Dirk Keidel

Development of Land Use Regression Models for PM2.5, PM2.5 Absorbance, PM10 and PMcoarse in 20 European Study Areas; Results of the ESCAPE Project

Land Use Regression (LUR) models have been used increasingly for modeling small-scale spatial variation in air pollution concentrations and estimating individual exposure for participants of cohort studies. Within the ESCAPE project, concentrations of PM(2.5), PM(2.5) absorbance, PM(10), and PM(coarse) were measured in 20 European study areas at 20 sites per area. GIS-derived predictor variables (e.g., traffic intensity, population, and land-use) were evaluated to model spatial variation of annual average concentrations for each study area. The median model explained variance (R(2)) was 71% for PM(2.5) (range across study areas 35-94%). Model R(2) was higher for PM(2.5) absorbance (median 89%, range 56-97%) and lower for PM(coarse) (median 68%, range 32- 81%). Models included between two and five predictor variables, with various traffic indicators as the most common predictors. Lower R(2) was related to small concentration variability or limited availability of predictor variables, especially traffic intensity. Cross validation R(2) results were on average 8-11% lower than model R(2). Careful selection of monitoring sites, examination of influential observations and skewed variable distributions were essential for developing stable LUR models. The final LUR models are used to estimate air pollution concentrations at the home addresses of participants in the health studies involved in ESCAPE.

Traffic-Related Air Pollution Correlates with Adult-Onset Asthma among Never-Smokers

Background: Traffic-related pollution is associated with the onset of asthma in children. Its effect on adult-onset asthma is poorly investigated. The SAPALDIA cohort study was used to investigate associations between the 11-year change (1991–2002) in home outdoor traffic-related particulate matter up to 10 μm in diameter (TPM10) and the incidence of asthma. Methods: Never-smokers without asthma at baseline aged 18–60 years in 1991 were eligible for inclusion in the study. Subjects reporting doctor-diagnosed asthma at follow-up were considered incident cases. TPM10 at baseline and follow-up was predicted and interpolated to subjects’ place of residence by dispersion models using emission and meteorological data. Cox proportional hazard models for time to asthma onset were adjusted (age, gender, baseline atopy, body mass index, bronchial reactivity, maternal allergies). Results: Of 2725 never-smokers, 41 reported asthma onset in 2002. Home outdoor TPM10 concentrations improved during the interval (mean −0.6; range −9 to +7.2; IQR 0.6 μg/m3). The incidence of asthma was associated with a change in TPM10. The hazard ratio (1.30; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.61) per 1 μg/m3 change in TPM10 (IQR) was not sensitive to further adjustments (education, workplace exposure, passive smoking, parental asthma or allergies, random area effects, lung function or co-pollutants such as regional, secondary, total PM10 or proximity to busy roads). Conclusion: The data suggest a role for traffic-related pollution in adult-onset asthma. Space, time and source-specific individual assignment of exposure to traffic-related pollution is a key strength of SAPALDIA. It may explain why findings were statistically significant despite the limited number of new cases. As traffic-related pollution prevails, the finding may be of substantial public health relevance.

Adult lung function and long-term air pollution exposure. ESCAPE: a multicentre cohort study and meta-analysis

The chronic impact of ambient air pollutants on lung function in adults is not fully understood. The objective of this study was to investigate the association of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution with lung function in adult participants from five cohorts in the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE). Residential exposure to nitrogen oxides (NO2, NOx) and particulate matter (PM) was modelled and traffic indicators were assessed in a standardised manner. The spirometric parameters forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) from 7613 subjects were considered as outcomes. Cohort-specific results were combined using meta-analysis. We did not observe an association of air pollution with longitudinal change in lung function, but we observed that a 10 μg·m−3 increase in NO2 exposure was associated with lower levels of FEV1 (−14.0 mL, 95% CI −25.8 to −2.1) and FVC (−14.9 mL, 95% CI −28.7 to −1.1). An increase of 10 μg·m−3 in PM10, but not other PM metrics (PM2.5, coarse fraction of PM, PM absorbance), was associated with a lower level of FEV1 (−44.6 mL, 95% CI −85.4 to −3.8) and FVC (−59.0 mL, 95% CI −112.3 to −5.6). The associations were particularly strong in obese persons. This study adds to the evidence for an adverse association of ambient air pollution with lung function in adults at very low levels in Europe. The ESCAPE study finds that, even at very low levels, air pollution has adverse effects on lung function in adults http://ow.ly/A1ssB

