Dominique Costagliola

Prognosis of HIV-1-infected patients starting highly active antiretroviral therapy: a collaborative analysis of prospective studies.

BACKGROUND Insufficient data are available from single cohort studies to allow estimation of the prognosis of HIV-1 infected, treatment-naive patients who start highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). The ART Cohort Collaboration, which includes 13 cohort studies from Europe and North America, was established to fill this knowledge gap. METHODS We analysed data on 12,574 adult patients starting HAART with a combination of at least three drugs. Data were analysed by intention-to-continue-treatment, ignoring treatment changes and interruptions. We considered progression to a combined endpoint of a new AIDS-defining disease or death, and to death alone. The prognostic model that generalised best was a Weibull model, stratified by baseline CD4 cell count and transmission group. FINDINGS During 24,310 person-years of follow up, 1094 patients developed AIDS or died and 344 patients died. Baseline CD4 cell count was strongly associated with the probability of progression to AIDS or death: compared with patients starting HAART with less than 50 CD4 cells/microL, adjusted hazard ratios were 0.74 (95% CI 0.62-0.89) for 50-99 cells/microL, 0.52 (0.44-0.63) for 100-199 cells/microL, 0.24 (0.20-0.30) for 200-349 cells/microL, and 0.18 (0.14-0.22) for 350 or more CD4 cells/microL. Baseline HIV-1 viral load was associated with a higher probability of progression only if 100,000 copies/microL or above. Other independent predictors of poorer outcome were advanced age, infection through injection-drug use, and a previous diagnosis of AIDS. The probability of progression to AIDS or death at 3 years ranged from 3.4% (2.8-4.1) in patients in the lowest-risk stratum for each prognostic variable, to 50% (43-58) in patients in the highest-risk strata. INTERPRETATION The CD4 cell count at initiation was the dominant prognostic factor in patients starting HAART. Our findings have important implications for clinical management and should be taken into account in future treatment guidelines.

Superior control of HIV-1 replication by CD8+ T cells is reflected by their avidity, polyfunctionality, and clonal turnover

The key attributes of CD8+ T cell protective immunity in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection remain unclear. We report that CD8+ T cell responses specific for Gag and, in particular, the immunodominant p24 epitope KK10 correlate with control of HIV-1 replication in human histocompatibility leukocyte antigen (HLA)–B27 patients. To understand further the nature of CD8+ T cell–mediated antiviral efficacy, we performed a comprehensive study of CD8+ T cells specific for the HLA-B27–restricted epitope KK10 in chronic HIV-1 infection based on the use of multiparametric flow cytometry together with molecular clonotypic analysis and viral sequencing. We show that B27-KK10–specific CD8+ T cells are characterized by polyfunctional capabilities, increased clonal turnover, and superior functional avidity. Such attributes are interlinked and constitute the basis for effective control of HIV-1 replication. These data on the features of effective CD8+ T cells in HIV infection may aid in the development of successful T cell vaccines.

Post-Treatment HIV-1 Controllers with a Long-Term Virological Remission after the Interruption of Early Initiated Antiretroviral Therapy ANRS VISCONTI Study

Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) reduces HIV-associated morbidities and mortalities but cannot cure the infection. Given the difficulty of eradicating HIV-1, a functional cure for HIV-infected patients appears to be a more reachable short-term goal. We identified 14 HIV patients (post-treatment controllers [PTCs]) whose viremia remained controlled for several years after the interruption of prolonged cART initiated during the primary infection. Most PTCs lacked the protective HLA B alleles that are overrepresented in spontaneous HIV controllers (HICs); instead, they carried risk-associated HLA alleles that were largely absent among the HICs. Accordingly, the PTCs had poorer CD8+ T cell responses and more severe primary infections than the HICs did. Moreover, the incidence of viral control after the interruption of early antiretroviral therapy was higher among the PTCs than has been reported for spontaneous control. Off therapy, the PTCs were able to maintain and, in some cases, further reduce an extremely low viral reservoir. We found that long-lived HIV-infected CD4+ T cells contributed poorly to the total resting HIV reservoir in the PTCs because of a low rate of infection of naïve T cells and a skewed distribution of resting memory CD4+ T cell subsets. Our results show that early and prolonged cART may allow some individuals with a rather unfavorable background to achieve long-term infection control and may have important implications in the search for a functional HIV cure.

