Don Mueller

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Capabilities and Data in SCALE

Abstract In SCALE 6, the Tools for Sensitivity and UNcertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation (TSUNAMI) modules calculate the sensitivity of keff or reactivity differences to the neutron cross-section data on an energy-dependent, nuclide-reaction-specific basis. These sensitivity data are useful for uncertainty quantification, using the comprehensive neutron cross-section-covariance data in SCALE 6. Additional modules in SCALE 6 use the sensitivity and uncertainty data to produce correlation coefficients and other relational parameters that quantify the similarity of benchmark experiments to application systems for code validation purposes. Bias and bias uncertainties are quantified using parametric trending analysis or data adjustment techniques, providing detailed assessments of sources of biases and their uncertainties and quantifying gaps in experimental data available for validation. An example application of these methods is presented for a generic burnup credit cask model.

TSUNAMI Primer: A Primer for Sensitivity/Uncertainty Calculations with SCALE

This primer presents examples in the application of the SCALE/TSUNAMI tools to generate k{sub eff} sensitivity data for one- and three-dimensional models using TSUNAMI-1D and -3D and to examine uncertainties in the computed k{sub eff} values due to uncertainties in the cross-section data used in their calculation. The proper use of unit cell data and need for confirming the appropriate selection of input parameters through direct perturbations are described. The uses of sensitivity and uncertainty data to identify and rank potential sources of computational bias in an application system and TSUNAMI tools for assessment of system similarity using sensitivity and uncertainty criteria are demonstrated. Uses of these criteria in trending analyses to assess computational biases, bias uncertainties, and gap analyses are also described. Additionally, an application of the data adjustment tool TSURFER is provided, including identification of specific details of sources of computational bias.

An Approach for Validating Actinide and Fission Product Burnup Credit Criticality Safety Analyses: Criticality (keff) Predictions

Abstract One of the most significant remaining challenges associated with expanded implementation of burnup credit in the United States is the validation of depletion and criticality calculations used in the safety evaluation—in particular, the availability and use of applicable measured data to support validation, especially for fission products (FPs). Applicants and regulatory reviewers have been constrained by both a scarcity of data and a lack of clear technical basis or approach for use of the data. This paper describes a validation approach for commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) criticality safety (keff) evaluations based on best-available data and methods and applies the approach for representative SNF storage and transport configurations/conditions to demonstrate its usage and applicability, as well as to provide reference bias results. The criticality validation approach utilizes not only available laboratory critical experiment (LCE) data from the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments and the French Haut Taux de Combustion program to support validation of the principal actinides but also calculated sensitivities, nuclear data uncertainties, and limited available FP LCE data to predict and verify individual biases for relevant minor actinides and FPs. The results demonstrate that (a) sufficient critical experiment data exist to adequately validate keff calculations via conventional validation approaches for the primary actinides, (b) sensitivity-based critical experiment selection is more appropriate for generating accurate application model bias and uncertainty, and (c) calculated sensitivities and nuclear data uncertainties can be used for generating conservative estimates of bias for minor actinides and FPs. Results based on the SCALE 6.1 and the ENDF/B-VII.0 cross-section libraries indicate that a conservative estimate of the bias for the minor actinides and FPs is 1.5% of their worth within the application model. This paper provides a detailed description of the approach and its technical bases, describes the application of the approach for representative pressurized water reactor and boiling water reactor safety analysis models, and provides reference bias results based on the prerelease SCALE 6.1 code package and ENDF/B-VII nuclear cross-section data.

Application of Spatial Data Modeling Systems, Geographical Information Systems (GIS), and Transportation Routing Optimization Methods for Evaluating Integrated Deployment of Interim Spent Fuel Storage Installations and Advanced Nuclear Plants

The objective of this siting study work is to support DOE in evaluating integrated advanced nuclear plant and ISFSI deployment options in the future. This study looks at several nuclear power plant growth scenarios that consider the locations of existing and planned commercial nuclear power plants integrated with the establishment of consolidated interim spent fuel storage installations (ISFSIs). This research project is aimed at providing methodologies, information, and insights that inform the process for determining and optimizing candidate areas for new advanced nuclear power generation plants and consolidated ISFSIs to meet projected US electric power demands for the future.

Assessment of Fission Product Cross-Section Data for Burnup Credit Applications

Past efforts by the Department of Energy (DOE), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and others have provided sufficient technical information to enable the NRC to issue regulatory guidance for implementation of pressurized-water reactor (PWR) burnup credit; however, consideration of only the reactivity change due to the major actinides is recommended in the guidance. Moreover, DOE, NRC, and EPRI have noted the need for additional scientific and technical data to justify expanding PWR burnup credit to include fission product (FP) nuclides and enable burnup credit implementation for boiling-water reactor (BWR) spent nuclear fuel (SNF). The criticality safety assessment needed for burnup credit applications will utilize computational analyses of packages containing SNF with FP nuclides. Over the years, significant efforts have been devoted to the nuclear data evaluation of major isotopes pertinent to reactor applications (i.e., uranium, plutonium, etc.); however, efforts to evaluate FP cross-section data in the resonance region have been less thorough relative to actinide data. In particular, resonance region cross-section measurements with corresponding R-matrix resonance analyses have not been performed for FP nuclides. Therefore, the objective of this work is to assess the status and performance of existing FP cross-section and cross-section uncertainty data in the resonance region for use in burnup credit analyses. Recommendations for new cross-section measurements and/or evaluations are made based on the data assessment. The assessment focuses on seven primary FP isotopes (103Rh, 133Cs, 143Nd, 149Sm, 151Sm, 152Sm, and 155Gd) that impact reactivity analyses of transportation packages and two FP isotopes (153Eu and 155Eu) that impact prediction of 155Gd concentrations. Much of the assessment work was completed in 2005, and the assessment focused on the latest FP cross-section evaluations available in the international nuclear data community as of March 2005. The accuracy of the cross-section data was investigated by comparing existing cross-section evaluations against available measured cross-section data. When possible, benchmark calculations were also used to assess the performance of the latest FP cross-section data. Since March 2005, the U.S. and European data projects have released newer versions of their respective data files. Although there have been updates to the international data files and to some degree FP data, much of the updates have included nuclear cross-section modeling improvements at energies above the resonance region. The one exception is improved ENDF/B-VII cross-section uncertainty data or covariance data for gadolinium isotopes. In particular, ENDF/B-VII includes improved 155Gd resonance parameter covariance data, but they are based on previously measured resonance data. Although the new covariance data are available for 155Gd, the conclusions of the FP cross-section data assessment of this report still hold in lieu of the newer international cross-section data files. Based on the FP data assessment, there is judged to be a need for new total and capture cross-section measurements and corresponding cross-section evaluations, in a prioritized manner, for the nine FPs to provide the improved information and technical rigor needed for criticality safety analyses.