Donald K. Wedding

Time series forecasting by combining RBF networks, certainty factors, and the Box-Jenkins model

Abstract A method is described for using Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural networks to generate certainty factors along with normal output. When RBF output with low certainty factors values are discarded, the overall accuracy of the network is increased. In this paper, RBF networks are used in a time series application. The RBF neural networks are trained to generate both time series forecasts and certainty factors. Their output is then combined with the Univariant Box-Jenkins (UBJ) models to predict future values of data. This combination approach is shown to improve the overall reliability of time series forecasting. Three possible methods for combining the two forecasts into one hybrid forecast are discussed.

Certainty factors versus Parzen windows as reliability measures in RBF networks

Abstract A method is described for using Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural networks to generate a certainty factor reliability measure along with the networks normal output. The certainty factor approach is then compared with another technique for measuring RBF reliability, Parzen windows. Both methods are implemented into RBF networks, and the results of using each approach are compared. Advantages and disadvantages of each approach are discussed. Results indicate that certainty factors are easy to compute and good reliability measure.

Large-area full-color AC plasma display monitor

A large-area, full-color HDTV display having a diagonal of 40 to 60 inches, a video interface, and up to 256 levels of gray scale.

P-104: Positive Column Tubular PDP

Positive column gas discharge tubular PDP with increased luminous efficiency, higher sustain voltage capability and pre-discharge sustain priming. High speed addressing uses address priming. Independent sustain/address, row address and column data electrodes are separate from sustaining electrodes. The sharing of address electrodes between adjacent rows reduces row drivers by 50%.

Color AC plasma displays for high-definition systems

Large size, full color ac plasma displays with high level gray scale have been demonstrated with live TV video images and computer generated graphics. These memory panels employ a double-substrate high resolution barrier structure and are capable of very high speed operation with high luminosity and high contrast at wide viewing angles. At high sustain frequencies, the memory function is superior to that of monochrome AC-PDPs. The display monitors offer full multimedia capability and can be formulated for stereoscopic viewing. A comparison of the leading direct-view high definition display system (HDS) technologies will be made including both single and double substrate AC-PDPs, DC-PDPs, CRTs and TFT-LCDs. The technologies will be compared on the basis of optical, electrical, physical, and cost characteristics. A summary of the status and challenges facing each technology will be presented. Special emphasis will be given to the various approaches being pursued in the development of color AC-PDPs. A status report on the DARPA/Photonics Imaging color AC- PDP HDS program will be presented.

Beyond The Meter Display

In October of 1981, Photonics Technology Inc., Luckey, Ohio and Magnavox Electronic Sys-tems Company, Fort Wayne, Indiana introduced a tactical display terminal featuring the worlds largest, fully-populated, non-projected display: a one meter AC gas discharge (plasma) display panel with an active display area of 5.3 square feet, a resolution of over 400 light emitting picture elements (pixels) per square centimeter and a total of about 2,000,000 pixels. This display is directed to a U.S. military requirement existing for over a decade. Photonics is presently developing larger displays beyond the meter display up to 3 meters diagonal. High resolution displays with and without transparency. have also been developed. Multi-color displays (red, blue, white, green) with and without filters will be available by 1984. MicrospacerTM panels are presently available with less than 0.001% inoperative pixels, a total of less than 40 in a 2048 by 2048 display. The military display terminal of the 1980s will feature a non-projected, fully-populated, multi-color, flat display with less than 0.001% inoperative pixels, a resolution of 400 to 4000 pixels per square centimeter, and a diagonal of 0.5 to 3.0 meters.