Prevalence of Drug-Resistant HIV-1 Variants in Untreated Individuals in Europe: Implications for Clinical Management

BACKGROUND Infection with drug-resistant human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) can impair the response to combination therapy. Widespread transmission of drug-resistant variants has the disturbing potential of limiting future therapy options and affecting the efficacy of postexposure prophylaxis. METHODS We determined the baseline rate of drug resistance in 2208 therapy-naive patients recently and chronically infected with HIV-1 from 19 European countries during 1996-2002. RESULTS In Europe, 1 of 10 antiretroviral-naive patients carried viruses with > or = 1 drug-resistance mutation. Recently infected patients harbored resistant variants more often than did chronically infected patients (13.5% vs. 8.7%; P=.006). Non-B viruses (30%) less frequently carried resistance mutations than did subtype B viruses (4.8% vs. 12.9%; P<.01). Baseline resistance increased over time in newly diagnosed cases of non-B infection: from 2.0% (1/49) in 1996-1998 to 8.2% (16/194) in 2000-2001. CONCLUSIONS Drug-resistant variants are frequently present in both recently and chronically infected therapy-naive patients. Drug-resistant variants are most commonly seen in patients infected with subtype B virus, probably because of longer exposure of these viruses to drugs. However, an increase in baseline resistance in non-B viruses is observed. These data argue for testing all drug-naive patients and are of relevance when guidelines for management of postexposure prophylaxis and first-line therapy are updated.

Effect of immunodeficiency, HIV viral load, and antiretroviral therapy on the risk of individual malignancies (FHDH-ANRS CO4): a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND The relative roles of immunodeficiency, HIV viral load, and combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in the onset of individual cancers have rarely been examined. We examined the effect of these factors on the risk of specific cancers in patients infected with HIV-1. METHODS We investigated the incidence of both AIDS-defining cancers (Kaposis sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and cervical cancer) and non-AIDS-defining cancers (Hodgkins lymphoma, lung cancer, liver cancer, and anal cancer) in 52 278 patients followed up in the French Hospital Database on HIV cohort during 1998-2006 (median follow-up 4.9 years, IQR 2.1-7.9; 255 353 person-years). We tested 78 models with different classifications of immunodeficiency, viral load, and cART with Poisson regression. FINDINGS Current CD4 cell count was the most predictive risk factor for all malignancies apart from anal cancer. Compared with patients with CD4 count greater than 500 cells per microL, rate ratios (RR) ranged from 1.9 (95% CI 1.3-2.7) for CD4 counts 350-499 cells per microL to 25.2 (17.1-37.0) for counts less than 50 cells per microL for Kaposis sarcoma (p<0.0001), from 1.3 (0.9-2.0) to 14.8 (9.7-22.6) for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (p<0.0001), from 1.2 (0.7-2.2) to 5.4 (2.4-12.1) for Hodgkins lymphoma (p<0.0001), from 2.2 (1.3-3.6) to 8.5 (4.3-16.7) for lung cancer (p<0.0001), and from 2.0 (0.9-4.5) to 7.6 (2.7-20.8) for liver cancer (p<0.0001). For cervical cancer, we noted a strong effect of current CD4 (RR 0.7 per log(2), 95% CI 0.6-0.8; p=0.0002). The risk of Kaposis sarcoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma increased for current plasma HIV RNA greater than 100 000 copies per mL compared with patients with controlled viral load (RR 3.1, 95% CI 2.3-4.2, p<0.0001; and 2.9, 2.1-3.9, p<0.0001, respectively), whereas cART was independently associated with a decreased incidence (0.3, 0.2-0.4, p<0.0001; and 0.8, 0.6-1.0, p=0.07, respectively). The RR of cervical cancer for those receiving cART was 0.5 (0.3-0.9; p=0.03). The risk of anal cancer increased with the time during which the CD4 count was less than 200 cells per microL (1.3 per year, 1.2-1.5; p=0.0001), and viral load was greater than 100 000 copies per mL (1.2 per year, 1.1-1.4, p=0.005). INTERPRETATION cART would be most beneficial if it restores or maintains CD4 count above 500 cells per microL, thereby indicating an earlier diagnosis of HIV infection and an earlier treatment initiation. Cancer-specific screening programmes need to be assessed in patients with HIV. FUNDING Agence Nationale de Recherches sur le SIDA et les hépatites (ANRS), INSERM, and the French Ministry of Health.

