Dipika Sur

Burden and aetiology of diarrhoeal disease in infants and young children in developing countries (the Global Enteric Multicenter Study, GEMS): a prospective, case-control study

BACKGROUND Diarrhoeal diseases cause illness and death among children younger than 5 years in low-income countries. We designed the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) to identify the aetiology and population-based burden of paediatric diarrhoeal disease in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. METHODS The GEMS is a 3-year, prospective, age-stratified, matched case-control study of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea in children aged 0-59 months residing in censused populations at four sites in Africa and three in Asia. We recruited children with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea seeking care at health centres along with one to three randomly selected matched community control children without diarrhoea. From patients with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea and controls, we obtained clinical and epidemiological data, anthropometric measurements, and a faecal sample to identify enteropathogens at enrolment; one follow-up home visit was made about 60 days later to ascertain vital status, clinical outcome, and interval growth. FINDINGS We enrolled 9439 children with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea and 13,129 control children without diarrhoea. By analysing adjusted population attributable fractions, most attributable cases of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea were due to four pathogens: rotavirus, Cryptosporidium, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli producing heat-stable toxin (ST-ETEC; with or without co-expression of heat-labile enterotoxin), and Shigella. Other pathogens were important in selected sites (eg, Aeromonas, Vibrio cholerae O1, Campylobacter jejuni). Odds of dying during follow-up were 8·5-fold higher in patients with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea than in controls (odd ratio 8·5, 95% CI 5·8-12·5, p<0·0001); most deaths (167 [87·9%]) occurred during the first 2 years of life. Pathogens associated with increased risk of case death were ST-ETEC (hazard ratio [HR] 1·9; 0·99-3·5) and typical enteropathogenic E coli (HR 2·6; 1·6-4·1) in infants aged 0-11 months, and Cryptosporidium (HR 2·3; 1·3-4·3) in toddlers aged 12-23 months. INTERPRETATION Interventions targeting five pathogens (rotavirus, Shigella, ST-ETEC, Cryptosporidium, typical enteropathogenic E coli) can substantially reduce the burden of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea. New methods and accelerated implementation of existing interventions (rotavirus vaccine and zinc) are needed to prevent disease and improve outcomes. FUNDING The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Efficacy and safety of a modified killed-whole-cell oral cholera vaccine in India: an interim analysis of a cluster-randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND Oral cholera vaccines consisting of killed whole cells have been available for many years, but they have not been used extensively in populations with endemic disease. An inexpensive, locally produced oral killed-whole-cell vaccine has been used in high-risk areas in Vietnam. To expand the use of this vaccine, it was modified to comply with WHO standards. We assessed the efficacy and safety of this modified vaccine in a population with endemic cholera. METHODS In this double-blind trial, 107 774 non-pregnant residents of Kolkata, India, aged 1 year or older, were cluster-randomised by dwelling to receive two doses of either modified killed-whole-cell cholera vaccine (n=52 212; 1966 clusters) or heat-killed Escherichia coli K12 placebo (n=55 562; 1967 clusters), both delivered orally. Randomisation was done by computer-generated sequence in blocks of four. The primary endpoint was prevention of episodes of culture-confirmed Vibrio cholerae O1 diarrhoea severe enough for the patient to seek treatment in a health-care facility. We undertook an interim, per-protocol analysis at 2 years of follow-up that included individuals who received two completely ingested doses of vaccine or placebo. We assessed first episodes of cholera that occurred between 14 days and 730 days after receipt of the second dose. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00289224. FINDINGS 31 932 participants assigned to vaccine (1721 clusters) and 34 968 assigned to placebo (1757 clusters) received two doses of study treatment. There were 20 episodes of cholera in the vaccine group and 68 episodes in the placebo group (protective efficacy 67%; one-tailed 99% CI, lower bound 35%, p<0.0001). The vaccine protected individuals in age-groups 1.0-4.9 years, 5.0-14.9 years, and 15 years and older, and protective efficacy did not differ significantly between age-groups (p=0.28). We recorded no vaccine-related serious adverse events. INTERPRETATION This modified killed-whole-cell oral vaccine, compliant with WHO standards, is safe, provides protection against clinically significant cholera in an endemic setting, and can be used in children aged 1.0-4.9 years, who are at highest risk of developing cholera in endemic settings. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, Governments of South Korea, Sweden, and Kuwait.

