Diogo Costa Buarque

MGB-IPH model for hydrological and hydraulic simulation of large floodplain river systems coupled with open source GIS

Abstract Large-scale hydrological models are useful tools for water resources studies, however, river network flow routing is generally represented using simplified methods, which may lead to simulation errors in flat regions. We present recent improvements to the large-scale hydrological model MGB-IPH to improve its capability of simulating large river basins with extensive floodplains. We also describe the coupling of MGB-IPH to an open source GIS and a large set of developed pre-processing tools with a user-friendly interface for remote sensing data preparation and output visualization. The new features implemented are demonstrated applying the model to the whole Araguaia river basin (380,000 km2). Results are compared to the previous MGB-IPH routing method, observed flow and water level data and remote sensing imagery, showing improvement in the representation of floodplain inundation dynamics. The test case also shows that the proposed model software framework amplifies possibilities of large-scale simulation of ungauged basins.

Fatores relacionados à suscetibilidade da erosão em entressulcos sob condições de uso e manejo do solo

This study evaluated factors related to the suscetibility to the interrill soil erosion in an Entisol subjected to different degrees of soil use and management. The experiment was carried out under laboratory conditions using samples collected from tobacco fields and disturbed soil placed in erosion pans measuring (0.23 m2) with a slope of 0.09 m m-1. The experimental design was in randomized blocks. Simulated rainfall intensity of 100 mm h-1 was applied to the following treatments: (I) conventionally tilled soil; (II) no-till soil; and (III) native forest soil. Total kinetic energy (rainfall and runoff) to soil loss, average rate of detachment, and aggregate stability indexes were used to assess susceptibility to interrill erosion. Results show that the factors related with the susceptibility to interrill erosion are associated not just to the characteristics and properties that confer cohesivity to soil, but also to those factors that affect runoff hydraulics and therefore the sediment transport phase as well.

Evaluation of upper Uruguay river basin (Brazil) operational flood forecasts

System for hydrological forecasting and alert running in an operational way are important tools for floods impacts reduction. The present study describes the development and results evaluation of an operational discharge forecasting system of the upper Uruguay River basin, sited in Southern Brazil. Developed system was operated every day to provide experimental forecasts with special interest for Barra Grande and Campos Novos hydroelectric power plants reservoirs inflow, with 10 days in advance. We present results of inflow forecasted for floods occurred between July 2013 to July 2016, the period which the system was operated. Forecasts results by visual and performance metrics analysis showed a good fit with observations in most cases, with possibility of floods occurrence being well predicted with antecedence of 2 to 3 days. Comparing the locations, it was noted that the sub-basin of Campos Novos, being slower in rainfall-runoff transformation, is easier forecasted. The difference in predictability between the two basins can be observed by the coefficient of persistence, which is positive from 12h in Barra Grande and from 24h to Campos Novos. These coefficient values also show the value of the rainfall-runoff modeling for forecast horizons of more than one day in the basins.

Sobre o Uso da Persistência de Previsões Determinísticas de Vazão para a Tomada de Decisão

Medium-range streamflow forecasts, which are generated using rainfall-runoff models forced by numerical precipitation predictions, are very useful for the anticipation of hydrological events. Traditionally these predictions are deterministic, but in the last decade the movement for generating ensemble streamflow forecasts has been gaining strength. In the middle ground between these two techniques (deterministic and ensembles) the use of persistence information from deterministic streamflow forecasts for decision making, using it as an uncertainty measurement, appears to be an interesting strategy. This research investigates precisely these possible benefits of using forecasts based on persistence as uncertainty information measurement. Results suggest that the use of forecasts based on persistence have advantages over single deterministic forecasts on the higher lead times.