Donald A. Sylvan

Ontologies, Problem Representation, and the Cuban Missile Crisis

“Problem representation” and “ontology” are introduced as concepts critical to understanding foreign policy decision making. The article explicates these concepts and their relationship and focuses on such issues of representation rather than veridical descriptions of reality, thereby shifting attention away from concern with misperception and toward attempting to understand how these representations are socially constructed and modified. It is argued that the conflict resolution process can be enhanced by inclusion of concerns with “problem representation” and “ontology” along with traditional interest in “option selection.” These concepts are then related to decision making in the cuban missile crisis. Two different ways of using new information on the crisis — and more generally understanding foreign policy decision making — are presented. The first is deemed an “option selection” perspective. A second approach expresses a theory of foreign policy decision making in a model of one important aspect of the Cuban missile crisis — the debate over whether Soviet missiles in Cuba were offensive. That model illustrates why focusing primarily on options or alternatives may obscure the most critical determinants of decision making. By focusing on ontologies and problem representations, the new model illustrates an approach to understanding and representing why some decision makers are predisposed to particular options over others.

Counterfactuals and the Cuban Missile Crisis

A rule-based computer model of John F. Kennedys decision making during the 1962 Cuban missile crisis is presented. The model is examined for empirical adequacy. The utility of models like this one for addressing counterfactual and policy questions is discussed, and substantive conclusions based on the model are reached. The most noteworthy of these is that a shorter perceived crisis time might well have led to the selection by the United States of more severe military options. Other conclusions deal with the implications of changes in Kennedys beliefs for option choices, with Kennedys low ranking of most nonmilitary options, and with the minimal chance of a passive U.S. response.

Consequences of Sharp Military Assistance Increases for International Conflict and Cooperation

Effects of sharp increases in military assistance on international conflict and cooperation on the part of recipient nations are investigated. Since traditional bivariate and multivariate statistical techniques are often conceptually inapplicable to this subject matter, a quasi-experimental design is used which relies on autoregressive moving average models and exponential smoothing forecasting mechanisms. Twenty-five annual observations, from 1946 through 1970, of 15 Asian nations serve as the data base. Key findings are: (1) sharp increases in military assistance tend to change decidedly the recipient nations international conflict and cooperative behavior; (2) in a substantial majority of cases examined, the direction of that behavior change is toward increased conflict and decreased cooperation; and (3) a two-year lag between military assistance and behavior change of recipient nations is statistically supported. The effects of increased capabilities as well as bureaucratic politics, habit, expectation, and prior deals are offered as possible reasons for these results. The findings seem to refute the argument that giving military aid to a nation not involved in a war will help strengthen that nation and thereby avoid future conflict.

Case-Based, Model-Based, and Explanation-Based Styles of Reasoning in Foreign Policy

This article uses two types of experiments to examine the kinds of reasoning people use when thinking about foreign policy. Case-based, explanation-based, and model-based reasoning are offered as an appropriate taxonomy of reasoning styles, and laboratory experiments are the vehicle for empirical analysis. The first experiment uses a thought checking methodology. When combining over all subjects and scenarios in that experiment, explanation-based reasoning emerges as dominant, with the other two occurring with roughly equal probability. Case-based reasoning comes in second for general life scenarios and model-based reasoning comes in second for the international politics scenarios. The dominant role of explanation-based reasoning becomes even stronger for more expert respondents (graduate students in political science), and is not significantly diminished for respondents trained in the case method of instruction. The predominance of explanation-based thoughts over case-based and model-based thoughts is replicated, and even accentuated, in a second experiment involving a protocol analysis of unconstrained thoughts. The results of both types of experiments indicate that scholars concentrating on decision making would be remiss to represent reasoning processes as exclusively case or model or even explanation based. Reasoning in the area of foreign policy seems to be slightly more explanation based, but exhibits characteristics of each of the three modes of reasoning.

Critically examining some common assumptions and sources of error in international relations forecasting

Both systematic and random forecasting errors are discussed in this paper. A variety of forecasting approaches employed in international relations are evaluated with respect to their ability to minimize systematic and random bias. One potential source of forecast inaccuracy with which the paper deals is the choice of assumptions. The statistical precariousness of some assumptions, the degree of policy manipulability and change which is assumed, and the degree of technological innovation which is assumed in a forecast are discussed. Population, resources, and food serve as subject matters of some of the forecasts which are examined.

Choosing appropriate techniques for socio-political forecasting

After defining scientific forecasting, the crucial role of assumptions in such forecasts is explicated. This is followed by a discussion of the representations upon which forecasting systems are based. Six variables are then introduced to capture differences in socio-political forecasting circumstances: level of detail, accuracy, agreement on problem representation, robustness-brittleness, number of variables and interdependencies, and disturbance. A categorization of forecasting approaches - expert based, Bayesian, extremal statistical, and rule based - is offered. These forecasting approaches are then cross-referenced with the forecasting circumstances to produce recommendations for choosing an appropriate forecasting technique in a given policy circumstance. Most examples in the article are drawn from the realm of foreign policy and international politics, and the cross-referencing section concentrates on foreign energy policy examples.

Planning Foreign Policy Systematically

An approach to planning foreign policy systematically is presented. It is seen as an appropriate planning aid in situations where some form of goals can be stated, the subject matter is “well understood,” and potential disturbances in the patterns of interrelationship between variables are identifiable. After placing this approach in the context of other planning and decision-making arguments and schemes, an example dealing with choosing a foreign assistance policy is offered to illustrate steps involved in mathematical planning. Those steps are goal setting and weighting, establishing normatively set constraints, relating variables, determining initial conditions, and numerical evaluation of alternative policies. In the foreign assistance example, computer simulation is employed to accomplish the final step.

Bridging the Gap: Theory and Practice in Foreign Policy. By Alexander L. George. Washington: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1993. 170p.

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