The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) of Diarrheal Disease in Infants and Young Children in Developing Countries: Epidemiologic and Clinical Methods of the Case/Control Study

Background. Diarrhea is a leading cause of illness and death among children aged <5 years in developing countries. This paper describes the clinical and epidemiological methods used to conduct the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS), a 3-year, prospective, age-stratified, case/control study to estimate the population-based burden, microbiologic etiology, and adverse clinical consequences of acute moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) among a censused population of children aged 0–59 months seeking care at health centers in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Methods. GEMS was conducted at 7 field sites, each serving a population whose demography and healthcare utilization practices for childhood diarrhea were documented. We aimed to enroll 220 MSD cases per year from selected health centers serving each site in each of 3 age strata (0–11, 12–23, and 24–59 months), along with 1–3 matched community controls. Cases and controls supplied clinical, epidemiologic, and anthropometric data at enrollment and again approximately 60 days later, and provided enrollment stool specimens for identification and characterization of potential diarrheal pathogens. Verbal autopsy was performed if a child died. Analytic strategies will calculate the fraction of MSD attributable to each pathogen and the incidence, financial costs, nutritional consequences, and case fatality overall and by pathogen. Conclusions. When completed, GEMS will provide estimates of the incidence, etiology, and outcomes of MSD among infants and young children in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. This information can guide development and implementation of public health interventions to diminish morbidity and mortality from diarrheal diseases.

A cluster-randomized effectiveness trial of Vi typhoid vaccine in India.

BACKGROUND Typhoid fever remains an important cause of illness and death in the developing world. Uncertainties about the protective effect of Vi polysaccharide vaccine in children under the age of 5 years and about the vaccines effect under programmatic conditions have inhibited its use in developing countries. METHODS We conducted a phase 4 effectiveness trial in which slum-dwelling residents of Kolkata, India, who were 2 years of age or older were randomly assigned to receive a single dose of either Vi vaccine or inactivated hepatitis A vaccine, according to geographic clusters, with 40 clusters in each study group. The subjects were then followed for 2 years. RESULTS A total of 37,673 subjects received a dose of a study vaccine. The mean rate of vaccine coverage was 61% for the Vi vaccine clusters and 60% for the hepatitis A vaccine clusters. Typhoid fever was diagnosed in 96 subjects in the hepatitis A vaccine group, as compared with 34 in the Vi vaccine group, with no subject having more than one episode. The level of protective effectiveness for the Vi vaccine was 61% (95% confidence interval [CI], 41 to 75; P<0.001 for the comparison with the hepatitis A vaccine group). Children who were vaccinated between the ages of 2 and 5 years had a level of protection of 80% (95% CI, 53 to 91). Among unvaccinated members of the Vi vaccine clusters, the level of protection was 44% (95% CI, 2 to 69). The overall level of protection among all residents of Vi vaccine clusters was 57% (95% CI, 37 to 71). No serious adverse events that were attributed to either vaccine were observed during the month after vaccination. CONCLUSIONS The Vi vaccine was effective in young children and protected unvaccinated neighbors of Vi vaccinees. The potential for combined direct and indirect protection by Vi vaccine should be considered in future deliberations about introducing this vaccine in areas where typhoid fever is endemic. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00125008.)

