Domenico Della Casa

Predictive Factors of Mortality From Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage: A Multicenter Study

OBJECTIVES:From an Italian Registry of patients with upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (UGIH), we assessed the clinical outcomes and explored the roles of clinical, endoscopic, and therapeutic factors on 30-day mortality in a real life setting.METHODS:Prospective analysis of consecutive patients endoscoped for UGIH at 23 community and tertiary care institutions from 2003 to 2004. Covariates and outcomes were defined a priori and 30-day follow-up obtained. Logistic regression analysis identified predictors of mortality.RESULTS:One thousand and twenty patients were included. A total of 46 patients died for an overall 4.5% mortality rate. In all, 85% of deaths were associated with one or more major comorbidity. Sixteen of 46 patients (35%) died within the first 24 h of the onset of bleeding. Of these, eight had been categorized as ASA class 1 or 2 and none of them was operated upon, despite a failure of endoscopic intention to treatment in four. Regression analysis showed advanced age, presence of severe comorbidity, low hemoglobin levels at presentation, and worsening health status as the only independent predictors of 30-day mortality (P < 0.001). The acute use of a PPI exerted a protective effect (OR 0.23, 95% CI 0.09–0.73). Recurrent bleeding was low (3.2%). Rebleeders accounted for only 11% of the total patients deceased (OR 3.27, 95% CI 1.5–11.2).CONCLUSIONS:These results indicate that 30-day mortality for nonvariceal bleeding is low. Deaths occurred predominantly in elderly patients with severe comorbidities or those with failure of endoscopic intention to treatment.

A predictive model identifies patients most likely to have inadequate bowel preparation for colonoscopy.

BACKGROUND & AIMS An inadequate level of bowel preparation can affect the efficacy and safety of colonoscopy. Although some factors have been associated with outcome, there is no strategy to identify patients at high risk for inadequate preparation. We searched for factors associated with an inadequate level of preparation and tested the validity of a predictive clinical rule based on these factors. METHODS We performed a prospective study of 2811 consecutive patients who underwent colonoscopy examinations at 18 medical centers; clinical and demographic data were collected before the colonoscopy. Bowel preparation was classified as adequate or inadequate; 925 patients (33%) were found to have inadequate preparation. Multivariate analysis was used to identify factors associated with inadequate preparation, which were expressed as odds ratio (OR) and used to build a predictive model. RESULTS Factors associated with inadequate bowel preparation included being overweight (OR, 1.5), male sex (OR, 1.2), a high body mass index (OR, 1.1), older age (OR, 1.01), previous colorectal surgery (OR, 1.6), cirrhosis (OR, 5), Parkinson disease (OR, 3.2), diabetes (OR, 1.8), and positive results in a fecal occult test (OR, 0.6). These factors predicted which patients would have inadequate cleansing with 60% sensitivity, 59% specificity, 41% positive predictive value, and 76% negative predictive value; they had an under the receiver operating characteristic curve value of 0.63. Assuming 100% efficacy of a hypothetical regimen to address patients predicted to be at risk of inadequate preparation, the rate would decrease from 33% to 13%. CONCLUSIONS We identified factors associated with inadequate bowel preparation for colonoscopy and used these to build an accurate predictive model.

Predicting Mortality in Non-Variceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeders: Validation of the Italian PNED Score and Prospective Comparison With the Rockall Score

