Dirk Verschuren

Rainfall and drought in equatorial east Africa during the past 1,100 years

Knowledge of natural long-term rainfall variability is essential for water-resource and land-use management in sub-humid regions of the world. In tropical Africa, data relevant to determining this variability are scarce because of the lack of long instrumental climate records and the limited potential of standard high-resolution proxy records such as tree rings and ice cores. Here we present a decade-scale reconstruction of rainfall and drought in equatorial east Africa over the past 1,100 years, based on lake-level and salinity fluctuations of Lake Naivasha (Kenya) inferred from three different palaeolimnological proxies: sediment stratigraphy and the species compositions of fossil diatom and midge assemblages. Our data indicate that, over the past millennium, equatorial east Africa has alternated between contrasting climate conditions, with significantly drier climate than today during the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ (∼ ad 1000–1270) and a relatively wet climate during the ‘Little Ice Age’ (∼ ad 1270–1850) which was interrupted by three prolonged dry episodes. We also find strong chronological links between the reconstructed history of natural long-term rainfall variation and the pre-colonial cultural history of east Africa, highlighting the importance of a detailed knowledge of natural long-term rainfall fluctuations for sustainable socio-economic development.

Climate-driven ecosystem succession in the Sahara: The past 6000 years

Desiccation of the Sahara since the middle Holocene has eradicated all but a few natural archives recording its transition from a “green Sahara” to the present hyperarid desert. Our continuous 6000-year paleoenvironmental reconstruction from northern Chad shows progressive drying of the regional terrestrial ecosystem in response to weakening insolation forcing of the African monsoon and abrupt hydrological change in the local aquatic ecosystem controlled by site-specific thresholds. Strong reductions in tropical trees and then Sahelian grassland cover allowed large-scale dust mobilization from 4300 calendar years before the present (cal yr B.P.). Todays desert ecosystem and regional wind regime were established around 2700 cal yr B.P. This gradual rather than abrupt termination of the African Humid Period in the eastern Sahara suggests a relatively weak biogeophysical feedback on climate.

Rapid, local adaptation of zooplankton behavior to changes in predation pressure in the absence of neutral genetic changes

Organisms producing resting stages provide unique opportunities for reconstructing the genetic history of natural populations. Diapausing seeds and eggs often are preserved in large numbers, representing entire populations captured in an evolutionary inert state for decades and even centuries. Starting from a natural resting egg bank of the waterflea Daphnia, we compare the evolutionary rates of change in an adaptive quantitative trait with those in selectively neutral DNA markers, thus effectively testing whether the observed genetic changes in the quantitative trait are driven by natural selection. The population studied experienced variable and well documented levels of fish predation over the past 30 years and shows correlated genetic changes in phototactic behavior, a predator-avoidance trait that is related to diel vertical migration. The changes mainly involve an increased plasticity response upon exposure to predator kairomone, the direction of the changes being in agreement with the hypothesis of adaptive evolution. Genetic differentiation through time was an order of magnitude higher for the studied behavioral trait than for neutral markers (DNA microsatellites), providing strong evidence that natural selection was the driving force behind the observed, rapid, evolutionary changes.

History and timing of human impact on Lake Victoria, East Africa

Lake Victoria, the largest tropical lake in the world, suffers from severe eutrophication and the probable extinction of up to half of its 500+ species of endemic cichlid fishes. The continuing degradation of Lake Victorias ecological functions has serious long–term consequences for the ecosystem services it provides, and may threaten social welfare in the countries bordering its shores. Evaluation of recent ecological changes in the context of aquatic food–web alterations, catchment disturbance and natural ecosystem variability has been hampered by the scarcity of historical monitoring data. Here, we present high–resolution palaeolimnological data, which show that increases in phytoplankton production developed from the 1930s onwards, which parallels human–population growth and agricultural activity in the Lake Victoria drainage basin. Dominance of bloom–forming cyanobacteria since the late 1980s coincided with a relative decline in diatom growth, which can be attributed to the seasonal depletion of dissolved silica resulting from 50 years of enhanced diatom growth and burial. Eutrophication–induced loss of deep–water oxygen started in the early 1960s, and may have contributed to the 1980s collapse of indigenous fish stocks by eliminating suitable habitat for certain deep–water cichlids. Conservation of Lake Victoria as a functioning ecosystem is contingent upon large–scale implementation of improved land–use practices.

Half-precessional dynamics of monsoon rainfall near the East African Equator

External climate forcings—such as long-term changes in solar insolation—generate different climate responses in tropical and high latitude regions. Documenting the spatial and temporal variability of past climates is therefore critical for understanding how such forcings are translated into regional climate variability. In contrast to the data-rich middle and high latitudes, high-quality climate-proxy records from equatorial regions are relatively few, especially from regions experiencing the bimodal seasonal rainfall distribution associated with twice-annual passage of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Here we present a continuous and well-resolved climate-proxy record of hydrological variability during the past 25,000 years from equatorial East Africa. Our results, based on complementary evidence from seismic-reflection stratigraphy and organic biomarker molecules in the sediment record of Lake Challa near Mount Kilimanjaro, reveal that monsoon rainfall in this region varied at half-precessional (∼11,500-year) intervals in phase with orbitally controlled insolation forcing. The southeasterly and northeasterly monsoons that advect moisture from the western Indian Ocean were strengthened in alternation when the inter-hemispheric insolation gradient was at a maximum; dry conditions prevailed when neither monsoon was intensified and modest local March or September insolation weakened the rain season that followed. On sub-millennial timescales, the temporal pattern of hydrological change on the East African Equator bears clear high-northern-latitude signatures, but on the orbital timescale it mainly responded to low-latitude insolation forcing. Predominance of low-latitude climate processes in this monsoon region can be attributed to the low-latitude position of its continental regions of surface air flow convergence, and its relative isolation from the Atlantic Ocean, where prominent meridional overturning circulation more tightly couples low-latitude climate regimes to high-latitude boundary conditions.

