Dinuk Jayasuriya

Female parliamentarians and economic growth: Evidence from a large panel

This article investigates whether female political representation affects economic growth. Panel estimates for 119 democracies using fixed-effects specifications and a system generalized method of moments approach suggest that, over recent decades, countries with higher shares of women in parliament have had faster growing economies.

Associations of mental distress with residency in conflict zones, ethnic minority status, and potentially modifiable social factors following conflict in Sri Lanka: a nationwide cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND The subject of post-conflict mental health lacks studies that are nationally representative or large enough to allow robust examination of levels of distress according to residency in geographical zones of conflict and ethnic minority status. We undertook a nationwide study in Sri Lanka to address these issues. METHODS We used tablet devices to survey 20,632 people across 18 of 25 districts in Sri Lanka, of which nine were purposefully selected and nine randomly selected districts. Based on their exposure to war and levels of population displacement, these districts were classified as being in the severe, moderate, or minimal conflict zones. Trained local fieldworkers did private interviews with the participants in the local language; responses were entered directly into the tablet devices. The questions assessed exposure to a wide range of stresses, including ongoing adversities, threat or protection issues, and service access factors, and respondents provided categorical responses (yes/no) to a list of items. We used the 25-item Hopkins Symptom Checklist to measure depression and anxiety in participants. We used multivariate analysis and calculated population-attributable fractions to estimate potential improvement in mental distress if modifiable factors were addressed. FINDINGS Our results showed a stepwise increase in symptoms of depression (10%, 33%, 40%) and anxiety (13%, 23%, 23%) across minimal, moderate, and severe conflict zones, respectively. Membership of an ethnic minority group was associated with depression (Tamil odds ratio [OR] 2·4 [95% CI 1·8-3·1], other ethnic minority OR 2·7 [2·1-3·6]) and anxiety (Tamil OR 1·5 [1·1-2·0], other ethnic minority OR 1·5 [1·2-1·8]). Other fixed characteristics associated with depression and anxiety were older age (both depression and anxiety; OR 2·7 [95% CI 2·0-3·7] for anxiety and 2·3 [1·7-3·0] for depression), being married (anxiety only; OR 1·5 [95% CI 1·1-2·1]), and time spent in camps for internally displaced people (anxiety only; OR 1·4 [95% CI 1·0-1·9]). Modifiable characteristics were threat or protection issues (depression OR 1·8 [95% CI 1·2-2·8], anxiety OR 1·8 [1·3-2·6]) and scarcity of food (depression OR 1·4 [1·2-1·6], anxiety OR 1·4 [1·2-2·7]), loss of job (OR 1·2 [95% CI 1·2-1·4] for anxiety), and proximity to army camps (OR 1·6 [95% CI 1·2-2·2] for depression). Allaying of safety concerns had the potential to reduce depression by 53% and anxiety by 57%, with other factors (removal of army camps from proximity and addressing food scarcity, loss of jobs and threat/protection issues) making smaller contributions to a reduction in depression and anxiety. INTERPRETATION Our findings offer a basis for detecting high-risk groups and provide directions in devising policies and programmes aimed at alleviating psychological distress in Sri Lanka. Restoration of safety seems to be crucial to mental health recovery. FUNDING Australian National University-Department of Immigration Border Protection Collaborative Research Program.

Improvements in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Rankings: Do they Translate into Greater Foreign Direct Investment Inflows?

The World Banks Ease of Doing Business reports have been ranking countries since 2006. However, do improvements in rankings generate greater foreign direct investment inflows? This study is the first to test such a proposition empirically with Arellano-Bond dynamic panel estimators using the official rankings from 2006 to 2009. The paper shows this relationship is significant for the average country. However, when the sample is restricted to developing countries, the results suggest an improved ranking has, on average, an insignificant (albeit positive) influence on foreign direct investment inflows. Although robust, this result should be taken with caution given that it refers to the average developing country using data across a four-year time period. Finally, the paper demonstrates that, on average, countries that undertake large-scale reforms relative to other countries do not necessarily attract greater foreign direct investment inflows. This analysis may have important ramifications for developing country governments wanting to improve their Doing Business Rankings in the hope of attracting foreign direct investment inflows.