Occupational Exposure to Dusts, Gases, and Fumes and Incidence of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in the Swiss Cohort Study on Air Pollution and Lung and Heart Diseases in Adults

RATIONALE There is limited evidence from population-based studies demonstrating incidence of spirometric-defined chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in association with occupational exposures. OBJECTIVES We evaluated the association between occupational exposures and incidence of COPD in the Swiss Cohort Study on Air Pollution and Lung and Heart Diseases in Adults (SAPALDIA). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS Prebronchodilator ratio of forced expiratory volume in 1 second over forced vital capacity (FEV(1)/FVC) was measured in 4,267 nonasthmatic SAPALDIA participants ages 18-62 at baseline in 1991 and at follow-up in 2001-2003. COPD was defined by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) criterion (FEV(1)/FVC < 0.70) and Quanjer reference equation (FEV(1)/FVC < lower limit of normal [LLN]), and categorized by severity (≥ 80% and <80% predicted FEV(1) for stage I and stage II+, respectively). Using a job-exposure matrix, self-reported occupations at baseline were assigned exposures to biological dusts, mineral dusts, gases/fumes, and vapors, gases, dusts, or fumes (VGDF) (high, low, or unexposed as reference). Adjusted incident rate ratios (IRRs) of stage I and stage II+ COPD were estimated in mixed Poisson regression models. Statistically significant (P < 0.05) IRRs of stage II+ GOLD and LLN-COPD, indicating risks between two- and fivefold, were observed for all occupational exposures at high levels. Occupational exposure-associated risk of stage II+ COPD was observed mainly in males and ages ≥ 40 years, and remained elevated when restricted to nonsmokers. CONCLUSIONS In a Swiss working adult population, occupational exposures to biological dusts, mineral dusts, gases/fumes, and VGDF were associated with incidence of COPD of at least moderate severity.

Transportation noise and blood pressure in a population-based sample of adults

Background: There is some evidence for an association between traffic noise and ischemic heart disease; however, associations with blood pressure have been inconsistent, and little is known about health effects of railway noise. Objectives: We aimed to investigate the effects of railway and traffic noise exposure on blood pressure; a secondary aim was to address potentially susceptible subpopulations. Methods: We performed adjusted linear regression analyses using data from 6,450 participants of the second survey of the Swiss Study on Air Pollution and Lung Disease in Adults (SAPALDIA 2) to estimate the associations of daytime and nighttime railway and traffic noise (A-weighted decibels) with systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP; millimeters of mercury). Noise data were provided by the Federal Office for the Environment. Stratified analyses by self-reported hypertension, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and diabetes were performed. Results: Mean noise exposure during the day and night was 51 dB(A) and 39 dB(A) for traffic noise, respectively, and 19 dB(A) and 17 dB(A) for railway noise. Adjusted regression models yielded significant effect estimates for a 10 dB(A) increase in railway noise during the night [SBP β = 0.84; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.22, 1.46; DBP β = 0.44; 95% CI: 0.06, 0.81] and day (SBP β = 0.60; 95% CI: 0.07, 1.13). Additional adjustment for nitrogen dioxide left effect estimates almost unchanged. Stronger associations were estimated for participants with chronic disease. Significant associations with traffic noise were seen only among participants with diabetes. Conclusion: We found evidence of an adverse effect of railway noise on blood pressure in this cohort population. Traffic noise was associated with higher blood pressure only in diabetics, possibly due to low exposure levels. The study results imply more severe health effects by transportation noise in vulnerable populations, such as adults with hypertension, diabetes, or CVD.