OBJECTIVES:We sought (i) to validate a new prediction rule of mortality (Progetto Nazionale Emorragia Digestiva (PNED) score) on an independent population with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) and (ii) to compare the accuracy of the Italian PNED score vs. the Rockall score in predicting the risk of death.METHODS:We conducted prospective validation of analysis of consecutive patients with UGIB at 21 hospitals from 2007 to 2008. Outcome measure was 30-day mortality. All the variables used to calculate the Rockall score as well as those identified in the Italian predictive model were considered. Calibration of the model was tested using the χ2 goodness-of-fit and performance characteristics with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was used to quantify the diagnostic accuracy of the two predictive models.RESULTS:Over a 16-month period, data on 1,360 patients were entered in a national database and analyzed. Peptic ulcer bleeding was recorded in 60.7% of cases. One or more comorbidities were present in 66% of patients. Endoscopic treatment was delivered in all high-risk patients followed by high-dose intravenous proton pump inhibitor in 95% of them. Sixty-six patients died (mortality 4.85%; 3.54–5.75). The PNED score showed a high discriminant capability and was significantly superior to the Rockall score in predicting the risk of death (AUC 0.81 (0.72–0.90) vs. 0.66 (0.60–0.72), P<0.000). Positive likelihood ratio for mortality in patients with a PNED risk score >8 was 16.05.CONCLUSIONS:The Italian 10-point score for the prediction of death was successfully validated in this independent population of patients with non-variceal gastrointestinal bleeding. The PNED score is accurate and superior to the Rockall score. Further external validation at the international level is needed.

HER-2 overexpression/amplification in Barrett's oesophagus predicts early transition from dysplasia to adenocarcinoma: a clinico-pathologic study.

Barrett’s oesophagus (BO) is the primary precursor lesion for oesophageal adenocarcinoma (ADC). The natural history of metaplasia‐dysplasia‐carcinoma sequence remains largely unknown. HER2/neu oncogene results overexpressed/amplified in preneoplastic lesions and in ADC of the oesophagus and it has been associated with poor prognosis. Our aim was to evaluate the role of HER2 overexpression/amplification in predicting the conversion from precursor lesions to ADC. We retrospectively evaluated by univariate analysis of single variables clinical records and histological specimens of 21 patients with a confirmed diagnosis of BO and/or oesophageal dysplasia. Clinical variables included age, gender, alcohol and smoking intake, presence of symptoms (pyrosis, disphagia) and endoscopic features (length). HER2 status was studied by immunohistochemistry and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) on paraffin‐embedded tissue. The end‐points were the occurrence of progression and the time‐to‐progression (TTP) from the initial histologic lesion to the worst pathological pattern. Median age at diagnosis was 63 years (range 37–84). BO median length was 4.5 cm. Progression occurred in 11 of 21 patients and median TTP was 24 months. HER2 was overexpressed/amplified in 8 of 21 (38%) patients. HER2 overexpression/ amplification and the presence of dysplasia were statistically associated with progression (P= 0.038). This study provides evidence for a possible role of HER2 in the transition from dysplasia to ADC of the oesophagus. This fact could help in identifying patients at high risk of malignant transformation.

Oesophageal manometry in early and definite systemic sclerosis

The objective of this study was to evaluate the oesophageal dysfunction in patients with “early” systemic sclerosis (SSc), as defined by LeRoy and Medsger, to compare it with that of patients with definite SSc, and to correlate it with other features of the disease. Oesophageal manometry results were retrospectively evaluated in 181 patients classified by the 2001 LeRoy and Medsger criteria and the 1980 American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria: group 1: limited SSc: Raynaud’s phenomenon plus specific nailfold capillaroscopy abnormalities and/or autoantibodies; group 2: limited cutaneous SSc not satisfying the ACR criteria (lcSSc ACR−); group 3: lcSSc ACR+; group 4: diffuse cutaneous SSc. Peristaltic abnormalities in the oesophageal body were present in 73 of 125 patients with SSc ACR+ (groups 3 and 4) compared with 13 of 56 with SSc ACR− (groups 1 and 2) (p<0.0001). They were more severe in patients with more advanced disease (1 vs 2; 1 vs 3; 1 vs 4; 2 vs 4; p<0.05) and in patients anti-Scl-70+ than in patients anticentromere positive (p=0.02). Abnormalities of the lower oesophageal sphincter (LES) were present in 35 of 125 patients with SSc ACR+ and 11 of 56 with SSc ACR− (not statistically different). They were correlated with forced vital capacity (FVC) (LES pressure: p=0.0005; LES length: p=0.0004). Abnormalities of the oesophageal body and of the LES were found in 21 and 16% of 46 patients without oesophageal symptoms. Oesophageal manometry can detect abnormalities in a sizeable proportion of patients with “early SSc” not fulfilling the ACR criteria, including asymptomatic patients. The correlation between LES abnormalities and FVC suggests a possible causal relationship between these disease manifestations.

