Dierk Herzer

What does export diversification do for growth? An econometric analysis

It is frequently suggested that export diversification contributes to an acceleration of growth in developing countries. Horizontal export diversification into completely new export sectors may generate positive externalities on the rest of the economy as export oriented sectors gain from dynamic learning activities due to contacts with foreign purchasers and exposure to international competition. Vertical diversification out of primary into manufactured exports is also associated with growth since primary export sectors generally do not exhibit strong spillovers. Yet there have been remarkably few empirical investigations into the link between export diversification and growth. This paper attempts to examine the hypothesis that export diversification is linked to economic growth via externalities of learning-by-doing and learning-by-exporting fostered by competition in world markets. The diversification-led growth hypothesis is tested by estimating an augmented Cobb–Douglas production function on the basis of annual time series data from Chile. Based on the theory of cointegration three types of statistical methodologies are used: the Johansen trace test, a multivariate error-correction model and the dynamic OLS procedure. Given structural changes in the Chilean economy, time series techniques considering structural breaks are applied. The estimation results suggest that export diversification plays an important role in economic growth.

The Impact of a Customs Union between Turkey and the EU on Turkey's Exports to the EU

This article investigates Turkeys sectoral trade flows to the EU based on panel data from the period 1988 to 2002. Turkeys 16 most important export sectors are analysed. Emphasis is placed on the role of price competition, EU protection and transport costs in the export trade between Turkey and the EU. The empirical model used is an extended version of the gravity model. This study is also a contribution to the current discussion of whether Turkey should be granted full EU membership or a privileged partnership with the EU, which for Turkey would mean improved access to the EU market for its products, among other benefits. Our investigation focuses on the latter policy outcome: the impact of deepening the customs union between Turkey and the EU and applying the common agricultural policy (CAP) to Turkish agricultural exports. To this end, the impact of the 1996 customs union covering most industrial goods and processed agricultural goods, is evaluated on a sectoral level. We also perform simulations to quantify the impact of the potential inclusion of agricultural goods, as well as iron and steel and products thereof, into the full customs union between Turkey and the EU which is still to come.

Does foreign aid really raise per capita income? A time series perspective

We analyze the relationship between per capita income and foreign aid. We employ annual data and five‐year averages and carefully examine the time‐series properties of the data. Panel estimations with dynamic feasible generalized least‐squares (DFGLS) show that aid generally has an insignificant or minute negative significant impact on per capita income (particularly in highly aid‐dependent countries). This holds true for countries with different levels of human development and income, as well as for different regions. We also find that aid has a small positive impact on investment, but a significant negative impact on domestic savings (crowding out) and the real exchange rate (appreciation). (On analyse la relation entre le revenu per capita et l’aide etrangere. On utilise des donnees annuelles et des moyennes quinquennales, et on examine les proprietes de ces series chronologiques. Des estimations d’un modele dynamique utilisant des donnees de panel a l’aide de la methode des moindres carres quasi‐generalises montrent que l’aide a generalement un effet negatif minime ou insignifiant sur le revenu per capita (particulierement dans les pays qui dependent beaucoup de l’aide etrangere). Ce resultat tient tant pour des pays a divers niveaux de developpement et de revenus que pour differentes regions. On decouvre que l’aide a un petit effet positif sur l’investissement, mais un effet negatif significatif sur l’epargne (effet d’encombrement) et sur le taux de change reel (appreciation).)

How does foreign direct investment really affect developing countries' growth?

This paper contributes to the literature on foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in two main ways. First, we examine the effect of FDI on economic growth for 44 developing countries over the period 1970 to 2005 using heterogeneous panel cointegration techniques that are robust to omitted variables and endogenous regressors. In contrast to previous studies, we find that FDI has, on average, a negative effect on growth in developing countries, but that there are large cross-country differences in the growth effects of FDI. Second, we use a general-tospecific model selection approach to systematically search for country-specific factors explaining the cross-country differences in the growth effects of FDI. Contrary to previous results, we find that the cross-country differences in per capita income, human capital, openness, and financial market development cannot explain the cross-country differences in the growth effects of FDI. Instead, the growth effects of FDI are positively related to freedom from government intervention and freedom from business regulation, and negatively related to FDI volatility and natural resource dependence.

Export-led growth hypothesis: evidence for Chile

This study examines the export-led growth hypothesis using annual time series data from Chile. It addresses the problem of specification bias under which previous studies have suffered and focuses on the impact of manufactured and primary exports on the economic growth. In order to investigate if and how manufactured and primary exports affect economic growth via increases in productivity, the study uses the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) procedure for testing for Granger non-causality in Vector Autoregressive models that involve variables that are integrated in an arbitrary order and that are possibly cointegrated. The estimation results support the export-led growth hypothesis for Chile and at the same time point out to the differentiated impact of manufactured and primary exports on the economic growth.

Fdi And Income Inequality: Evidence From A Panel Of U.S. States

This study employs state-level panel data to explore the relationship between inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and income inequality in the United States. Using panel cointegration techniques that allow for cross-sectional heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and endogenous regressors, we find that the short-run effects of FDI on income inequality are insignificant or weakly significant and negative. In the long run, however, FDI exerts a significant and robust negative effect on income inequality in the United States. This result for the United States as a whole does not imply that FDI narrows income gaps in the long run in each individual state. There is considerable heterogeneity in the long-run effects of FDI on income inequality across states, with some states (21 out of 48 cases) exhibiting a positive relationship between FDI in income inequality.

Aid and Trade - A Donor's Perspective

Abstract One reason donors provide foreign aid is to support their exports to aid-recipient countries. Time series data for Germany suggests an average return of between US

Is there a long-run relationship between exports and imports in Chile?

1.04–

Does Foreign Aid Really Raise Per Capita Income? A Time Series Perspective (Est‐Ce Que L’Aide Étrangère Augmente Vraiment Le Revenu Per Capita? Une Approche Par Les Séries Chronologiques)

1.50 for each US dollar of aid spent by Germany. Although this is well below previous estimates, the value is robust to different specifications and econometric approaches. Interestingly, we find strong evidence of crowding out between bilateral donors in the sense that bilateral aid from other EU members significantly reduces exports from Germany to the recipients. The evidence suggests that, in the long run, aid causes exports and not vice versa. We discuss the implications these findings might have for aid volumes and allocation.

A Further Examination of the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis

This study examines the long-run relationship between Chilean exports and imports during the 1975 to 2004 period using unit root tests and cointegration techniques that allow for endogenously determined structural breaks. The results indicate that there exists a long-run equilibrium between exports and imports in Chile, despite the balance-of-payments crisis of 1982/83. This finding implies that Chiles macroeconomic policies have been effective in the long-run and suggests that Chile is not in violation of its international budget constraint.