Donna Spiegelman

Dietary Fiber, Glycemic Load, and Risk of NIDDM in Men

OBJECTIVE Intake of carbohydrates that provide a large glycemic response has been hypothesized to increase the risk of NIDDM, whereas dietary fiber is suspected to reduce incidence. These hypotheses have not been evaluated prospectively. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We examined the relationship between diet and risk of NIDDM in a cohort of 42,759 men without NIDDM or cardiovascular disease, who were 40–75 years of age in 1986. Diet was assessed at baseline by a validated semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. During 6-years of follow-up, 523 incident cases of NIDDM were documented. RESULTS The dietary glycemic index (an indicator of carbohydrates ability to raise blood glucose levels) was positively associated with risk of NIDDM after adjustment for age, BMI, smoking, physical activity, family history of diabetes, alcohol consumption, cereal fiber, and total energy intake. Comparing the highest and lowest quintiles, the relative risk (RR) of NIDDM was 1.37 (95% CI, 1.02–1.83, P trend = 0.03). Cereal fiber was inversely associated with risk of NIDDM (RR = 0.70; 95% CI, 0.51–0.96, P trend = 0.007; for > 8.1 g/day vs. < 3.2 g/day). The combination of a high glycemic load and a low cereal fiber intake further increased the risk of NIDDM (RR = 2.17, 95% CI, 1.04–4.54) when compared with a low glycemic load and high cereal fiber intake. CONCLUSIONS These findings support the hypothesis that diets with a high glycemic load and a low cereal fiber content increase risk of NIDDM in men. Further, they suggest that grains should be consumed in a minimally refined form to reduce the incidence of NIDDM.

Birth Weight and Adult Hypertension, Diabetes Mellitus, and Obesity in US Men

BACKGROUND Low birth weight has been associated with several chronic diseases in adults, including hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and obesity. Further study of these diseases in a large cohort with information on a wide variety of risk factors is essential to determine more precisely the risks associated with birth weight. METHODS AND RESULTS We examined the relation between birth weight and cumulative incidence of adult hypertension, incidence of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus, and prevalence of obesity in a cohort of 22,846 US men (Health Professionals Follow-up Study). Birth weights, medical histories, family histories, and other factors were collected by biennial mailed questionnaires. Logistic regression was used to examine the association between birth weight and these chronic adult diseases. Low birth weight was associated with an increased risk of hypertension and diabetes; high birth weight was associated with an increased risk of obesity. Compared with men in the referent birth weight category (7.0 to 8.4 lb), men who weighed < 5.5 lb had an age-adjusted odds ratio for hypertension of 1.26 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11 to 1.44) and for diabetes mellitus of 1.75 (95% CI, 1.21 to 2.54). There was no material change after controlling for adult body mass index and parental histories of hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Compared with men in the referent group, the age-adjusted odds ratio of being in the highest versus the lowest quintile of adult body mass index for men with birth weight > or = 10.0 lb was 2.08 (95% CI, 1.73 to 2.50). CONCLUSIONS These findings support the hypothesis that early life exposures, for which birth weight is a marker, are associated with several chronic diseases in adulthood.

Major types of dietary fat and risk of coronary heart disease: a pooled analysis of 11 cohort studies

BACKGROUND Saturated fatty acid (SFA) intake increases plasma LDL-cholesterol concentrations; therefore, intake should be reduced to prevent coronary heart disease (CHD). Lower habitual intakes of SFAs, however, require substitution of other macronutrients to maintain energy balance. OBJECTIVE We investigated associations between energy intake from monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFAs), polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), and carbohydrates and risk of CHD while assessing the potential effect-modifying role of sex and age. Using substitution models, our aim was to clarify whether energy from unsaturated fatty acids or carbohydrates should replace energy from SFAs to prevent CHD. DESIGN This was a follow-up study in which data from 11 American and European cohort studies were pooled. The outcome measure was incident CHD. RESULTS During 4-10 y of follow-up, 5249 coronary events and 2155 coronary deaths occurred among 344,696 persons. For a 5% lower energy intake from SFAs and a concomitant higher energy intake from PUFAs, there was a significant inverse association between PUFAs and risk of coronary events (hazard ratio: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.77, 0.97); the hazard ratio for coronary deaths was 0.74 (95% CI: 0.61, 0.89). For a 5% lower energy intake from SFAs and a concomitant higher energy intake from carbohydrates, there was a modest significant direct association between carbohydrates and coronary events (hazard ratio: 1.07; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.14); the hazard ratio for coronary deaths was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.82, 1.13). MUFA intake was not associated with CHD. No effect modification by sex or age was found. CONCLUSION The associations suggest that replacing SFAs with PUFAs rather than MUFAs or carbohydrates prevents CHD over a wide range of intakes.

