Dimitris Christelis

Differences in Portfolios Across Countries: Economic Environment versus Household Characteristics

We document and study international differences in both ownership and holdings of stocks, private businesses, homes, and mortgages among households aged fifty or more in thirteen countries, using new and comparable survey data. We employ counterfactual techniques to decompose observed differences across the Atlantic, within the US, and within Europe into those arising from differences in population characteristics and differences in economic environments. We then correlate the latter differences to country-level indicators. Ownership across the range of the assets considered tends to be more widespread among US households. We document that shortly prior to the current crisis, US households tended to invest larger amounts in stocks and smaller ones in homes, and to have larger mortgages in older age, even controlling for characteristics. This is consistent with the high prevalence of negative equity associated with the current crisis. More generally, we find that differences in household characteristics often play a small role, while differences in economic environments tend to explain most of the observed differences in ownership rates and in amounts held. The latter differences are much more pronounced among European countries than among US regions, suggesting further potential for harmonization of policies and institutions.

Consumption Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving

Using survey data from a representative sample of Dutch households, we estimate the strength of the precautionary saving motive by eliciting subjective expectations on future consumption. We find that expected consumption risk is higher for the young and the self-employed, and is correlated positively with income risk. We insert these subjective expectations (rather than consumption realizations, as in the existing literature) in an Euler equation for consumption, and estimate the degree of prudence by associating expected consumption risk with expected consumption growth. Robust OLS and IV estimates both indicate a coefficient of relative prudence of around 2.

The Impact of Health Insurance on Stockholding: A Regression Discontinuity Approach

Using data from the US Health and Retirement Study, we study the causal effect of increased health insurance coverage through Medicare and the associated reduction in health-related background risk on financial risk-taking. Given the onset of Medicare at age 65, we identify our effect of interest using a regression discontinuity approach. We find that getting Medicare coverage induces stockholding for those with at least some college education, but not for their less-educated counterparts. Hence, our results indicate that a reduction in background risk induces financial risk-taking in individuals for whom informational and pecuniary stock market participation costs are relatively low.

Early Life Conditions and Financial Risk-Taking in Older Age

Using life-history survey data from eleven European countries, we investigate whether childhood conditions, such as socioeconomic status, cognitive abilities and health problems influence portfolio choice and risk attitudes later in life. After controlling for the corresponding conditions in adulthood, we find that superior cognitive skills in childhood (especially mathematical abilities) are positively associated with stock and mutual fund ownership. Childhood socioeconomic status, as indicated by the number of rooms and by having at least some books in the house during childhood, is also positively associated with the ownership of stocks, mutual funds and individual retirement accounts, as well as with the willingness to take financial risks. On the other hand, less risky assets like bonds are not affected by early childhood conditions. We find only weak effects of childhood health problems on portfolio choice in adulthood. Finally, favorable childhood conditions affect the transition in and out of risky asset ownership, both by making divesting less likely and by facilitating investing (i.e., transitioning from non-ownership to ownership).

Financial Decisions under the Shadow of Terrorism

We investigate, using the 2002 US Health and Retirement Study, individuals’ insecurity and expectations about terrorism, and their effects on household financial decisions. We find that those without any military experience, the less educated, the more religious and females worry a lot about their safety. In addition, fear of terrorism discourages households from investing in stocks and owning a business, while it makes them more likely to buy term life insurance.

Asymmetric Consumption Effects of Transitory Income Shocks

We use the responses of a representative sample of Dutch households to survey questions that ask how much they would consume of an unexpected, transitory, and positive income change, and by how much they would reduce their consumption in response to an unexpected, transitory, and negative income change. The questionnaire distinguishes between relatively small income changes (a one-month increase or drop in income), and relatively larger ones (equal to three months of income). The results are broadly in line with models of intertemporal choice with precautionary saving, borrowing constraints, and finite horizons.

The Cognitive Impact of Social Activities in Older Age

Using harmonized micro data from 17 European countries, we investigate the causal impact of being socially active on old age cognition. To this effect, we employ nonparametric bounds-based partial identification methods that require fairly weak assumptions. We find that social activities have a strong positive effect on cognition, as the narrowest identification regions of the treatment effect exclude zero. This result is more likely to hold for females than for males. We also provide evidence, again using bounds-based estimation, on the economic significance of social participation by examining the beneficial effect of higher cognition on households’ economic well-being.Using harmonized micro data from 17 European countries, we investigate the causal impact of being socially active on old age cognition. To this effect, we employ nonparametric bounds-based partial identification methods that require fairly weak assumptions. We find that social activities have a strong positive effect on cognition, as the narrowest identification regions of the treatment effect exclude zero. This result is more likely to hold for females than for males. We also provide evidence, again using bounds-based estimation, on the economic significance of social participation by examining the beneficial effect of higher cognition on households’ economic well-being.

Entrepreneurship Among Baby Boomers: Recent Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study

We study entrepreneurship among Baby Boomers using data from the US Health and Retirement Study (HRS). Using two different definitions of entrepreneurship (being self-employed and being a business owner), we compare entrepreneurs to non-entrepreneurs and entrepreneurs who were age 52–65 in the 2012 HRS to their counterparts (i.e., those age 52–65) in the 1998 HRS. We find that entrepreneurs are systematically different from the rest of the population; specifically, they are more highly educated, healthier, wealthier, and more likely to be white and male. When we compare the cohort of Baby Boomer entrepreneurs surveyed in 2012 to entrepreneurs in the same age range in 1998, we find that Baby Boomer entrepreneurs are older, are less likely to be white, have a higher level of education, have fewer children and grandchildren, and are in poorer physical health. Finally, using partial identification methods, we find some evidence for a positive causal impact of wealth on business ownership, but only for the highest levels of wealth.

Trust in the Central Bank and Inflation Expectations

Using micro data from the 2015 Dutch CentERpanel, we examine whether trust in the European Central Bank (ECB) influences individuals’ expectations and uncertainty about future inflation, and also whether it anchors inflation expectations. We find that higher trust in the ECB lowers inflation expectations on average, and significantly reduces uncertainty about future inflation. Moreover, results from quantile regressions suggest that trusting the ECB increases (lowers) inflation expectations when the latter are below (above) the ECB’s inflation target. These findings hold after controlling for people’s knowledge about the objectives of the ECB. In addition, higher trust in the ECB raises expectations about GDP growth. The findings suggest that a central bank can influence the economy through people’s expectations, even in times when conventional monetary policy tools likely have weak effects.