Dilip C. Nath

A Future Journey to the Elderly Support in Bangladesh

Bangladesh is not an exception from the global phenomenon of demographic aging. It is a relatively new issue in the country as its demographic transition started recently. An important issue on aging study is the support facility to the elderly. The support system to the elderly is gradually decreasing in this country though the burden does not reach the alarming situation. This paper tries to show the future path of demographic support capacity for the elderly based on secondary (1981–2001) and projected (2011–2071) data. The study shows a future gloomy picture of the elderly support facility in terms of both economic and caring aspects. This dimension of future inevitable aging problem needs proper attention to the policy makers for taking sustainable aging policies. Introduction of this agenda to the nation’s five-year planning will be effective to face the problem phase by phase.

Association between climatic variables and malaria incidence: a study in Kokrajhar district of Assam, India.

A favorable climatic condition for transmission of malaria prevails in Kokrajhar district throughout the year. A sizeable part of the district is covered by forest due to which dissimilar dynamics of malaria transmission emerge in forest and non-forest areas. Observed malaria incidence rates of forest area, non-forest area and the whole district over the period 2001-2010 were considered for analyzing temporal correlation between malaria incidence and climatic variables. Associations between the two were examined by Pearson correlation analysis. Cross-correlation tests were performed between pre-whitened series of climatic variable and malaria series. Linear regressions were used to obtain linear relationships between climatic factors and malaria incidence, while weighted least squares regression was used to construct models for explaining and estimating malaria incidence rates. Annual concentration of malaria incidence was analyzed by Markham technique by obtaining seasonal index. Forest area and non-forest area have distinguishable malaria seasons. Relative humidity was positively correlated with z malaria incidence, while temperature series were negatively correlated with non-forest malaria incidence. There was higher seasonality of concentration of malaria in the forest area than non-forest area. Significant correlation between annual changes in malaria cases in forest area and temperature was observed (coeff=0.689, p=0.040). Separate reliable models constructed for forecasting malaria incidence rates based on the combined influence of climatic variables on malaria incidence in different areas of the district were able to explain substantial percentage of observed variability in the incidence rates (R2adj=45.4%, 50.6%, 47.2%; p< .001 for all). There is an intricate association between climatic variables and malaria incidence of the district. Climatic variables influence malaria incidence in forest area and non-forest area in different ways. Rainfall plays a primary role in characterizing malaria incidences in the district. Malaria parasites in the district had adapted to a relative humidity condition higher than the normal range for transmission in India. Instead of individual influence of the climatic variables, their combined influence was utilizable for construction of models.

Age at first reproduction and economic change in the context of differing kinship ecologies.

Kinship systems which tend to be based on ecologies of subsistence also assign differential power, privilege, and control to human connections that present pathways for manipulation of resource access and transfer. They can be used in this way to channel resource concentrations in women and hence their reproductive value. Thus, strategic female life course trade‐offs and their timing are likely to be responsive to changing preferences for qualities in women as economic conditions change. Female life histories are studied in two ethnic groups with differing kinship systems in NE India where the competitive market economy is now being felt by most households. Patrilineal Bengali (599 women) practice patrilocal residence with village exogamy and matrilineal Khasi (656 women) follow matrilocal residence with village endogamy, both also normatively preferring three‐generation extended households. These households have helpful senior women and significantly greater income. Age at first reproduction (AFR), achieved adult growth (height) and educational level (greater than 6 years or less) are examined in reproductive women, ages 16–50. In both groups, women residing normatively are older at AFR and taller than women residing nonnormatively. More education is also associated with senior women. Thus, normative residence may place a woman in the best reproductive location, and those with higher reproductive and productive potential are often chosen as households face competitive market conditions. In both groups residing in favorable reproductive locations is associated with a faster pace of fertility among women, as well as lower offspring mortality among Khasi, to compensate for a later start. Am. J. Hum. Biol., 2009.

The Behavioral Ecology of Family Planning

Family planning is the usual modern route to producing a small family. Can human behavioral ecology provide a framework for understanding family planning behavior? Hillard S. Kaplan (Yearb. Phys. Anthropol. 39:91–135) has proposed a general theory of human parental investment based on the importance of skills development in children. As modern, skills-based, competitive market economies are established, parental investment strategies would be predicted to become oriented toward producing increasingly competitive offspring in a pattern of coordinated investment in their embodied capital—in other words, skills training along with good health to ensure their long-term productivity. Parental embodied capital and resources are also expected to be associated with motivation to produce competitive offspring. The basic parental investment trade-off between quality and quantity should predict greater investment in fewer children and the adoption of family planning behavior. Data on family planning in two ethnic groups in Northeast India (Khasi and Bengali) currently experiencing early-phase transition into modern market economies from very different social and ecological baselines are examined within this analytical framework. The results show a mixture of strategies in conjunction with family planning that involve decreased as well as increased investment in the embodied capital of children among Bengali and a divergence of investments in education and health among Khasi. These mixtures of strategies provide some insight into the motivations to use family planning in the face of economic transition, given differing local cultural and ecological conditions and the opportunity structures they provide.

