Donal Ray Mullineaux

Mount St. Helens a decade after the 1980 eruptions: magmatic models, chemical cycles, and a revised hazards assessment

Available geophysical and geologic data provide a simplified model of the current magmatic plumbing system of Mount St. Helens (MSH). This model and new geochemical data are the basis for the revised hazards assessment presented here. The assessment is weighted by the style of eruptions and the chemistry of magmas erupted during the past 500 years, the interval for which the most detailed stratigraphic and geochemical data are available. This interval includes the Kalama (A. D. 1480–1770s?), Goat Rocks (A.D. 1800–1857), and current eruptive periods. In each of these periods, silica content decreased, then increased. The Kalama is a large amplitude chemical cycle (SiO2: 57%–67%), produced by mixing of arc dacite, which is depleted in high field-strength and incompatible elements, with enriched (OIB-like) basalt. The Goat Rocks and current cycles are of small amplitude (SiO2: 61%–64% and 62%–65%) and are related to the fluid dynamics of magma withdrawal from a zoned reservoir. The cyclic behavior is used to forecast future activity. The 1980–1986 chemical cycle, and consequently the current eruptive period, appears to be virtually complete. This inference is supported by the progressively decreasing volumes and volatile contents of magma erupted since 1980, both changes that suggest a decreasing potential for a major explosive eruption in the near future. However, recent changes in seismicity and a series of small gas-release explosions (beginning in late 1989 and accompanied by eruption of a minor fraction of relatively low-silica tephra on 6 January and 5 November 1990) suggest that the current eruptive period may continue to produce small explosions and that a small amount of magma may still be present within the conduit. The gas-release explosions occur without warning and pose a continuing hazard, especially in the crater area. An eruption as large or larger than that of 18 May 1980 (≈0.5 km3 dense-rock equivalent) probably will occur only if magma rises from an inferred deep (≥7 km), relative large (5–7 km3) reservoir. A conservative approach to hazard assessment is to assume that this deep magma is rich in volatiles and capable of erupting explosively to produce voluminous fall deposits and pyroclastic flows. Warning of such an eruption is expectable, however, because magma ascent would probably be accompanied by shallow seismicity that could be detected by the existing seismic-monitoring system. A future large-volume eruption (≥0.1 km3) is virtually certain; the eruptive history of the past 500 years indicates the probability of a large explosive eruption is at least 1% annually. Intervals between large eruptions at Mount St. Helens have varied widely; consequently, we cannot confidently forecast whether the next large eruption will be years decades, or farther in the future. However, we can forecast the types of hazards, and the areas that will be most affected by future large-volume eruptions, as well as hazards associated with the approaching end of the current eruptive period.

Mount St. Helens volcano: Recent and future behavior

Mount St. Helens volcano in southern Washington has erupted many times during the last 4000 years, usually after brief dormant periods. This behavior pattern. suggests that the volcano, last active in 1857, will erupt again-perhaps within the next few decades. Potential volcanic hazards of several kinds should be considered in planning for land use near the volcano.

Age of the last major scabland flood of the Columbia Plateau in eastern Washington

Abstract Pumice layers of set S from Mount St. Helens can be correlated with certain ash beds associated with young flood deposits of the channeled scabland. The correlation points to an age of about 13,000 14 C yr B.P. for the last major flood to have crossed the scabland. Until recently, the last major episode of flooding was thought to be closer to 20,000 yr B.P., an age inferred chiefly from the relation of the flood to glacial events of the northern Rocky Mountains. Several investigations within the last few years have suggested that the last major flood occurred well after 20,000 yr B.P. Tentative correlations of ash beds of the scabland with set S pumice layers, the relations of flood and glacial events along the northwestern margin of the Columbia Plateau, and a radiocarbon date from the Snake River drainage southeast of the plateau all indicate an age much younger than 20,000 yr. The postulated age of about 13,000 yr B.P. is further supported by a radiocarbon date in the Columbia River valley downstream from the scabland tract. Basal peat from a bog on the Portland delta of Bretz, which is a downvalley deposit of the last major scabland flood, has been dated as 13,080 ± 300 yr B.P. (W-3404).

Mount St. Helens eruptive behavior during the past 1,500 yr

During the past 1,500 yr Mount St. Helens, Washington, has repeatedly erupted dacite domes, tephra, and pyroclastic flows as well as andesite lava flows and tephra. Two periods of activity prior to 1980, each many decades long, were both initiated by eruptions of volatile-rich dacite which were followed by andesite, then by dacite. A third eruptive period was characterized by the eruption of volatile-poor dacite that formed a dome and minor pyroclastic flows. The prolonged duration of some previous eruptive periods suggests that the current activity could continue for many years. The volatile-rich dacite that has been erupted to date probably will be followed by gas-poor magma, but it cannot yet be predicted whether a more mafic magma will be extruded during the current eruptive period.

Recent Lahars from Mount St. Helens, Washington

Late Recent eruptions of Mount St. Helens volcano in the Cascade Range of southern Washington have caused numerous lahars; some extend more than 40 miles down valleys west of the volcano. These lahars typically consist of poorly sorted and unstratified detritus derived almost wholly from the volcano. The lahars and inter-bedded fluvial gravel commonly form valley fills; such a fill in the valley of the North Fork of the Toutle River contains at least three lahars. Lahars from Mount St. Helens are composed mainly of nonvesicular rock fragments; thus, their great distance of transport is attributed to mobility provided by water rather than by gas emitted from particles in the matrix. Near the volcano, some of the lahars contain charred wood, proving that they were hot and resulted directly from eruptions. Wood from within a lahar in the fill in the North Fork of the Toutle River valley has a radiocarbon age of about 2000 years. The lahar consists of material derived from a Mount St. Helens volcano that existed before the present cone was built; thus, the present cone must be less than 2000 yearsold. In addition, interpretation of soil profiles younger than the dated wood suggests that the modern cone may have been built within the last thousand Years.