Ambient air pollution and adult asthma incidence in six European cohorts (ESCAPE)

BACKGROUND Short-term exposure to air pollution has adverse effects among patients with asthma, but whether long-term exposure to air pollution is a cause of adult-onset asthma is unclear. OBJECTIVE We aimed to investigate the association between air pollution and adult onset asthma. METHODS Asthma incidence was prospectively assessed in six European cohorts. Exposures studied were annual average concentrations at home addresses for nitrogen oxides assessed for 23,704 participants (including 1,257 incident cases) and particulate matter (PM) assessed for 17,909 participants through ESCAPE land-use regression models and traffic exposure indicators. Meta-analyses of cohort-specific logistic regression on asthma incidence were performed. Models were adjusted for age, sex, overweight, education, and smoking and included city/area within each cohort as a random effect. RESULTS In this longitudinal analysis, asthma incidence was positively, but not significantly, associated with all exposure metrics, except for PMcoarse. Positive associations of borderline significance were observed for nitrogen dioxide [adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.10; 95% CI: 0.99, 1.21 per 10 μg/m3; p = 0.10] and nitrogen oxides (adjusted OR = 1.04; 95% CI: 0.99, 1.08 per 20 μg/m3; p = 0.08). Nonsignificant positive associations were estimated for PM10 (adjusted OR = 1.04; 95% CI: 0.88, 1.23 per 10 μg/m3), PM2.5 (adjusted OR = 1.04; 95% CI: 0.88, 1.23 per 5 μg/m3), PM2.5absorbance (adjusted OR = 1.06; 95% CI: 0.95, 1.19 per 10-5/m), traffic load (adjusted OR = 1.10; 95% CI: 0.93, 1.30 per 4 million vehicles × meters/day on major roads in a 100-m buffer), and traffic intensity (adjusted OR = 1.10; 95% CI: 0.93, 1.30 per 5,000 vehicles/day on the nearest road). A nonsignificant negative association was estimated for PMcoarse (adjusted OR = 0.98; 95% CI: 0.87, 1.14 per 5 μg/m3). CONCLUSIONS Results suggest a deleterious effect of ambient air pollution on asthma incidence in adults. Further research with improved personal-level exposure assessment (vs. residential exposure assessment only) and phenotypic characterization is needed.

Improvements in PM10 Exposure and Reduced Rates of Respiratory Symptoms in a Cohort of Swiss Adults (SAPALDIA)

RATIONALE Reductions in mortality following improvements in air quality were documented by several studies, and our group found, in an earlier analysis, that decreasing particulate levels attenuate lung function decline in adults. OBJECTIVES We investigated whether decreases in particulates with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 10 microm (PM10) were associated with lower rates of reporting respiratory symptoms (i.e., decreased morbidity) on follow-up. METHODS The present analysis includes 7,019 subjects who underwent detailed baseline examinations in 1991 and a follow-up interview in 2002. Each subject was assigned model-based estimates of average PM10 during the 12 months preceding each health assessment and the difference was used as the exposure variable of interest (DeltaPM10). Analyses were stratified by symptom status at baseline and associations between DeltaPM10 and change in symptom status during follow-up were adjusted for important baseline characteristics, smoking status at follow-up, and season. We then estimated adjusted odds ratios for symptoms at follow-up and numbers of symptomatic cases prevented due to the observed reductions in PM10. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS Residential exposure to PM10 was lower in 2002 than in 1991 (mean decline 6.2 microg/m3; SD = 3.9 microg/m3). Estimated benefits (per 10,000 persons) attributable to the observed changes in PM10-levels were: 259 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 102-416) fewer subjects with regular cough, 179 (95% CI, 30-328) fewer subjects with chronic cough or phlegm and 137 (95% CI, 9-266) fewer subjects with wheezing and breathlessness. CONCLUSIONS Reductions in particle levels in Switzerland over the 11-year follow-up period had a beneficial effect on respiratory symptoms among adults.

Association of ambient air pollution with the prevalence and incidence of COPD

The role of air pollution in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains uncertain. The aim was to assess the impact of chronic exposure to air pollution on COPD in four cohorts using the standardised ESCAPE exposure estimates. Annual average particulate matter (PM), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and road traffic exposure were assigned to home addresses using land-use regression models. COPD was defined by NHANES reference equation (forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1)/forced vital capacity (FVC) less than the lower limit of normal) and the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease criterion (FEV1/FVC <0.70) and categorised by severity in non-asthmatics. We included 6550 subjects with assigned NOx and 3692 with PM measures. COPD was not associated with NO2 or PM10 in any individual cohort. In meta-analyses only NO2, NOx, PM10 and the traffic indicators were positively, although not significantly, associated with COPD. The only statistically significant associations were seen in females (COPD prevalence using GOLD: OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.11–2.23; and incidence: OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.21–2.68). None of the principal results were statistically significant, the weak positive associations of exposure with COPD and the significant subgroup findings need to be evaluated in further well standardised cohorts followed up for longer time, and with time-matched exposure assignments. Results from the ESCAPE study: what is the association of COPD prevalence and incidence with ambient air pollution? http://ow.ly/rQcFM