Causes of death in HIV-1-infected patients treated with antiretroviral therapy, 1996-2006: collaborative analysis of 13 HIV cohort studies

BACKGROUND We examined specific causes of mortality in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-infected patients who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Europe and North America from 1996 through 2006, and we quantified associations of prognostic factors with cause-specific mortality. METHODS We retrospectively classified all deaths among 39,272 patients enrolled in 13 HIV-1 cohorts (154,667 person years of follow-up) into the categories specified in the Cause of Death (CoDe) project protocol. RESULTS In 1597 (85%) of 1876 deaths, a definitive cause of death could be assigned. Among these, 792 deaths (49.5%) were AIDS related, followed by non-AIDS malignancies (189; 11.8%), non-AIDS infections (131; 8.2%), violence- and/or drug-related causes (124; 7.7%), liver disease (113; 7.0%), and cardiovascular disease (103; 6.5%). Rates of AIDS-related death (hazard ratio [HR] per 100 cell decrease, 1.43; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.34-1.53) and death from renal failure (HR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.18-2.55) were strongly inversely related to CD4 count at initiation of ART, whereas rates of death attributable to AIDS (HR for viral load >5 vs 5 log copies/mL, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.12-1.53), infection (HR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.25-2.73), cardiovascular (HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.05-2.27), and respiratory causes (HR, 3.62; 95% CI, 1.30-10.09) were higher in patients with baseline viral load >5 log copies/mL than in other patients. Rates of each cause of death were higher in patients with presumed transmission via injection drug use than in other patients, with marked increases in rates of liver-related (HR for injection drug use vs non-injection drug use, 6.06; 95% CI, 4.03-9.09) and respiratory tract-related (HR, 4.94; 95% CI, 1.96-12.45) mortality. The proportion of deaths classified as AIDS related decreased with increasing duration of ART. CONCLUSIONS Important contributors to non-AIDS mortality in treated HIV-1-infected individuals must be addressed if decreases in mortality rates are to continue.

Incidence of non-AIDS-defining cancers before and during the highly active antiretroviral therapy era in a cohort of human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients

PURPOSE To determine incidence of non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADC) in HIV-infected patients before (P1) and during (P2) the use of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) relative to that observed in the French general population (FGP) of the same age and sex. PATIENTS AND METHODS Sex- and age-adjusted NADC standardized incidence ratios (SIR), with FGP as reference, were estimated in 1992 to 1995 (P1) and in 1996 to 1999 (P2) in a French Hospital Database on HIV prospective hospital cohort study. RESULTS NADCs were diagnosed in 260 patients during P1 and 391 patients during P2 among the 77,025 patients included in the database between January 1, 1992, and December 31, 1999. Estimated incidence of all cancers was higher in HIV-infected men than in FGP during both periods (P1 SIR = 2.36 and P2 SIR = 1.91). No excess of cancers was observed among HIV-infected women in either period. Incidence of all cancers did not change from P1 to P2 in either sex (SIR = 0.96 for men and 1.00 for women). In contrast, incidence of Hodgkins disease (HD) was higher than in FGP in both sexes and both periods and increased in P2 as compared with P1; incidence of lung cancer was higher in both sexes during P2. CONCLUSION Relative to FGP, the overall incidence of NADCs was increased in HIV-infected men but not in women and did not differ between P1 and P2. Only HD was much more common in HIV infection, and the potential role of HAART on HD cannot be excluded.

