Donald S. Burke

Multifactorial Index of Cardiac Risk in Noncardiac Surgical Procedures

To determine which preoperative factors might affect the development of cardiac complications after major noncardiac operations, we prospectively studied 1001 patients over 40 years of age. By multivariate discriminant analysis, we identified nine independent significant correlates of life-threatening and fatal cardiac complications: preoperative third heart sound or jugular venous distention; myocardial infarction in the preceding six months; more than five premature ventricular contractions per minute documented at any time before operation; rhythm other than sinus or presence of premature atrial contractions on preoperative electrocardiogram; age over 70 years; intraperitoneal, intrathoracic or aortic operation; emergency operation; important valvular aortic stenosis; and poor general medical condition. Patients could be separated into four classes of significantly different risk. Ten of the 19 postoperative cardiac fatalities occurred in the 18 patients at highest risk. If validated by prospective application, the multifactorial index may allow preoperative estimation of cardiac risk independent of direct surgical risk.

Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia

Highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza A viruses are now endemic in avian populations in Southeast Asia, and human cases continue to accumulate. Although currently incapable of sustained human-to-human transmission, H5N1 represents a serious pandemic threat owing to the risk of a mutation or reassortment generating a virus with increased transmissibility. Identifying public health interventions that might be able to halt a pandemic in its earliest stages is therefore a priority. Here we use a simulation model of influenza transmission in Southeast Asia to evaluate the potential effectiveness of targeted mass prophylactic use of antiviral drugs as a containment strategy. Other interventions aimed at reducing population contact rates are also examined as reinforcements to an antiviral-based containment policy. We show that elimination of a nascent pandemic may be feasible using a combination of geographically targeted prophylaxis and social distancing measures, if the basic reproduction number of the new virus is below 1.8. We predict that a stockpile of 3 million courses of antiviral drugs should be sufficient for elimination. Policy effectiveness depends critically on how quickly clinical cases are diagnosed and the speed with which antiviral drugs can be distributed.

Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic

Development of strategies for mitigating the severity of a new influenza pandemic is now a top global public health priority. Influenza prevention and containment strategies can be considered under the broad categories of antiviral, vaccine and non-pharmaceutical (case isolation, household quarantine, school or workplace closure, restrictions on travel) measures. Mathematical models are powerful tools for exploring this complex landscape of intervention strategies and quantifying the potential costs and benefits of different options. Here we use a large-scale epidemic simulation to examine intervention options should initial containment of a novel influenza outbreak fail, using Great Britain and the United States as examples. We find that border restrictions and/or internal travel restrictions are unlikely to delay spread by more than 2–3 weeks unless more than 99% effective. School closure during the peak of a pandemic can reduce peak attack rates by up to 40%, but has little impact on overall attack rates, whereas case isolation or household quarantine could have a significant impact, if feasible. Treatment of clinical cases can reduce transmission, but only if antivirals are given within a day of symptoms starting. Given enough drugs for 50% of the population, household-based prophylaxis coupled with reactive school closure could reduce clinical attack rates by 40–50%. More widespread prophylaxis would be even more logistically challenging but might reduce attack rates by over 75%. Vaccine stockpiled in advance of a pandemic could significantly reduce attack rates even if of low efficacy. Estimates of policy effectiveness will change if the characteristics of a future pandemic strain differ substantially from those seen in past pandemics.

Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States

Planning a response to an outbreak of a pandemic strain of influenza is a high public health priority. Three research groups using different individual-based, stochastic simulation models have examined the consequences of intervention strategies chosen in consultation with U.S. public health workers. The first goal is to simulate the effectiveness of a set of potentially feasible intervention strategies. Combinations called targeted layered containment (TLC) of influenza antiviral treatment and prophylaxis and nonpharmaceutical interventions of quarantine, isolation, school closure, community social distancing, and workplace social distancing are considered. The second goal is to examine the robustness of the results to model assumptions. The comparisons focus on a pandemic outbreak in a population similar to that of Chicago, with ≈8.6 million people. The simulations suggest that at the expected transmissibility of a pandemic strain, timely implementation of a combination of targeted household antiviral prophylaxis, and social distancing measures could substantially lower the illness attack rate before a highly efficacious vaccine could become available. Timely initiation of measures and school closure play important roles. Because of the current lack of data on which to base such models, further field research is recommended to learn more about the sources of transmission and the effectiveness of social distancing measures in reducing influenza transmission.

Disseminated Vaccinia in a Military Recruit with Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Disease

LIVE-VIRUS vaccines have been well recognized as a cause of severe complications when inadvertently administered to recipients with impaired immunologic function.1 The acquired immunodeficiency syn...

Protection against Japanese Encephalitis by Inactivated Vaccines

Encephalitis caused by Japanese encephalitis virus occurs in annual epidemics throughout Asia, making it the principal cause of epidemic viral encephalitis in the world. No currently available vaccine has demonstrated efficacy in preventing this disease in a controlled trial. We performed a placebo-controlled, blinded, randomized trial in a northern Thai province, with two doses of monovalent (Nakayama strain) or bivalent (Nakayama plus Beijing strains) inactivated, purified Japanese encephalitis vaccine made from whole virus derived from mouse brain. We examined the effect of these vaccines on the incidence and severity of Japanese encephalitis and dengue hemorrhagic fever, a disease caused by a closely related flavivirus. Between November 1984 and March 1985, 65,224 children received two doses of monovalent Japanese encephalitis vaccine (n = 21,628), bivalent Japanese encephalitis vaccine (n = 22,080), or tetanus toxoid placebo (n = 21,516), with only minor side effects. The cumulative attack rate for encephalitis due to Japanese encephalitis virus was 51 per 100,000 in the placebo group and 5 per 100,000 in each vaccine group. The efficacy in both vaccine groups combined was 91 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 70 to 97 percent). Attack rates for dengue hemorrhagic fever declined, but not significantly. The severity of cases of dengue was also reduced. We conclude that two doses of inactivated Japanese encephalitis vaccine, either monovalent or bivalent, protect against encephalitis due to Japanese encephalitis virus and may have a limited beneficial effect on the severity of dengue hemorrhagic fever.

