Diego Macías

Phytoplankton pigment distribution in the northwestern Alboran Sea and meteorological forcing: A remote sensing study

A set of weekly-composite SeaWiFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field of view Sensor) imagery (from 1998 to 2004) has been used to asses the temporal and spatial variability of the surface chlorophyll distribution in the Northwestern Alboran Sea. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of the images series shows the existence of three different regions in which surface chlorophyll presents a homogeneous temporal behavior in the neighborhood of the Strait of Gibraltar. The temporal patterns of surface chlorophyll concentrations in each region have been characterized by studying the role of several forcing factors, mainly the zonal component of the wind field. The first identified region occupies the coastal area in front of Estepona and Malaga and shows the highest chlorophyll concentration in the entire region of study in absence of easterly winds. A second region is located far offshore, in the zone usually occupied by the Atlantic jet entering the Alboran Sea, showing high concentrations of chlorophyll when the easterlies blow. Finally, a third region has been situated in the normal location of the Western Alboran Gyre (WAG). The zonal wind field arises as a main forcing function in the modulation of the intensity and location of the upwelling processes in the area, while the entrance of the Atlantic jet seems to be the main agent feeding of all these processes.

Understanding the Causes of Recent Warming of Mediterranean Waters. How Much Could Be Attributed to Climate Change

During the past two decades, Mediterranean waters have been warming at a rather high rate resulting in scientific and social concern. This warming trend is observed in satellite data, field data and model simulations, and affects both surface and deep waters throughout the Mediterranean basin. However, the warming rate is regionally different and seems to change with time, which has led to the question of what causes underlie the observed trends. Here, we analyze available satellite information on sea surface temperature (SST) from the last 25 years using spectral techniques and find that more than half of the warming tendency during this period is due to a non-linear, wave-like tendency. Using a state of the art hydrodynamic model, we perform a hindcast simulation and obtain the simulated SST evolution of the Mediterranean basin for the last 52 years. These SST results show a clear sinusoidal tendency that follows the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) during the simulation period. Our results reveal that 58% of recent warming in Mediterranean waters could be attributed to this AMO-like oscillation, being anthropogenic-induced climate change only responsible for 42% of total trend. The observed acceleration of water warming during the 1990s therefore appears to be caused by a superimposition of anthropogenic-induced warming with the positive phase of the AMO, while the recent slowdown of this tendency is likely due to a shift in the AMO phase. It has been proposed that this change in the AMO phase will mask the effect of global warming in the forthcoming decades, and our results indicate that the same could also be applicable to the Mediterranean Sea. Henceforth, natural multidecadal temperature oscillations should be taken into account to avoid underestimation of the anthropogenic-induced warming of the Mediterranean basin in the future.

Climatic Control of Upwelling Variability along the Western North-American Coast

The high biological production of the California Current System (CCS) results from the seasonal development of equatorward alongshore winds that drive coastal upwelling. While several climatic fluctuation patterns influence the dynamics and biological productivity of the CCS, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDO) and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), the mechanisms of interaction between climatic oscillations and the CCS upwelling dynamics have remained obscure. Here, we use Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA) to reveal, for the first time, low-frequency concordance between the time series of climatic indices and upwelling intensity along the coast of western North America. Based on energy distributions in annual, semiannual and low-frequency signals, we can divide the coast into three distinct regions. While the annual upwelling signal dominates the energy spectrum elsewhere, low-frequency variability is maximal in the regions south of 33°N. Non-structured variability associated with storms and turbulent mixing is enhanced at northerly locations. We found that the low-frequency signal is significantly correlated with different climatic indices such as PDO, NPGO and ENSO with the correlation patterns being latitude-dependent. We also analyzed the correlations between this upwelling variability and sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) throughout the North Pacific to visualize and interpret the large-scale teleconnection dynamics in the atmosphere that drive the low-frequency coastal winds. These results provide new insights into the underlying mechanisms connecting climatic patterns with upwelling dynamics, which could enhance our prediction and forecast capabilities of the effects of future oceanographic and climatic variability in the CCS.