Changes in Causes of Death Among Adults Infected by HIV Between 2000 and 2005 : The Mortalité 2000 and 2005 Surveys (ANRS EN19 and Mortavic)

Background:The multicenter national Mortalité 2005 survey aimed at describing the distribution of causes of death among HIV-infected adults in France in 2005 and its changes as compared with 2000. Methods:Physicians involved in the management of HIV infection notified deaths and documented the causes using a standardized questionnaire similar to the previous survey performed in 2000. Results:Overall, 1042 deaths were notified in 2005 (vs 964 in 2000): with median age, 46 years (vs 41 years); men, 76%; and median last CD4 cell count, 161/mm3 (vs 94). The proportion of underlying causes of death due to AIDS decreased (36% in 2005 vs 47% in 2000), and the proportion of cancer not related to AIDS or hepatitis (17% vs 11%), liver related disease (15% vs 13%: hepatitis C, 11%, and hepatitis B, 2%), cardiovascular disease (8% vs 7%), or suicide (5% vs 4%) increased. Among the 375 AIDS-related deaths, the most frequent event was non-Hodgkin lymphoma (28%). Among cancers not related to AIDS or hepatitis, the most frequent localizations were lung (31%) and digestive tract (14%). Among the 154 liver-related deaths, 24% were due to hepatocarcinoma. Conclusions:The heterogeneity of causes of death among HIV-infected adults was confirmed and intensified in 2005, with 3 causes following AIDS: cancers and liver-related and cardiovascular diseases.

Prognosis of HIV-1-infected patients up to 5 years after initiation of HAART: collaborative analysis of prospective studies

Objective:To estimate the prognosis over 5 years of HIV-1-infected, treatment-naive patients starting HAART, taking into account the immunological and virological response to therapy. Design:A collaborative analysis of data from 12 cohorts in Europe and north America on 20 379 adults who started HAART between 1995 and 2003. Methods:Parametric survival models were used to predict the cumulative incidence at 5 years of a new AIDS-defining event or death, and death alone, first from the start of HAART and second from 6 months after the start of HAART. Data were analysed by intention-to-continue-treatment, ignoring treatment changes and interruptions. Results:During 61 798 person-years of follow-up, 1005 patients died and an additional 1303 developed AIDS. A total of 10 046 (49%) patients started HAART either with a CD4 cell count of less than 200 cells/μl or with a diagnosis of AIDS. The 5-year risk of AIDS or death (death alone) from the start of HAART ranged from 5.6 to 77% (1.8–65%), depending on age, CD4 cell count, HIV-1-RNA level, clinical stage, and history of injection drug use. From 6 months the corresponding figures were 4.1–99% for AIDS or death and 1.3–96% for death alone. Conclusion:On the basis of data collected routinely in HIV care, prognostic models with high discriminatory power over 5 years were developed for patients starting HAART in industrialized countries. A risk calculator that produces estimates for progression rates at years 1 to 5 after starting HAART is available from www.art-cohort-collaboration.org.

Prognostic importance of initial response in HIV-1 infected patients starting potent antiretroviral therapy: analysis of prospective studies.

BACKGROUND We examined whether the initial virological and immunological response to highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) is prognostic in patients with HIV-1 who start HAART. METHODS We analysed 13 cohort studies from Europe and North America including 9323 adult treatment-naive patients who were starting HAART with a combination of at least three drugs. We modelled clinical progression from month 6 after starting HAART, taking into account CD4 count and HIV-1 RNA measured at baseline and 6 months. FINDINGS During 13408 years of follow-up 152 patients died and 874 developed AIDS or died. Compared with patients who had a 6-month CD4 count of fewer than 25 cells/microL, adjusted hazard ratios for AIDS or death were 0.55 (95%CI 0.32-0.96) for 25-49 cells/microL, 0.62 (0.40-0.96) for 50-99 cells/microL, 0.42 (0.28-0.64) for 100-199 cells/microL, 0.25 (0.16-0.38) for 200-349 cells/microL, and 0.18 (0.11-0.29) for 350 or more cells/microL at 6 months. Compared with patients who had a 6-month HIV-1 RNA of 100000 copies/mL or greater, adjusted hazard ratios for AIDS or death were 0.59 (0.41-0.86) for 10000-99999 copies/mL, 0.42 (0.29-0.61) for 500-9999 copies/mL, and 0.29 (0.21-0.39) for 6-month HIV-1 RNA of 500 copies/mL or fewer. Baseline CD4 and HIV-1 RNA were not associated with progression after controlling for 6-month concentrations. The probability of progression at 3 years ranged from 2.4% in the patients in the lowest-risk stratum to 83% in patients in the highest-risk stratum. INTERPRETATION At 6 months after starting HAART, the current CD4 cell count and viral load, but not values at baseline, are strongly associated with subsequent disease progression. Our findings should inform guidelines on when to modify HAART.