Cross-Species Virus Transmission and the Emergence of New Epidemic Diseases

SUMMARY Host range is a viral property reflecting natural hosts that are infected either as part of a principal transmission cycle or, less commonly, as “spillover” infections into alternative hosts. Rarely, viruses gain the ability to spread efficiently within a new host that was not previously exposed or susceptible. These transfers involve either increased exposure or the acquisition of variations that allow them to overcome barriers to infection of the new hosts. In these cases, devastating outbreaks can result. Steps involved in transfers of viruses to new hosts include contact between the virus and the host, infection of an initial individual leading to amplification and an outbreak, and the generation within the original or new host of viral variants that have the ability to spread efficiently between individuals in populations of the new host. Here we review what is known about host switching leading to viral emergence from known examples, considering the evolutionary mechanisms, virus-host interactions, host range barriers to infection, and processes that allow efficient host-to-host transmission in the new host population.

Emergence of unique primate T-lymphotropic viruses among central African bushmeat hunters.

The human T-lymphotropic viruses (HTLVs) types 1 and 2 originated independently and are related to distinct lineages of simian T-lymphotropic viruses (STLV-1 and STLV-2, respectively). These facts, along with the finding that HTLV-1 diversity appears to have resulted from multiple cross-species transmissions of STLV-1, suggest that contact between humans and infected nonhuman primates (NHPs) may result in HTLV emergence. We investigated the diversity of HTLV among central Africans reporting contact with NHP blood and body fluids through hunting, butchering, and keeping primate pets. We show that this population is infected with a wide variety of HTLVs, including two previously unknown retroviruses: HTLV-4 is a member of a phylogenetic lineage that is distinct from all known HTLVs and STLVs; HTLV-3 falls within the phylogenetic diversity of STLV-3, a group not previously seen in humans. We also document human infection with multiple STLV-1-like viruses. These results demonstrate greater HTLV diversity than previously recognized and suggest that NHP exposure contributes to HTLV emergence. Our discovery of unique and divergent HTLVs has implications for HTLV diagnosis, blood screening, and potential disease development in infected persons. The findings also indicate that cross-species transmission is not the rate-limiting step in pandemic retrovirus emergence and suggest that it may be possible to predict and prevent disease emergence by surveillance of populations exposed to animal reservoirs and interventions to decrease risk factors, such as primate hunting.

Naturally acquired simian retrovirus infections in central African hunters

BACKGROUND Hunting and butchering of wild non-human primates infected with simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) is thought to have sparked the HIV pandemic. Although SIV and other primate retroviruses infect laboratory workers and zoo workers, zoonotic retrovirus transmission has not been documented in natural settings. We investigated zoonotic infection in individuals living in central Africa. METHODS We obtained behavioural data, plasma samples, and peripheral blood lymphocytes from individuals living in rural villages in Cameroon. We did serological testing, PCR, and sequence analysis to obtain evidence of retrovirus infection. FINDINGS Zoonotic infections with simian foamy virus (SFV), a retrovirus endemic in most Old World primates, were identified in people living in central African forests who reported direct contact with blood and body fluids of wild non-human primates. Ten (1%) of 1099 individuals had antibodies to SFV. Sequence analysis from these individuals revealed three geographically-independent human SFV infections, each of which was acquired from a distinct non-human primate lineage: De Brazzas guenon (Cercopithecus neglectus), mandrill (Mandrillus sphinx), and gorilla (Gorilla gorilla), two of which (De Brazzas guenon and mandrill) are naturally infected with SIV. INTERPRETATION Our findings show that retroviruses are actively crossing into human populations, and demonstrate that people in central Africa are currently infected with SFV. Contact with non-human primates, such as happens during hunting and butchering, can play a part in the emergence of human retroviruses and the reduction of primate bushmeat hunting has the potential to decrease the frequency of disease emergence.

Travelling waves in the occurrence of dengue haemorrhagic fever in Thailand

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne virus that infects 50–100 million people each year. Of these infections, 200,000–500,000 occur as the severe, life-threatening form of the disease, dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF). Large, unanticipated epidemics of DHF often overwhelm health systems. An understanding of the spatial–temporal pattern of DHF incidence would aid the allocation of resources to combat these epidemics. Here we examine the spatial–temporal dynamics of DHF incidence in a data set describing 850,000 infections occurring in 72 provinces of Thailand during the period 1983 to 1997. We use the method of empirical mode decomposition to show the existence of a spatial–temporal travelling wave in the incidence of DHF. We observe this wave in a three-year periodic component of variance, which is thought to reflect host–pathogen population dynamics. The wave emanates from Bangkok, the largest city in Thailand, moving radially at a speed of 148 km per month. This finding provides an important starting point for detecting and characterizing the key processes that contribute to the spatial–temporal dynamics of DHF in Thailand.