Characterization of Source-Specific Air Pollution Exposure for a Large Population-Based Swiss Cohort (SAPALDIA)

Background Although the dispersion model approach has been used in some epidemiologic studies to examine health effects of traffic-specific air pollution, no study has evaluated the model predictions vigorously. Methods We evaluated total and traffic-specific particulate matter < 10 and < 2.5 μm in aero-dynamic diameter (PM10, PM2.5), nitrogren dioxide, and nitrogen oxide concentrations predicted by Gaussian dispersion models against fixed-site measurements at different locations, including traffic-impacted, urban-background, and alpine settings between and across cities. The model predictions were then used to estimate individual subjects’ historical and cumulative exposures with a temporal trend model. Results Modeled PM10 and NO2 predicted at least 55% and 72% of the variability of the measured PM10 and NO2, respectively. Traffic-specific pollution estimates correlated with the NOx measurements (R2 ≥0.77) for background sites but not for traffic sites. Regional background PM10 accounted for most PM10 mass in all cities. Whereas traffic PM10 accounted for < 20% of the total PM10, it varied significantly within cities. The modeling error for PM10 was similar within and between cities. Traffic NOx accounted for the majority of NOx mass in urban areas, whereas background NOx accounted for the majority of NOx in rural areas. The within-city NO2 modeling error was larger than that between cities. Conclusions The dispersion model predicted well the total PM10, NOx, and NO2 and traffic-specific pollution at background sites. However, the model underpredicted traffic NOx and NO2 at traffic sites and needs refinement to reflect local conditions. The dispersion model predictions for PM10 are suitable for examining individual exposures and health effects within and between cities.

Relation between circulating CC16 concentrations, lung function, and development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease across the lifespan: a prospective study

BACKGROUND Low concentrations of the anti-inflammatory protein CC16 (approved symbol SCGB1A1) in serum have been associated with accelerated decline in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We investigated whether low circulating CC16 concentrations precede lung function deficits and incidence of COPD in the general population. METHODS We assessed longitudinal data on CC16 concentrations in serum and associations with decline in FEV1 and incidence of airflow limitation for adults who were free from COPD at baseline in the population-based Tucson Epidemiological Study of Airway Obstructive Disease ([TESAOD] n=960, mean follow-up 14 years), European Community Respiratory Health Survey ([ECRHS-Sp] n=514, 11 years), and Swiss Cohort Study on Air Pollution and Lung Diseases in Adults ([SAPALDIA] n=167, 8 years) studies. Additionally, we measured circulating CC16 concentrations in samples from children aged 4-6 years in the Tucson Childrens Respiratory Study (n=427), UK Manchester Asthma and Allergy Study (n=481), and the Swedish Barn/children, Allergy, Milieu, Stockholm, Epidemiological survey (n=231) birth cohorts to assess whether low CC16 concentrations in childhood were predictive for subsequent lung function. FINDINGS After adjustment for sex, age, height, smoking status and intensity, pack-years, asthma, and FEV1 at baseline, we found an inverse association between CC16 concentration and decline in FEV1 in adults in TESAOD (4·4 mL/year additional FEV1 decline for each SD decrease in baseline CC16 concentration, p=0·0014) and ECRHS-Sp (2·4 mL/year, p=0·023); the effect in SAPALDIA was marginal (4·5 mL/year, p=0·052). Low CC16 concentration at baseline was also associated with increased risk of incident stage 2 airflow limitation (ratio of FEV1 to forced expiratory volume [FEV1/FVC] less than 70% plus FEV1 % predicted less than 80%) in TESAOD and ECRHS-Sp. In children, the lowest tertile of CC16 concentrations was associated with a subsequent FEV1 deficit of 68 mL up to age 16 years (p=0·0001), which was confirmed in children who had never smoked by age 16 years (-71 mL, p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION Low concentrations of CC16 in serum are associated with reduced lung function in childhood, accelerated lung function decline in adulthood, and development of moderate airflow limitation in the general adult population. FUNDING National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and European Union Seventh Framework Programme.