Dietmar Lindenberger

Optimization of solar district heating systems: seasonal storage, heat pumps, and cogeneration☆

The dynamic energy, emission, and cost optimization model deeco is further developed and applied to the analysis of solar district heating systems with seasonal storage in a pilot project of the Bavarian Research Foundation. The optimum integration of condensing boilers, compression and absorption heat pumps, and cogeneration of heat and power is computed for 100 well insulated housing units with an annual total heat demand of 616 MWh. Collector areas between 1 and 2.5 m2 per MWh heat demand and water storage volumes between 1.2 and 4.2 m3 per m2 collector area satisfy between 32 and 95 per cent of the total heat demand by solar thermal heat. Compared with a reference case with individual condensing boilers and electricity taken from the public grid, selected scenarios achieve (non-renewable primary) energy savings between 15 and 35% associated with cost increases between −20% and 140%; cogeneration turns out to be quite attractive from an economical point of view. With cogeneration and a solar contribution to the heat supply of 80%, emission reductions of CO2-equivalents by 33%, SO2 by 20%, and NOx by 22% can be achieved at cost increases of 120%. Fossil fuel savings of more than 40% are possible if electricity is produced from non-fossil energy sources.

The Costs of Electricity Systems with a High Share of Fluctuating Renewables: A Stochastic Investment and Dispatch Optimization Model for Europe

Renewable energies are meant to produce a large share of the future electricity demand. However, the availability of wind and solar power depends on local weather conditions and therefore weather characteristics must be considered when optimizing the future electricity mix. In this article we analyze the impact of the stochastic availability of wind and solar energy on the cost-minimal power plant mix and the related total system costs. To determine optimal conventional, renewable and storage capacities for dierent shares of renewables, we apply a stochastic investment and dispatch optimization model to the European electricity market. The model considers stochastic feed-in structures and full load hours of wind and solar technologies and dierent correlations between regions and technologies. Key ndings include the overestimation of uctuating renewables and underestimation of total system costs compared to deterministic investment and dispatch models. Furthermore, solar technologies are - relative to wind turbines - underestimated when neglecting negative correlations between wind speeds and solar radiation.

Capital, labor, energy and creativity: modeling innovation diffusion ☆

Abstract Economic growth in the USA, Japan, and Germany during three decades and the recessions during the energy crises are well reproduced by production functions that depend on capital, labor, energy and three technology parameters. Time changes of these parameters model innovation diffusion, driven by creativity. In all three countries the time-averaged elasticities of production of energy exceed the share of energy cost in total factor cost by about an order of magnitude, and those of labor are much less than labors cost share. Only for capital; elasticities and shares are roughly in equilibrium.

Thermodynamic laws, economic methods and the productive power of energy

Abstract Energy plays only a minor role in orthodox theories of economic growth, because standard economic equilibrium conditions say that the output elasticity of a production factor, which measures the factors productive power, is equal to the factors share in total factor cost. Having commanded only a tiny cost share of about 5 percent so far, energy is often neglected altogether. On the other hand, energy conversion in the machines of the capital stock has been the basis of industrial growth. How can the physically obvious economic importance of energy be reconciled with the conditions for economic equilibrium, which result from the maximization of profit or overall welfare? We show that these equilibrium conditions no longer yield the equality of cost shares and output elasticities, if the optimization calculus takes technological constraints on the combinations of capital, labor, and energy into account. New econometric analyses of economic growth in Germany, Japan, and the USA yield output elasticities that are for energy much larger and for labor much smaller than their cost shares. Social consequences are discussed.

German Nuclear Policy Reconsidered: Implications for the Electricity Market

In the aftermath of the nuclear catastrophe in Fukushima-Daiichi, German nuclear policy has been reconsidered. This paper demonstrates the economic effects of an accelerated nuclear phase-out in Germany on the European electricity market. An optimization model is used to analyze two scenarios with different lifetimes for nuclear plants in Germany (phase-out vs. prolongation). Based on political targets, both scenarios assume significant electricity demand reductions and a high share of renewable energy sources in Germany. We find that electricity costs and prices in the European system are higher in the phase-out scenario, especially in Germany, associated with welfare losses. Due to lifetime extensions of existing fossil-fired plants as well as moderate capacity additions, we conclude that the generation sector can generally cope with the phase-out under the given assumptions. Yet, we emphasize that this requires a substantial and costly transformation of the supply and the demand side.