Biogeochemical control of marine productivity in the Mediterranean Sea during the last 50 years

The temporal dynamics of biogeochemical variables derived from a coupled 3-D model of the Mediterranean Sea are evaluated for the last 50 years (1960–2010) against independent data on fisheries catch per unit effort (CPUE) for the same time period. Concordant patterns are found in the time series of all of the biological variables (from the model and from fisheries statistics), with low values at the beginning of the series, a later increase, with maximum levels reached at the end of the 1990s, and a posterior stabilization. Spectral analysis of the annual biological time series reveals coincident low-frequency signals in all of them. The first, more energetic signal peaks around the year 2000, while the second, less energetic signal peaks near 1982. Almost identical low-frequency signals are found in the nutrient loads of the rivers and in the integrated nutrient levels in the surface marine ecosystem. Nitrate concentration shows a maximum level in 1998, with a later stabilization to present-day values, coincident with the first low-frequency signal found in the biological series. Phosphate shows maximum concentrations around 1982 and a posterior sharp decline, in concordance with the second low-frequency signal observed in the biological series. That result seems to indicate that the control of marine productivity (plankton to fish) in the Mediterranean is principally mediated through bottom-up processes that could be traced back to the characteristics of riverine discharges. The high sensitivity of CPUE time series to environmental conditions might be another indicator of the overexploitation of this marine ecosystem. Key Points Biogeochemical evolution of the Mediterranean over the past 50 years River nutrient loads drive primary and secondary productions Strong link between low trophic levels and fisheries

Fueling plankton production by a meandering frontal jet: a case study for the Alboran Sea (Western Mediterranean).

A three dimensional biophysical model was employed to illustrate the biological impacts of a meandering frontal jet, in terms of efficiency and persistency of the autotrophic frontal production, in marginal and semi-enclosed seas. We used the Alboran Sea of the Western Mediterranean as a case study. Here, a frontal jet with a width of 15–20 km, characterized by the relatively low density Atlantic water mass, flows eastward within the upper 100 m as a marked meandering current around the western and the eastern anticyclonic gyres prior to its attachment to the North African shelf/slope topography of the Algerian basin. Its inherent nonlinearity leads to the development of a strong ageostrophic cross-frontal circulation that supplies nutrients into the nutrient-starved euphotic layer and stimulates phytoplankton growth along the jet. Biological production is larger in the western part of the basin and decreases eastwards with the gradual weakening of the jet. The higher production at the subsurface levels suggests that the Alboran Sea is likely more productive than predicted by the satellite chlorophyll data. The Mediterranean water mass away from the jet and the interiors of the western and eastern anticyclonic gyres remain unproductive.

Recruiting at the Edge: Kinetic Energy Inhibits Anchovy Populations in the Western Mediterranean

The Strait of Gibraltar replenishes the Mediterranean with Atlantic waters through an intense eastward current known as the Atlantic Jet (AJ). The AJ fertilizes the southwestern Mediterranean and is considered to be the ultimate factor responsible for the comparatively high fish production of this region. Here, we perform an analysis of the available historical catches and catch per unit effort (CPUE), together with a long series of surface currents, kinetic energy and chlorophyll concentration. We show that the high kinetic energy of the AJ increases primary production but also negatively impacts the recruitment of anchovy. We contend that anchovy recruitment in the region is inhibited by the advection and dispersion of larvae and post-larvae during periods of strong advection by the AJ. The inhibitory impact of kinetic energy on anchovy landings is not a transient but rather a persistent state of the system. An exceptional combination of events creates an outbreak of this species in the Alboran Sea. These events depend on the Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange of water masses and, therefore, are highly sensitive to climate changes that are projected, though not always negatively, for fish landings.

Ecosystem services sustainability in the Mediterranean Sea: assessment of status and trends using multiple modelling approaches

Mediterranean ecosystems support important processes and functions that bring direct benefits to human society. Yet, marine ecosystem services are usually overlooked due to the challenges in identifying and quantifying them. This paper proposes the application of several biophysical and ecosystem modelling approaches to assess spatially and temporally the sustainable use and supply of selected marine ecosystem services. Such services include food provision, water purification, coastal protection, lifecycle maintenance and recreation, focusing on the Mediterranean region. Overall, our study found a higher number of decreasing than increasing trends in the natural capacity of the ecosystems to provide marine and coastal services, while in contrast the opposite was observed to be true for the realised flow of services to humans. Such a study paves the way towards an effective support for Blue Growth and the European maritime policies, although little attention is paid to the quantification of marine ecosystem services in this context. We identify a key challenge of integrating biophysical and socio-economic models as a necessary step to further this research.