Assessing the factorial structure and measurement invariance of PTSD by gender and ethnic groups in Sri Lanka: An analysis of the modified Harvard Trauma Questionnaire (HTQ)

The Harvard Trauma Questionnaire (HTQ) remains the most widely used screening measure for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in the refugee and post-conflict field. The present study is the first to test the factorial structure and measurement invariance of the HTQ according to DSM-5 criteria across gender and ethnic groups in the ethnically diverse society of post-conflict Sri Lanka. The survey sample included 5136 participants (86% response rate) followed up 12 months after a baseline nationally representative survey undertaken in Sri Lanka in 2014. Exposure to conflict-related traumatic experiences (TEs) generating a trauma count (TC), and symptoms of PTSD were assessed using a modified version of the HTQ adapted to the local context. The final analytic sample included 4260 participants after excluding records with missing data on key variables. We conducted Multigroup Confirmatory Factor Analysis (MG-CFA) to test the four-factor (DSM-5 consistent) and three-factor (DSM-IV-TR) models of PTSD, then assessing measurement invariance of the four factor model by gender and ethnic groups. The three-factor and four-factor DSM-5 model each produced a good fit across the sample as a whole. In addition, there was configural, metric, and scalar invariance for the four-factor model both by gender and ethnicity. The trauma count was directly associated with each of the symptom domains of the four factor model. Our findings provide support for the capacity of the modified HTQ to measure the DSM5 construct of PTSD across gender and key ethnic groupings in Sri Lanka. Confirmation of our findings in other cultures will be important.

Twelve-month trajectories of depressive and anxiety symptoms and associations with traumatic exposure and ongoing adversities: a latent trajectory analysis of a community cohort exposed to severe conflict in Sri Lanka

We conducted a 12-month follow-up of a population sample of adults from districts (Mannar, Killinochi, Mullaitivu and Jaffna) exposed to high levels of mass conflict in Sri Lanka, the aim of the present analysis being to identify trajectories of depression and anxiety symptoms and their associations with exposure to psychological trauma and ongoing living adversities. The cohort of 1275 adults (response 86%) followed-up in 2015 was a structured subsample drawn from the baseline nationally representative survey conducted in 2014 across 25 districts in Sri Lanka. Interviews were conducted using electronic tablets by field workers applying contextually adapted indices of trauma exposure, ongoing adversities and symptoms of depression and anxiety. Latent transition analysis revealed a three-class longitudinal model from which four composite trajectories were derived, comprising a persistent symptom trajectory (n=555, 43.5%), an incident or new onset trajectory (n=170, 13.3%), a recovery trajectory (n=299, 23.5%) and a persistently low-symptom trajectory (n=251, 19.7%). Factors associated with both the persistent symptom and incident trajectories were female gender, past trauma exposure and lack of access to health services. Loss of a job was uniquely associated with the persisting trajectory at follow-up. The recovery trajectory comprised a higher proportion of men, older persons and those without risk factors. Our findings assist in translating epidemiologic data into public policy and practice by indicating the importance of stable employment and the provision of healthcare as key factors that may act to reduce anxiety and depressive symptoms in the post-conflict phase. The findings also confirm that women are at high risk of mental distress. Brief screening for trauma exposure in populations with high levels of exposure to mass conflict may assist in defining those at risk of ongoing symptoms of anxiety and depression.

Investment and advisory: Case studies for private sector development in Papua New Guinea and China

The importance of the private sector in fostering economic development has been widely accepted. However, little has been written on the effectiveness of aids support for private sector development. This paper presents case studies of how the International Finance Corporation, a member of the World Bank Group, supports two private institutions in Papua New Guinea and China to increase the access to finance to underserved groups. It will also highlight the benefits of IFCs combined approach of investing in the companies (investment services) and providing technical assistance (advisory services) to build organizational capacity.