Modernization of local energy systems

This paper analyzes modernization options for a local energy system, including both demand reduction and supply-related measures. The high-resolution optimization model deeco (dynamic energy, emission, and cost optimization) is extended by developing techniques to support conventional insulation measures, transparent insulation, and switchable transparent insulation. Supply-side technologies include gas-fired boilers, heat pumps, solar collectors, and the cogeneration of heat and electricity. Compared to common practice comprising oil-fired boilers and public grid electricity, gas-fired cogeneration is a favorable option, although sensitive to electricity tariffs. Given the current prices of fossil fuels, extensive retrofitted thermal insulation would reduce CO2-equivalent emissions by about 20% and increase overall costs by 25%.

How energy conversion drives economic growth far from the equilibrium of neoclassical economics

Energy conversion in the machines and information processors of the capital stock drives the growth of modern economies. This is exemplified for Germany, Japan, and the USA during the second half of the 20th century: econometric analyses reveal that the output elasticity, i.e. the economic weight, of energy is much larger than energy?s share in total factor cost, while for labor just the opposite is true. This is at variance with mainstream economic theory according to which an economy should operate in the neoclassical equilibrium, where output elasticities equal factor cost shares. The standard derivation of the neoclassical equilibrium from the maximization of profit or of time-integrated utility disregards technological constraints. We show that the inclusion of these constraints in our nonlinear-optimization calculus results in equilibrium conditions, where generalized shadow prices destroy the equality of output elasticities and cost shares. Consequently, at the prices of capital, labor, and energy we have known so far, industrial economies have evolved far from the neoclassical equilibrium. This is illustrated by the example of the German industrial sector evolving on the mountain of factor costs before and during the first and the second oil price explosion. It indicates the influence of the ?virtually binding? technological constraints on entrepreneurial decisions, and the existence of ?soft constraints? as well. Implications for employment and future economic growth are discussed.

Energy Reference Forecast and Energy Policy Targets for Germany

The core of the project “Development of Energy Markets - Energy Reference Forecast” is a conditional forecast of probable energy industry development up to the year 2030, complemented by a Trend Scenario extending to the year 2050. In addition, a Target Scenario and sensitivity calculations are presented, along with several discussions surrounding a number of focal point topics. In the Reference Forecast and Trend Scenario, the goals of the German government’s Energy Concept will, for the most part, not be achieved. The Target Scenario shows what would be required in order to attain the energy and climate protection objectives defined in the Energy Concept.

Energie, Wirtschaftswachstum und Beschäftigung

Das von den Produktionsfaktoren Kapital, Arbeit und Energie getragene Wachstum der Wertschopfung in unterschiedlich strukturierten Wirtschaftssektoren Deutschlands, Japans und der USA wahrend dreier Dekaden wird okonometrisch beschrieben. Verbesserungen in der Energieeffizienz der Kapitalstocke nach der ersten Olpreisexplosion lassen sich identifizieren, und die beobachteten Wertschopfungsentwicklungen mit nur kleinen Residuen reproduzieren. Die Produktionselastizitaten von Arbeit bzw. Energie, d. h. — grob gesagt — die prozentualen Anderungen der Wertschopfung bei einprozentiger Anderung des Arbeits- bzw. Energieeinsatzes, liegen im zeitlichen Mittel deutlich unter bzw. uber den jeweiligen Faktorkostenanteilen. Die steuerpolitische Bedeutung dieses Ungleichgewichts, das technischen Fortschritt in Richtung zunehmender Automation und abnehmender Beschaftigung induziert, wird diskutiert.