Application of the Singular Spectrum Analysis Technique to Study the Recent Hiatus on the Global Surface Temperature Record

Global surface temperature has been increasing since the beginning of the 20th century but with a highly variable warming rate, and the alternation of rapid warming periods with ‘hiatus’ decades is a constant throughout the series. The superimposition of a secular warming trend with natural multidecadal variability is the most accepted explanation for such a pattern. Since the start of the 21st century, the surface global mean temperature has not risen at the same rate as the top-of-atmosphere radiative energy input or greenhouse gas emissions, provoking scientific and social interest in determining the causes of this apparent discrepancy. Multidecadal natural variability is the most commonly proposed cause for the present hiatus period. Here, we analyze the HadCRUT4 surface temperature database with spectral techniques to separate a multidecadal oscillation (MDV) from a secular trend (ST). Both signals combined account for nearly 88% of the total variability of the temperature series showing the main acceleration/deceleration periods already described elsewhere. Three stalling periods with very little warming could be found within the series, from 1878 to 1907, from 1945 to 1969 and from 2001 to the end of the series, all of them coincided with a cooling phase of the MDV. Henceforth, MDV seems to be the main cause of the different hiatus periods shown by the global surface temperature records. However, and contrary to the two previous events, during the current hiatus period, the ST shows a strong fluctuation on the warming rate, with a large acceleration (0.0085°C year−1 to 0.017°C year−1) during 1992–2001 and a sharp deceleration (0.017°C year−1 to 0.003°C year−1) from 2002 onwards. This is the first time in the observational record that the ST shows such variability, so determining the causes and consequences of this change of behavior needs to be addressed by the scientific community.

Historical changes of the Mediterranean Sea ecosystem: modelling the role and impact of primary productivity and fisheries changes over time

The Mediterranean Sea has been defined “under siege” because of intense pressures from multiple human activities; yet there is still insufficient information on the cumulative impact of these stressors on the ecosystem and its resources. We evaluate how the historical (1950–2011) trends of various ecosystems groups/species have been impacted by changes in primary productivity (PP) combined with fishing pressure. We investigate the whole Mediterranean Sea using a food web modelling approach. Results indicate that both changes in PP and fishing pressure played an important role in driving species dynamics. Yet, PP was the strongest driver upon the Mediterranean Sea ecosystem. This highlights the importance of bottom-up processes in controlling the biological characteristics of the region. We observe a reduction in abundance of important fish species (~34%, including commercial and non-commercial) and top predators (~41%), and increases of the organisms at the bottom of the food web (~23%). Ecological indicators, such as community biomass, trophic levels, catch and diversity indicators, reflect such changes and show overall ecosystem degradation over time. Since climate change and fishing pressure are expected to intensify in the Mediterranean Sea, this study constitutes a baseline reference for stepping forward in assessing the future management of the basin.

Productivity changes in the Mediterranean Sea for the twenty-first century in response to changes in the regional atmospheric forcing

The Mediterranean Sea is considered as a hotspot for climate change because of its location in the temperate region and because it is a semi-enclosed basin surrounded by highly populated and developed countries. Some expected changes include an increase in air temperature and changes in the periodicity and spatial distribution of rainfall. Alongside, demographic and politics changes will alter freshwater quantity and quality. All these changes will have an impact on the ecological status of marine ecosystems in the basin. We use a 3D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical coupled model of the entire Mediterranean Sea to explore potential changes in primary productivity (mean values and spatial distribution) under two emission scenarios (rcp4.5 and rcp8.5).To isolate the effects of changes in atmospheric conditions alone, in this ensemble of simulations rivers conditions (water flow and nutrient concentrations) are kept unchanged and equal to its climatological values for the last 10 years. Despite the significant warming trend, the mean integrated primary production rate in the entire basin remains almost unchanged. However characteristic spatial differences are consistently found in the different simulations. The western basin becomes more oligotrophic associated to a surface density decrease (increase stratification) because of the influence of the Atlantic waters which prevents surface salinity to increase. In the eastern basin, on the contrary, all model runs simulates an increase in surface production linked to a density increase (less stratification) because of the increasing evaporation rate. The simulations presented here demonstrate the basic response patterns of the Mediterranean Sea ecosystem to changing climatological conditions. Although unlikely, they could be considered as a ‘baseline’ of expected consequences of climatic changes on marine conditions in the Mediterranean.