Use of quantitative molecular diagnostic methods to identify causes of diarrhoea in children: a reanalysis of the GEMS case-control study

BACKGROUND Diarrhoea is the second leading cause of mortality in children worldwide, but establishing the cause can be complicated by diverse diagnostic approaches and varying test characteristics. We used quantitative molecular diagnostic methods to reassess causes of diarrhoea in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS). METHODS GEMS was a study of moderate to severe diarrhoea in children younger than 5 years in Africa and Asia. We used quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) to test for 32 enteropathogens in stool samples from cases and matched asymptomatic controls from GEMS, and compared pathogen-specific attributable incidences with those found with the original GEMS microbiological methods, including culture, EIA, and reverse-transcriptase PCR. We calculated revised pathogen-specific burdens of disease and assessed causes in individual children. FINDINGS We analysed 5304 sample pairs. For most pathogens, incidence was greater with qPCR than with the original methods, particularly for adenovirus 40/41 (around five times), Shigella spp or enteroinvasive Escherichia coli (EIEC) and Campylobactor jejuni o C coli (around two times), and heat-stable enterotoxin-producing E coli ([ST-ETEC] around 1·5 times). The six most attributable pathogens became, in descending order, Shigella spp, rotavirus, adenovirus 40/41, ST-ETEC, Cryptosporidium spp, and Campylobacter spp. Pathogen-attributable diarrhoeal burden was 89·3% (95% CI 83·2-96·0) at the population level, compared with 51·5% (48·0-55·0) in the original GEMS analysis. The top six pathogens accounted for 77·8% (74·6-80·9) of all attributable diarrhoea. With use of model-derived quantitative cutoffs to assess individual diarrhoeal cases, 2254 (42·5%) of 5304 cases had one diarrhoea-associated pathogen detected and 2063 (38·9%) had two or more, with Shigella spp and rotavirus being the pathogens most strongly associated with diarrhoea in children with mixed infections. INTERPRETATION A quantitative molecular diagnostic approach improved population-level and case-level characterisation of the causes of diarrhoea and indicated a high burden of disease associated with six pathogens, for which targeted treatment should be prioritised. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The High Burden of Cholera in Children: Comparison of Incidence from Endemic Areas in Asia and Africa

Background Cholera remains an important public health problem. Yet there are few reliable population-based estimates of laboratory-confirmed cholera incidence in endemic areas around the world. Methods We established treatment facility–based cholera surveillance in three sites in Jakarta (Indonesia), Kolkata (India), and Beira (Mozambique). The annual incidence of cholera was estimated using the population census as the denominator and the age-specific number of cholera cases among the study cohort as the numerator. Findings The lowest overall rate was found in Jakarta, where the estimated incidence was 0.5/1000 population/year. The incidence was three times higher in Kolkata (1.6/1000/year) and eight times higher in Beira (4.0/1000/year). In all study sites, the greatest burden was in children under 5 years of age. Conclusion There are considerable differences in cholera incidence across these endemic areas but in all sites, children are the most affected. The study site in Africa had the highest cholera incidence consistent with a growing impression of the large cholera burden in Africa. Burden estimates are useful when considering where and among whom interventions such as vaccination would be most needed.

5 year efficacy of a bivalent killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccine in Kolkata, India: a cluster-randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND Efficacy and safety of a two-dose regimen of bivalent killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccine (Shantha Biotechnics, Hyderabad, India) to 3 years is established, but long-term efficacy is not. We aimed to assess protective efficacy up to 5 years in a slum area of Kolkata, India. METHODS In our double-blind, cluster-randomised, placebo-controlled trial, we assessed incidence of cholera in non-pregnant individuals older than 1 year residing in 3933 dwellings (clusters) in Kolkata, India. We randomly allocated participants, by dwelling, to receive two oral doses of modified killed bivalent whole-cell cholera vaccine or heat-killed Escherichia coli K12 placebo, 14 days apart. Randomisation was done by use of a computer-generated sequence in blocks of four. The primary endpoint was prevention of episodes of culture-confirmed Vibrio cholerae O1 diarrhoea severe enough for patients to seek treatment in a health-care facility. We identified culture-confirmed cholera cases among participants seeking treatment for diarrhoea at a study clinic or government hospital between 14 days and 1825 days after receipt of the second dose. We assessed vaccine protection in a per-protocol population of participants who had completely ingested two doses of assigned study treatment. FINDINGS 69 of 31 932 recipients of vaccine and 219 of 34 968 recipients of placebo developed cholera during 5 year follow-up (incidence 2·2 per 1000 in the vaccine group and 6·3 per 1000 in the placebo group). Cumulative protective efficacy of the vaccine at 5 years was 65% (95% CI 52-74; p<0·0001), and point estimates by year of follow-up suggested no evidence of decline in protective efficacy. INTERPRETATION Sustained protection for 5 years at the level we reported has not been noted previously with other oral cholera vaccines. Established long-term efficacy of this vaccine could assist policy makers formulate rational vaccination strategies to reduce overall cholera burden in endemic settings. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the governments of South Korea and Sweden.