History of cancer in first degree relatives of Barrett's esophagus patients: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE Familial clusters of Barretts esophagus (BE) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) have been reported. This study evaluates the history of cancer in BE patients families. METHODS In two years, patients with BE (272), esophagitis (456) and controls (517) were recruited in 12 Italian Endoscopy Units. Cancer family history in first-degree (FD) relatives was determined by a questionnaire. RESULTS Approximately 53% of BE, 51% of esophagitis, and 48% of controls had at least one relative affected by any type of malignancy. Probands with at least one esophageal or gastric (E/G) cancer-affected relative showed a BE risk which was at least eighty-five percent higher than that of probands without affected relatives. The relative risk of BE was 4.18, 95% CL=0.76-23.04 if a FD relative had early (mean age ≤ 50 years) onset E/G cancer compared to late onset E/G cancer. CONCLUSION In this sample there was no evidence that a family history of cancer was associated with the diagnosis of BE. An intriguing result was the association between the occurrence of E/G cancers at earlier ages (< 50 years) among BE relatives with respect the control group. This could suggest a genetic contribution in onset of these tumors, but the sample was too small to demonstrate a significant association. Further exploration of family history of E/G cancer and a diagnosis of BE in larger samples is warranted.

Alcohol consumption pattern and risk of Barrett's oesophagus and erosive oesophagitis: an Italian case-control study

Knowledge about the association between alcohol and Barretts oesophagus and reflux oesophagitis is conflicting. In this case-control study we evaluated the role of specific alcoholic beverages (red and white wine, beer and liquors) in 339 Barretts oesophagus and 462 oesophagitis patients compared with 619 endoscopic controls with other disorders, recruited in twelve Italian endoscopic units. Data on alcohol and other individual characteristics were obtained from structured questionnaires. No clear, monotonic significant dose-response relationship was pointed out for red wine. However, a generalised U-shaped trend of Barretts oesophagus/oesophagitis risk due to red wine consumption particularly among current drinkers was found. Similar results were also found for white wine. Liquor/spirit consumption seemed to bring about a 1·14-2·30 risk excess, although statistically non-significant, for current Barretts oesophagus/oesophagitis drinkers. Statistically significant decreasing dose-response relationships were found in Barretts oesophagus for frequency and duration of beer consumption. Similar, but less clear downward tendencies were also found for oesophagitis patients. In conclusion, although often not statistically significant, our data suggested a reduced risk of Barretts oesophagus and oesophagitis with a low/moderate intake of wine and beer consumption. A non-significant increased risk of Barretts oesophagus/oesophagitis was observed with a higher intake of any type of heavy alcohol consumption, but no conclusion can be drawn owing to the high number of non-spirit drinkers and to the small number of drinkers at higher alcohol intake levels.

Lower Gastrointestinal Endoscopy For Polyps and Polyposis

Colonoscopy has become the leading method to explore the entire colon, and is currently considered the gold standard for colorectal cancer screening. Improvements in technology have provided specific diagnostic capability, and the treatment of dysplastic and neoplastic superficial lesions is now achievable in the majority of patients, by adopting sophisticated resection techniques. Endoscopic treatment of polyps must be performed in order to both minimize the risks of the procedure and optimize the completeness of the removal, thereby reducing recurrence; therefore operators must be skilled and continuously trained, in order to perform local treatment by either endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) or endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD). In this way, endoscopic resection can be considered a safe and effective alternative to surgery for the treatment of colorectal polyps.