Reduced Interannual Rainfall Variability in East Africa During the Last Ice Age

Extreme rainfall was weaker and less frequent in East Africa during the last ice age. Interannual rainfall variations in equatorial East Africa are tightly linked to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with more rain and flooding during El Niño and droughts in La Niña years, both having severe impacts on human habitation and food security. Here we report evidence from an annually laminated lake sediment record from southeastern Kenya for interannual to centennial-scale changes in ENSO-related rainfall variability during the last three millennia and for reductions in both the mean rate and the variability of rainfall in East Africa during the Last Glacial period. Climate model simulations support forward extrapolation from these lake sediment data that future warming will intensify the interannual variability of East Africa’s rainfall.

EFFECTS OF DEPTH, SALINITY, AND SUBSTRATE ON THE INVERTEBRATE COMMUNITY OF A FLUCTUATING TROPICAL LAKE

Salinity is generally considered to be the dominant environmental factor regulating aquatic community structure in hydrologically closed lakes and wetlands, but it is not well known whether community response to long-term trends in hydrological balance is driven primarily by the direct physiological effect of salinity stress or by the habitat restructuring that accompanies changes in lake level and salinity. Attempts to separate the effects of various environmental factors on invertebrate populations in shallow fluctuating lakes through field study are hampered by the typically large temporal and spatial variation in species abundances and the long time scale of climate-driven habitat restructuring relative to the period of study. We used paleolimnological techniques to document long-term dynamics of the benthic invertebrate community inhabiting a shallow fluctuating lake in Kenya where during the period ∼1870–1991 lake depth fluctuated between 4 and 19 m, and lakewater conductivity between ∼250 and 14000...

Invasion of an asexual American water flea clone throughout Africa and rapid displacement of a native sibling species

The huge ecological and economic impact of biological invasions creates an urgent need for knowledge of traits that make invading species successful and factors helping indigenous populations to resist displacement by invading species or genotypes. High genetic diversity is generally considered to be advantageous in both processes. Combined with sex, it allows rapid evolution and adaptation to changing environments. We combined paleogenetic analysis with continent-wide survey of genetic diversity at nuclear and mitochondrial loci to reconstruct the invasion history of a single asexual American water flea clone (hybrid Daphnia pulex×Daphnia pulicaria) in Africa. Within 60 years of the original introduction of this invader, it displaced the genetically diverse, sexual population of native D. pulex in Lake Naivasha (Kenya), despite a formidable numerical advantage of the local population and continuous replenishment from a large dormant egg bank. Currently, the invading clone has spread throughout the range of native African D. pulex, where it appears to be the only occurring genotype. The absence of genetic variation did not hamper either the continent-wide establishment of this exotic lineage or the effective displacement of an indigenous and genetically diverse sibling species.

Reconstructing fluctuations of a shallow East African lake during the past 1800 yrs from sediment stratigraphy in a submerged crater basin

The sedimentology of an 8.22-m long core of late-Holocene deposits in the submerged Crescent Island Crater basin of Lake Naivasha, Kenya, is used to reconstruct decade-scale fluctuations in lake-surface elevation during the past 1800 yrs. Lake-depth inference for the past 1000 yrs is semi-quantitative, based on (1) relationships between lake level and bottom dynamics predicted by wave theory, and (2) historical validation of the effects of lake-level fluctuation and hydrologic closure on sediment composition in Crescent Island Crater and nearby Lake Oloidien. In these shallow fluctuating lakes, organic-carbon variation in a lithological sequence from clayey mud to algal gyttja is positively correlated with lake depth at the time of deposition, because the focusing of oxidized littoral sediments which dilute autochthonous organic matter before burial is reduced during highstands. The lake-level reconstruction for Lake Naivasha agrees with other adequately dated lake-level records from equatorial East Africa in its implication of dry climatic conditions during the Mediaeval Warm Period and generally wet conditions during the Little Ice Age. Crescent Island Crater survived widespread aridity in the early-19th century as a fresh weedy pond, while the main basin of Lake Naivasha and many other shallow East African lakes fell dry and truncated their sediment archive of Little Ice Age climatic variability.

Spatial complexity of ‘Little Ice Age’ climate in East Africa: sedimentary records from two crater lake basins in western Uganda

Lithostratigraphic analyses of the sedimentary record from two contrasting crater lake basins in western Uganda, Africa, provide evidence for three major century-scale arid intervals during the last 2000 years. Variations in sedimentation and salt mineralogy of hypersaline Lake Kitagata, and a succession of fine-grained lake sediments and peat in the freshwater Lake Kibengo, suggest century-scale droughts centred on AD 0, ~1100, ~1550 and 1750. These results broadly support data from nearby Lake Edward on the timing of drought in western Uganda, but contrast with lake sediment records from eastern equatorial Africa. In particular, our results suggest regional variability of East African climate during the main phase of the ‘Little Ice Age’ (AD ~1500 to 1800), with westernmost East Africa experiencing drought while areas farther east were wet. This spatial pattern highlights the strongly regional nature of century-scale climate changes over the African continent, and holds implications for the mechanisms governing African rainfall during the ‘Little Ice Age’.