Shigella Isolates From the Global Enteric Multicenter Study Inform Vaccine Development

Shigella case isolates from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study were serotyped to guide vaccine development. A quadrivalent vaccine that includes O antigens from S. sonnei, S. flexneri 2a, S. flexneri 3a, and S. flexneri 6 should provide broad protection.

Efficacy of a Low-Cost, Inactivated Whole-Cell Oral Cholera Vaccine: Results from 3 Years of Follow-Up of a Randomized, Controlled Trial

Background Killed oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) have been licensed for use in developing countries, but protection conferred by licensed OCVs beyond two years of follow-up has not been demonstrated in randomized, clinical trials. Methods/Principal Findings We conducted a cluster-randomized, placebo-controlled trial of a two-dose regimen of a low-cost killed whole cell OCV in residents 1 year of age and older living in 3,933 clusters in Kolkata, India. The primary endpoint was culture-proven Vibrio cholerae O1 diarrhea episodes severe enough to require treatment in a health care facility. Of the 66,900 fully dosed individuals (31,932 vaccinees and 34,968 placebo recipients), 38 vaccinees and 128 placebo-recipients developed cholera during three years of follow-up (protective efficacy 66%; one-sided 95%CI lower bound = 53%, p<0.001). Vaccine protection during the third year of follow-up was 65% (one-sided 95%CI lower bound = 44%, p<0.001). Significant protection was evident in the second year of follow-up in children vaccinated at ages 1–4 years and in the third year in older age groups. Conclusions/Significance The killed whole-cell OCV conferred significant protection that was evident in the second year of follow-up in young children and was sustained for at least three years in older age groups. Continued follow-up will be important to establish the vaccines duration of protection. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00289224.

A randomized, placebo-controlled trial of the bivalent killed, whole-cell, oral cholera vaccine in adults and children in a cholera endemic area in Kolkata, India.

Objectives An effective vaccine against cholera has been used for public health purposes in Vietnam since the 1990s. This vaccine was reformulated to meet WHO requirements. We assessed the safety and immunogenicity of the reformulated bivalent (Vibrio cholerae 01 and 0139) killed whole cell oral vaccine in a cholera endemic area in Kolkata, India. Design Double-blind, randomized, placebo controlled trial Setting The trial was conducted in the clinical trial ward of the Infectious Diseases Hospital in Kolkata, India Participants The participants were 101 healthy adults (males and non-pregnant females) aged 18–40 years and 100 healthy children (males and non-pregnant females) aged 1–17 years. Interventions Participants were randomized to receive either the bivalent killed whole cell oral cholera vaccine or placebo (killed oral Escherichia coli K12) Outcome Measures For safety: proportion of subjects with adverse events during the duration of study participation. For immunogenicity: Proportion of subjects who had a ≥4-fold rise in serum vibriocidal antibody titers 14 days after the second dose of vaccine or placebo. Results Adverse reactions were observed with similar frequency among vaccine and placebo recipients in both age groups. Among adults 4% of vaccine and 8% of placebo recipients and among children 4% of vaccine and 2% of placebo recipients had at least one adverse event within 28 days of the first dose of the vaccine. Following immunization, 53% of adult and 80% of children vaccinees showed a ≥4 fold rise in serum V. cholerae O1 vibriocidal antibody titers. A less pronounced response to V. cholerae O139 vibriocidal antibody titers post-immunization was noted among vaccinees. Conclusions We found the vaccine to be safe and immunogenic in a cholera-endemic area in India. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00119197