Dirk T. G. Rübbelke

Impacts of Climate Change on European Critical Infrastructures: The Case of the Power Sector

Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases cause climate change and this change in turn induces various direct impacts, e.g., changes in regional weather patterns. The frequency of heat waves and droughts in Europe is likely to rise. Yet, beyond these immediate effects of climate change, there are more indirect effects: Droughts may cause water scarcity and a lack of water supply which in turn would affect further sectors and critical infrastructures. A rising lack of water supply for cooling purposes, for example, will negatively affect electricity generation in power plants. In this paper we analyse such interplays between climate-change affected sectors. We investigate whether and to which extent power generation and supply in Europe is threatened by climate change because of the higher risk of water supply shortages due to more frequent drought and heat-wave incidences. Our proposed approach cannot only be applied to analyse the climate change effects on individual power plant sites or the overall economy but also on electricity exchanges between countries.

Ancillary Benefits of Climate Policy

The benefits of climate policy normally consist exclusively of the reduced impacts of climate change, i.e., the policy’s primary aim. Our analysis of benefits of climate policy suggests, however, that researchers and policymakers should also take account of ancillary benefits, e.g., in the shape of improved air quality induced by climate protection measures. A consideration of both, primary and ancillary benefits, has a positive influence on global climate protection efforts, e.g., because the regional impact of ancillary effects attenuates easy-riding motives of countries with respect to their provision of climate protection. In this article, we analyze the nature of ancillary benefits, present an overview of European assessment studies and explain possible methods to estimate ancillary benefits. Main differences between primary and ancillary benefits are pointed out. Furthermore, we stress the major influences of ancillary benefits on climate policy. Finally, we present one of the first models integrating primary and ancillary benefits. By this model quantitative results are calculated with respect to ancillary benefits in the UK considering different green-house gas (GHG) control levels. It is observed that the ancillary benefits could cover about 4 percent of the full GHG reduction cost.

Objectives of public economic policy and the adaptation to climate change

Much can be learned about adaptation by applying structures and methodologies already used in other research fields. This study employs a public economic policy approach to investigate how – or if at all – adaptation should be supported by the public sector. Three different fields of adaptation activity are identified which are especially relevant for government intervention and the study proposes ways in which government intervention could be conducted. The analysis takes into account that developing regions are particularly vulnerable and they have insufficient funds to adequately adapt to climate change.

An analysis of differing abatement incentives

Abstract In general, climate policies are evaluated with respect to their costs and benefits. But regularly an important category of benefits is omitted: ancillary or secondary benefits. In contrast to the main strand of literature on climate change the study presented here will analyze countries’ decisions on greenhouse gas abatement in an impure public good model which considers ancillary benefits. As can be shown by integrating ancillary benefits into the analysis, environmental regulations independent of the climate problem may well have an effect on countries’ greenhouse gas control. Consequently, different environmental programs should be coordinated carefully and should not be considered as being independent.

Short-term distributional consequences of climate change impacts on the power sector: who gains and who loses?

Climate change tends to negatively affect the power sector, inter alia, by causing cooling problems in power plants and impairing the water supply required for hydropower generation. In the future, when global warming is expected to increase, autonomous adaptation to climate change via international electricity markets inducing reallocations of power generation may not be sufficient to prevent supply disruptions anymore. Furthermore, the consequent changes of supply patterns and electricity prices might cause an undesirable redistribution of wealth both between individual power suppliers and between suppliers and consumers. This study ascertains changes in European power supply patterns and electricity prices caused by on-going global warming as well as the associated redistribution of wealth for different climate change scenarios. The focus of the analysis is on short-term effects. Our results confirm that autonomous adaptation in the power sector should be complemented by planned public adaptation in order to preserve energy security and to prevent undesired distributional effects.

International Climate Finance and its Influence on Fairness and Policy

Besides costs and benefits, fairness aspects tend to influence negotiating partiesAƒÂ¢A‚€A‚â„¢ willingness to join an international agreement on climate change mitigation. Fairness is largely considered to improve the prospects of success of international negotiations and hence measures raising fairness perception might AƒÂ¢A‚€A‚“ in turn AƒÂ¢A‚€A‚“ help to bring about effective cooperative international climate change mitigation. We consider the influences present international support of climate policy in developing countries exerts on fairness perception and how this again might affect international negotiations. In doing so, we distinguish between fairness perception which is based on historical experiences and perception which is based on conjectures about opponentsAƒÂ¢A‚€A‚â„¢ intentions. By identifying beneficial components of current support schemes, lessons can be learnt for designing new schemes like the Green Climate Fund.

Evaluation of two alternative carbon capture and storage technologies: A stochastic model

* Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is one of the technologies for fighting climate change in the future. The use of CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) paired with storage in deep saline formations (DSF) could effectively help to support CCS demonstration projects, reduce costs and thus guarantee the future economic viability of power plants incorporating both EOR and CCS. * CCS without EOR is highly unprofitable at both current and expected carbon market prices. * The profitability of these technologies is highly influenced by the volatility of future electricity prices, oil prices and carbon allowance prices. * Investment in EOR and secondary DSF storage can only be profitable with a long-term equilibrium price for oil higher than

Impure Public Goods and Technological Interdependencies

51/barrel. When the investment decision can be made at any time the trigger value for optimal investment is significantly higher at

Environmental Protection and the Private Provision of International Public Goods

89/barrel. However, an increase in the investment cost can substantially raise these trigger prices.

Potentially Harmful International Cooperation on Global Public Good Provision

Impure public goods represent an important group of goods. Almost every public good exerts not only effects which are public to all but also effects which are private to the producer of this good. What is often omitted in the analysis of impure public goods is the fact that - regularly - these private effects can also be generated independently of the public good. In our analysis we focus on the effects alternative technologies - independently generating the private effects of the public good - may have on the provision of impure public goods. After the investigation in an analytical impure public good model, we numerically simulate the effects of alternative technologies in a parameterized model for climate policy in Germany.