Doan Nainggolan

Participatory scenario development for environmental management: A methodological framework illustrated with experience from the UK uplands

A methodological framework is proposed for participatory scenario development on the basis of evidence from the literature, and is tested and refined through the development of scenarios for the future of UK uplands. The paper uses a review of previous work to justify a framework based around the following steps: i) define context and establish whether there is a basis for stakeholder engagement in scenario development; ii) systematically identify and represent relevant stakeholders in the process; iii) define clear objectives for scenario development with stakeholders including spatial and temporal boundaries; iv) select relevant participatory methods for scenario development, during initial scenario construction, evaluation and to support decision-making based on scenarios; and v) integrate local and scientific knowledge throughout the process. The application of this framework in case study research suggests that participatory scenario development has the potential to: i) make scenarios more relevant to stakeholder needs and priorities; ii) extend the range of scenarios developed; iii) develop more detailed and precise scenarios through the integration of local and scientific knowledge; and iv) move beyond scenario development to facilitate adaptation to future change. It is argued that participatory scenario development can empower stakeholders and lead to more consistent and robust scenarios that can help people prepare more effectively for future change.

Farmer typology, future scenarios and the implications for ecosystem service provision: a case study from south-eastern Spain

Farming communities are increasingly expected to manage their agricultural activities in ways that ensure sustainable flows of a wide range of ecosystem services for society. The land use and management choices that farmers make are dependent upon their socio-economic characteristics and background, and in turn have important implications for the landscape and associated ecosystem services. Thus, a better understanding about the linkages between the characteristics of farmers, farm management and land use is important for managing multifunctional agro-ecosystems. In this paper, we first develop a typology of farmers for Torrealvilla catchment in Murcia, Spain, according to the characteristics of their households and farm management (e.g. the farmer’s age, household income, water access, land tenure and farm labour). This analysis distinguishes six types of farmers. Secondly, we analyse the link between farmer typology and the farmers’ responses to a number of scenarios. The scenarios describe different likely changes to agriculture in the catchment in terms of environmental constraints (irrigation water availability and rainfall pattern) and environmental policy regulation (water taxation and subsidies). This exercise enables us to explore the range of future land use changes that are likely to occur in the study area. The results indicate that: rain-fed agriculture is expected to experience gradual but extensive abandonment; vegetable/fruit farming and pig/animal rearing are likely to stagnate or even decline; and growing of grapes is likely to expand. Thirdly, we qualitatively evaluate how future land use changes are likely to affect key ecosystem services in the study area including future agricultural production and associated local income generation, erosion control, maintenance of the groundwater table and various cultural services associated with a heterogeneous agro-ecosystem. Particular changes such as expansion of grape production will increase food production and local income at the cost of further depletion of the aquifer and increased risk of salinisation. The outcomes of the study highlight that, to be effective, the design of agri-environmental schemes and other government interventions (e.g. specific compulsory regulations on farming practices and associated water use) should carefully take into account the characteristics of the farmers within the area of interest, their land uses and the possible diversity of responses to policy and environmental drivers. Opportunities exist for future studies quantifying the extent of the impacts of ecosystem service provision through formal models combining farmers’ land use decision-making and spatially explicit modelling of landscape processes.

An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models

Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA–DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the “technology scenarios”; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the “policy scenarios”; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the “global scenarios”. Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

Regional consequences of the way land users respond to future water availability in Murcia, Spain

Agricultural development in the Murcia autonomous region, Spain, has led to overexploitation of groundwater resources, and climate change will further increase pressures. Policy options to tackle the current unsustainable situation include the development of inter-basin water transfer (IBWT) schemes from wetter regions in the north and the introduction of taxation to further control groundwater abstraction. Under these scenarios, farmers with current access to water could face higher water cost, whereas farmers in areas where water was previously not available could see first time availability of water resources. In this paper, we combine discrete choice-based interviews with farmers in the Torrealvilla catchment, in which they indicate how they would adapt their land use under different scenarios, with an input–output model to assess the aggregate effects of individual land use decisions on the economy and water consumption of the Murcia region. The paper presents steps taken in the development of an input–output table for Murcia, including disaggregation of the agricultural sector, accounting for sector water use and consideration of back- and forward linkages. We conclude that appropriate taxation can lead to better water use efficiency, but that this is delicate as relatively small changes in prices of agricultural products can have significant impacts on land use and water consumption. Although new IBWT schemes would enable water to be used more efficiently, they would considerably increase regional water consumption and the regional economy’s dependence on water. As this is not sustainable under future climate change, water saving development pathways need to be explored.

Crossroads of tourism: a complex spatial systems analysis of tourism and urban sprawl in the Algarve

Urban development combined with city expansion, has brought irreversible consequences for land use and environmental degradation. The balance between stability in urban areas and biodiversity, relates in essence to sustainability and economic development. This economic development in southern Europe is especially affected by service industries such as tourism. Preventing future damage is particularly necessary in coastal zones, where contributing factors of a human or natural nature require important strategies to be designed for regional and urban planning. The application of the spatial realities of land use within temporal dynamics allows the ex-ante assessment of spatial planning policies. The combination of economic, social, and natural consequences questions the application of complex system theory within spatio-temporal dynamics supporting regional decision making. In this context, geographic information systems, combined with spatial data inventories, are used for a systemic analysis of the dynamics of urban change within land-use dynamics and complex systems.

The significance of spatial fragmentation of land ownership for occurrence of scrubs on semi-natural grasslands

ContextTraditionally, studies of habitat fragmentation have focused on spatial isolation of habitats. Meanwhile, the role of fragmentation of land ownership and hence of parcelization of habitats remains, particularly in relation to management of semi-natural grasslands, not well understood.ObjectiveWe propose that, especially in a Danish context, fragmentation of land ownership leads to parcelization of semi-natural grassland habitats. This results in small parcel sizes, obstructing cost effective management in terms of grazing and mowing and consequently leads to encroachment of scrubs, threatening biodiversity.MethodsWe applied national, spatially explicit information about land ownership, management, semi-natural grasslands and vegetation height to examine the relationships between parcel size, management and the proportion of scrubs on semi-natural grasslands.ResultsResults from a regression analysis show that parcel size is significantly negatively related to proportion of scrubs; i.e. small parcels are associated with higher proportions of scrubs compared to large parcels. The results also show that the size of ownership parcels has a stronger explanatory power for the proportion of scrub compared to the size of habitat parcels, where ownership boundaries are not taken into account. Furthermore, parcels, with legal obligations for management, have significantly lower proportion of scrubs compared to parcels without management obligations.ConclusionsEfforts for conservation of and improvement of biodiversity on semi-natural grassland should pay increasing attention towards the importance of fragmentation of land ownership and parcelization of habitats. Our results point at the need for cross-farm cooperation to secure continuous grassland management to prevent scrub encroachment.