The Behavioral Ecology of Family Planning in Two Ethnic Groups in Northeast India

Family planning is the usual modern route to producing a small family. Can human behavioral ecology provide a framework for understanding family planning behavior? Hillard S. Kaplan (Yearb. Phys. Anthropol. 39:91-135) has proposed a general theory of human parental investment based on the importance of skills development in children. As modern, skills-based, competitive market economies are established, parental investment strategies would be predicted to become oriented toward producing increasingly competitive offspring in a pattern of coordinated investment in their embodied capital—in other words, skills training along with good health to ensure their long-term productivity. Parental embodied capital and resources are also expected to be associated with motivation to produce competitive offspring. The basic parental investment trade-off between quality and quantity should predict greater investment in fewer children and the adoption of family planning behavior. Data on family planning in two ethnic groups in Northeast India (Khasi and Bengali) currently experiencing early-phase transition into modern market economies from very different social and ecological baselines are examined within this analytical framework. The results show a mixture of strategies in conjunction with family planning that involve decreased as well as increased investment in the embodied capital of children among Bengali and a divergence of investments in education and health among Khasi. These mixtures of strategies

Malaria Prevalence in Forest and Nonforest Areas of Kokrajhar District of Assam

An analysis of malaria prevalence and its trends in Kokrajhar district of Assam over the last ten years starting from 2001 to 2010 shows that the occurrence of malaria in the forest area is significantly higher than in the nonforest area (𝜒2=7819.87,𝑃<.0001). The transmission of malaria parasite takes place through only two Plasmodium species of P. falciparum (PF) and P. vivax (PV) in both the forest and nonforest areas of the district, and the prevalence of P. falciparum has been found higher. The annual blood examination rate (ABER) is relatively lower in forest area than the nonforest area while annual parasite incidence (API) of the former was much higher. Nearly one-third of the population of the district is under high risk of being affected. The malaria API and forest cover of the district during the period are negatively correlated with a coefficient of −0.57. Special measures are necessary to contain the transmission of malaria in forest area.

Rotation Sampling Scheme Using Transformed Auxiliary Variable

Abstract The present work deals in developing an estimator of current population mean in two-occasion rotation (successive) sampling utilizing the information on a transformed auxiliary variable. It is assumed that an auxiliary variable (stable) positively correlated with the study variable is available at both the occasion. Properties of the proposed estimator have been discussed in detail and its performance has been compared with sample mean estimator and optimum successive sampling estimator. The concluding remarks are discussed justifying utility of the proposed sampling scheme. Theoretical results have been well supported with simulated data.

Bayesian bounds for population proportion under ranked set sampling

ABSTRACT In this article, we consider a dichotomous population characterized by the parameter p defined as the proportion of individuals in the population possessing certain characteristic. The unknown proportion p is our parameter of interest in the present work. Under the assumption that p is a random quantity we derive a Bayesian Crammer–Rao (BCR) bound in connection with the estimation of p. The proposed procedure is based on a ranked set sample (RSS) observed on the variable of interest which is binary in nature. This RSS-based approach is compared with its corresponding SRS (simple random sample) counterpart in the cases of both perfect and imperfect rankings. The proposed procedure is applied for estimating the proportion of children aged months (to the mothers aged 15–49 years of rural India) who are not immunized with the vaccine against measles using National Family Health Survey-3 (2005–2006) data of India.

A selection modelling approach to analysing missing data of liver Cirrhosis patients

Abstract Methods for dealing with missing data in clinical trials have received increased attention from the regulators and practitioners in the pharmaceutical industry over the last few years. Consideration of missing data in a study is important as they can lead to substantial biases and have an impact on overall statistical power. This problem may be caused by patients dropping before completion of the study. The new guidelines of the International Conference on Harmonization place great emphasis on the importance of carefully choosing primary analysis methods based on clearly formulated assumptions regarding the missingness mechanism. The reason for dropout or withdrawal would be either related to the trial (e.g. adverse event, death, unpleasant study procedures, lack of improvement) or unrelated to the trial (e.g. moving away, unrelated disease). We applied selection models on liver cirrhosis patient data to analyse the treatment efficiency comparing the surgery of liver cirrhosis patients with consenting for participation HFLPC (Human Fatal Liver Progenitor Cells) infusion with surgery alone. It was found that comparison between treatment conditions when missing values are ignored potentially leads to biased conclusions.

The Child Health Scenario in India: An Application of Bayesian Approach

Background : The child mortality rate of a place is an indication of the basic health facility prevalent there. A place with better medical facility records low child mortality. The child mortality rate reduction is not as expected in many developing countries. In last two decades the child death rate has not been reduced significantly in India. The aim of this work is to explore the child death rate in different Indian states. Materials and Methods : The Bayesian approach has been applied to control the over dispersion due to presence of zero (i.e. no-death count) in the data set. The Zero Inflated Poisson (ZIP) has been applied to control the presence of over the Zero Inflation Distribution. The data set has been considered from Indian National Health and Family Survey (NFHS-3) conducted during 2005-2006. The women having at least one living child of age less than five years has been selected as study subjects. Results : The state of Goa has attained the best position recording the lowest child death rate (0.03) and followed by Kerala (0.08). The Arunachal Pradesh (0.75) has attained the last rank among all states in India. In case of child death for women who have at least one living male children Tamilnadu has the lowest child death. Conclusion : In India it has been observed that married couples accept family planning only after having sufficient number of children. This is mainly because as the child mortality rate is higher so only few of their children would survive to adulthood. Reduction in infant mortality over time and the awareness of such improvements among the people in the community may ultimately lead to lesser number of children per couple due to the removal of the fear of death to their children. It is, therefore, necessary, from the policy point of view, to estimate the actual levels of child mortality of an area under study at different period of time. Attempt shall also be made to explore the extent of changes in the levels of child mortality and its causes over time.