Dmitry V. Mesyanzhinov

Capacity and economies of scale in electric power transmission

Abstract Historically, most analyses of electric utility cost structures have focused almost exclusively on the generation sector of the industry. Electric restructuring raises a number of new questions which require analysis of electric utility operations in other sectors of the industry. Most restructuring proposals call for continued regulation of the transmission sector of the industry based upon the presumption that it is a natural monopoly. The presumption, however, is based upon little empirical evidence. We present a modified translog cost model which examines whether economies of scale genuinely exist in the provision of electric transmission service. We find strong economies over all relevant ranges of capacity and across all regions of the USA. The result is timely since it supports existing restructuring policies calling for continued regulation of the transmission portion of the industry.

Explosive removals of offshore structures in the Gulf of Mexico

A statistical description of the explosive removal of offshore structures in the federally regulated Outer Continental Shelf of the Gulf of Mexico are presented based on data collected by the US Minerals Management Service. The influence of factors such as water depth, planning area, configuration type, and structure age upon the application of explosive removal methods are investigated. The number of structures expected to be removed from the Gulf of Mexico using explosive methods is also forecast over a short-term time horizon according to structure, configuration type, water depth, and a planning area categorization.

Long-term infrastructure forecasting in the Gulf of Mexico: a decision- and resource-based approach

Abstract A long-term infrastructure forecast in the Gulf of Mexico is developed in a disaggregated decision- and resource-based environment. Models for the installation and removal rates of structures are performed across five water depth categories for the Western and Central Gulf of Mexico planning areas for structures grouped according to a major and nonmajor classification. Master hydrocarbon production schedules are constructed per water depth and planning area using a two-parameter decision model, where “bundled” resources are recoverable at a given time and at a specific rate. The infrastructure requirements to support the expected production is determined by extrapolating historical data. The analytic forecasting framework allows for subjective judgement, technological change, analogy, and historical trends to be employed in a user-defined manner. Special attention to the aggregation procedures employed and the general methodological framework are highlighted, including a candid discussion of the limitations of analysis and suggestions for further research.