Don Bredin

Monetary Shocks and REIT Returns

We investigate the influence of unanticipated changes in US monetary policy on Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT’s). Although a number of studies have investigated the issue of interest rate changes, the effect of unanticipated changes has not previously been addressed in terms of possible effects on both REIT’s returns and volatility. The results show a strong response in both the first and second moments of REIT returns to unexpected policy rate changes. The results for the impact of the shock on both mean and volatility of returns is consistent with results from studies addressing broader equity markets. However, we find evidence both against behavioral changes in volatility coincident to US monetary policy decisions and asymmetric responses to the monetary policy shock.

An examination of investor sentiment effect on G7 stock market returns

This paper examines the relationship between investor sentiment and G7 stock market returns. Using a range of investor sentiment proxies, including investor survey, equity fund flow, closed-end equity fund (CEEF) discount and equity put–call ratio, we examine if investor sentiment has a significant influence on value and growth stock returns as well as aggregate market returns. Using monthly data for the period January 1995–December 2007, our results depict a negative relationship between investor sentiment and future returns. We find results that are consistent with previous studies in that when investor sentiment is high (low), future returns are low (high). Our panel results display evidence of commonality across all the sentiment measures with the value stocks having a particularly strong effect relative to growth stocks. Furthermore, the effect of survey sentiment on future returns gradually decreases beyond the one-month forecast horizon. We observe evidence of price pressure on value stocks and the overall market due to increases in concurrent equity fund flow. Finally, the discount of CEEFs is also found to proxy for investor sentiment, with a narrower discount being associated with an increase (decrease) in value (growth) stocks.

Does Gold Glitter in the Long-Run? Gold as a Hedge and Safe Haven Across Time and Investment Horizon

During times of market turmoil, investors often seek to mitigate risks associated with traditional investment assets such as equities and debt. The hedging and safe-haven properties of gold are examined in this paper for investors with short- and long-run horizons. Utilizing wavelet analysis, we find that gold acts as a hedge for a variety of international equity and debt markets for horizons of up to one year. The safe haven properties of gold during financial crises are further established, with gold shown to act as a safe haven for equity investors for long-run horizons of up to one year. However, during the economic contractions of the early 1980s gold is found not to act as a safe haven, displaying a positive relationship with equities across a range of horizons.

Correlation dynamics between Asia-Pacific, EU and US stock returns

This paper investigates the correlation dynamics in the equity markets of 13 Asia-Pacific countries, Europe and the US using the asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model (AG-DCC-GARCH) introduced by Cappiello, Engle and Sheppard (2006). We find significant variation in correlation between markets through time. Stocks exhibit asymmetries in conditional correlations in addition to conditional volatility. Yet asymmetry is less apparent in less integrated markets. The Asian crisis acts as a structural break, with correlations increasing markedly between crisis countries during this period though the bear market in the early 2000s is a more significant event for correlations with developed markets. Our findings also provide further evidence consistent with increasing global market integration. The documented asymmetries and correlation dynamics have important implications for international portfolio diversification and asset allocation.

Domestic and foreign institutional investors’ behavior in China

This paper compares the investment characteristics between foreign funds operating under Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFIIs) in China and domestic Chinese funds and analyzes the firm-level drivers that influence their allocation choices. The analysis reveals that foreign funds have a preference for a range of sectors such as transportation, metals and non-metals, and machinery, as opposed to industries with a requirement for local knowledge. The portfolios of domestic Chinese funds are distributed more evenly than those of the foreign funds. The comparative analysis indicates that foreign funds invest in firms that are significantly different from those favored by domestic funds in terms of size, profit, and compensation of management. Finally, we find that when making investment decisions, foreign funds tend to rely on some corporate governance indicators, which is not consistent with the results obtained from previous studies examining developed markets. In particular, foreign funds have a preference for firms with a high percentage of state-owned shares, while the reverse is the case for domestic funds. These empirical findings highlight the differences between QFII and domestic fund investment preferences and will be of value to policy-makers in emerging markets, and China, in particular, in gauging the important drivers of foreign investment.

US monetary policy announcements and Irish stock market volatility

The influence of foreign monetary policy decisions on the volatility of the Irish stock market is investigated. Specifically, the influence of US monetary policy announcements on the ISEQ is examined. Evidence of the so-called calm before the storm is found, i.e., there appears to be a decline in volatility on the day prior to an FOMC meeting and a subsequent increase in volatility after the results of the FOMC meeting is made known. Also evidence is found to suggest that ISEQ volatility is influenced by surprise changes in US monetary policy. Moreover, US monetary surprises appear to affect Irish stock return volatility asymmetrically with a surprise tightening of US monetary policy leading to an increase in Irish stock return volatility. This paper represents an important step in addressing the issues of spillover identification between the USA and the Irish stock market.

Regime Change and the Role of International Markets on the Stock Returns of Small Open Economies

We examine the influence of US, UK and German macroeconomic and financial variables on the stock returns of two relatively small, open European economies, Ireland and Denmark. Within a nonlinear framework, we allow for time variation via regime switching using a smooth transition regression (STR) model. We find that US (global) and UK and German (regional) stock returns are significant determinants of returns in both markets. Further, global information represented by oil and US asset price movements drive changes between states in each market. Significantly, the role of country-specific domestic variables is typically confined to a single state while global and regional variables pervade all states.

Chapter 3 Correlation dynamics between Asia-Pacific, EU and US stock returns

This chapter investigates the correlation dynamics in the equity markets of 13 Asia-Pacific countries, Europe and the US using the asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model (AG-DCC-GARCH) introduced by Cappiello, Engle, and Sheppard (2006). We find significant variation in correlation between markets through time. Stocks exhibit asymmetries in conditional correlations in addition to conditional volatility. Yet asymmetry is less apparent in less integrated markets. The Asian crisis acts as a structural break, with correlations increasing markedly between crisis countries during this period though the bear market in the early 2000s is a more significant event for correlations with developed markets. Our findings also provide further evidence consistent with increasing global market integration. The documented asymmetries and correlation dynamics have important implications for international portfolio diversification and asset allocation.

An analysis of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Ireland

This paper examines the impact of a monetary policy shock on output, prices and the exchange rate for Ireland during its participation in the EMS. The paper draws on recent techniques used in the structural vector autoregression literature. Results suggest that an exogenous temporary increase in the short-term interest rate leads to a decline in output and prices with the latter responding more sluggishly. In addition, a higher interest rate leads to an immediate appreciation of the domestic exchange rate and a subsequent depreciation of the currency. Exchange rate or forward bias puzzle, which are prevalent in other studies, are not found. The robustness of these results is checked under a number of alternative identifications schemes

Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Performance in Asian Countries

We use a very general bivariate GARCH-M model and quarterly data for five Asian countries to test for the impact of real and nominal macroeconomic uncertainty on inflation and output growth. We conclude the following. First, in the majority of countries uncertainty regarding the output growth rate is related negatively to the average growth rate. Secondly, contrary to expectations, inflation uncertainty in most cases does not harm the output growth performance of an economy. Thirdly, inflation and output uncertainty have a mixed effect on inflation. Consistent results are found using the VAR-GARCH-M approach to investigate the dynamic relationship between inflation and output growth using impulse response functions. This evidence implies that macroeconomic uncertainty may even improve macroeconomic performance, i.e. raise output growth and reduce inflation. Our empirical results highlight important differences with those for industrialized countries.