Donna Mitchell

A Monte Carlo analysis on the impact of climate change on future crop choice and water use in Uzbekistan

Central Asia is considered a hot spot for severe water stress. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), over the next century this region is expected to see a rise in temperatures and experience lower amounts of rainfall, creating a more arid climate. Regional agricultural policies have dominated water resource use. The impact of climate change coupled with market distorting economic policies, inefficient irrigation systems, and lack of water rights, could lead to social instability in the region. This analysis employs two downscaled climate projections and two Relative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (4.5 and 8.5) to simulate the impact of climate change on crop production, water use, and future crop allocations in the Khorezm region of Uzbekistan. Drought scenarios show drastic changes in crop productivity and producer profitability. If production quotas are removed, this region has the ability to become self-sufficient in wheat production, increasing its capacity to achieve food security.

Food Security and Conflict

Abstract Purpose The objective of this chapter is to discuss the pathways between climate, water, food, and conflict. Areas that are exhibiting food insecurity or have the potential to be food insecure are typically located in areas that experience poverty and government corruption. Higher rates of conflict occur in areas with lower caloric intake and poor nutrition. Methodology/approach We identify key pathways between these variables and discuss intervening factors and compound effects. Findings The pathways between water, food security, and conflict are complicated and are influenced by many intervening factors. A critical examination of the literature and an in-depth analysis of the reasons for conflict suggest that food insecurity is a multiplier, or facilitator, of the opportunities for and benefits from conflict. Practical implications To most effectively reduce the risks of conflict, policies must adequately and simultaneously address each of the four dimensions of food security – availability, stability, utilization, and access. Careful attention to alleviating food insecurity will help alleviate some of the underlying rationale for conflict.

Water management and climate change: dealing with uncertainties

Forecasting and Climate Change in Arid Cities, the authors state that electric utilities need to consider how potential changes in climate patterns will affect their peak loads. They create a medium-term model for predicting average hourly load by month for the Tucson Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The authors note that in light of climate change, utilities and society can benefit by minimizing inaccuracies in load predictions. Decision making based on more climate-sensitive forecasts will serve to reduce the water and carbon footprint of electric utilities. Their investment strategies could also be improved to benefit renewable energy technologies. The final paper in the book is by Schoengold, Shrestha and Eisworth who write about The Joint Impact of Drought Conditions and Media Coverage on the Colorado Rafting Industry. They use regression analysis of data from the Arkansas River to examine the impact of accompanying factors and in order to disentangle their influence. Their results show that reduced flows as well as very high flows usually decrease the number of whitewater rafting customers. Also media publicity and coverage of wildfires appears to have adverse impact on rafting tourism, while controlling for in-stream flows and weather. The book will be of direct interest to stakeholders and policymakers in the western US and indirectly to all water professionals around the world. The editors have pulled common themes out of the selected papers and highlighted how water’s increasing scarcity and variability due to climate change generate difficult tradeoffs. The situation developing therefrom will also generate new opportunities which could be beneficial to society. For decision makers, it is important to understand how climate influences individual water-users’ decisions and associated outcomes in order to maximize society’s net benefit. It is important to tailor society’s preparedness and adaptation activities to fit affected regions, communities, or water-user groups’ unique characteristics, strengths and weaknesses. The knowledge developed through reading the book can be very valuable and inform a range of management decisions as water-dependent resource sectors adapt to climate change.