Dietary fat and risk of coronary heart disease in men: cohort follow up study in the United States

Abstract Objective: To examine the association between fat intake and the incidence of coronary heart disease in men of middle age and older. Design: Cohort questionnaire study of men followed up for six years from 1986. Setting: The health professionals follow up study in the United States. Subjects: 43 757 health professionals aged 40 to 75 years free of diagnosed cardiovascular disease or diabetes in 1986. Main outcome measure: Incidence of acute myocardial infarction or coronary death. Results: During follow up 734 coronary events were documented, including 505 non-fatal myocardial infarctions and 229 deaths. After age and several coronary risk factors were controlled for significant positive associations were observed between intake of saturated fat and risk of coronary disease. For men in the top versus the lowest fifth of saturated fat intake (median = 14.8% v 5.7% of energy) the multivariate relative risk for myocardial infarction was 1.22 (95% confidence interval 0.96 to 1.56) and for fatal coronary heart disease was 2.21 (1.38 to 3.54). After ajustment for intake of fibre the risks were 0.96 (0.73 to 1.27) and 1.72 (1.01 to 2.90), respectively. Positive associations between intake of cholesterol and risk of coronary heart disease were similarly attenuated after adjustment for fibre intake. Intake of linolenic acid was inversely associated with risk of myocardial infarction; this association became significant only after adjustment for non-dietary risk factors and was strengthened after adjustment for total fat intake (relative risk 0.41 for a 1% increase in energy, P for trend <0.01). Conclusions: These data do not support the strong association between intake of saturated fat and risk of coronary heart disease suggested by international comparisons. They are compatible, however, with the hypotheses that saturated fat and cholesterol intakes affect the risk of coronary heart disease as predicted by their effects on blood cholesterol concentration. They also support a specific preventive effect of linolenic acid intake. Key messages Diets high in saturated fat and cholesterol are associated with an increased risk of coronary disease, but these adverse effects are at least in part explained by their low fibre content and associations with other risk factors Diets high in linolenic acid (N-3 fatty acid from plants) are associated with a reduced risk of coronary heart disease, independently of other dietary and non-dietary risk factors Uncertainty remains on the optimal amount of polyunsaturated fat in the diet for prevention of coronary heart disease Benefits of reducing intakes of saturated fat and cholesterol are likely to be modest unless accompanied by an increased consumption of foods rich in fibre

Cohort Studies of Fat Intake and the Risk of Breast Cancer — A Pooled Analysis

BACKGROUND Experiments in animals, international correlation comparisons, and case-control studies support an association between dietary fat intake and the incidence of breast cancer. Most cohort studies do not corroborate the association, but they have been criticized for involving small numbers of cases, homogeneous fat intake, and measurement errors in estimates of fat intake. METHODS We identified seven prospective studies in four countries that met specific criteria and analyzed the primary data in a standardized manner. Pooled estimates of the relation of fat intake to the risk of breast cancer were calculated, and data from study-specific validation studies were used to adjust the results for measurement error. RESULTS Information about 4980 cases from studies including 337,819 women was available. When women in the highest quintile of energy-adjusted total fat intake were compared with women in the lowest quintile, the multivariate pooled relative risk of breast cancer was 1.05 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.94 to 1.16). Relative risks for saturated, monounsaturated, and polyunsaturated fat and for cholesterol, considered individually, were also close to unity. There was little overall association between the percentage of energy intake from fat and the risk of breast cancer, even among women whose energy intake from fat was less than 20 percent. Correcting for error in the measurement of nutrient intake did not materially alter these findings. CONCLUSIONS We found no evidence of a positive association between total dietary fat intake and the risk of breast cancer. There was no reduction in risk even among women whose energy intake from fat was less than 20 percent of total energy intake. In the context of the Western lifestyle, lowering the total intake of fat in midlife is unlikely to reduce the risk of breast cancer substantially.

Variation in the incidence of uterine leiomyoma among premenopausal women by age and race

Objective To quantify the incidence of uterine leiomyoma confirmed by hysterectomy, ultrasound, or pelvic examination according to age and race among premenopausal women. Methods From September 1989 through May 1993, 95, 061 premenopausal nurses age 25–44 with intact uteri and no history of uterine leiomyoma were followed to determine incidence rates of uterine leiomyoma. The self-reported diagnosis was confirmed in 93% of the medical records obtained for a sample of cases. Using pooled logistic regression, we estimated relative risks (RRs) of uterine leiomyoma according to race and examined whether adjustment for other potential risk factors could explain the variation in the race-specific rates. Results During 327,065 women-years, 4181 new cases of uterine leiomyoma were reported. The incidence rates increased with age, and the age-standardized rates of ultrasound-or hysterectomy-confirmed diagnoses per 1000 woman-years were 8.9 among white women and 30.6 among black women. After further adjustment for marital status, body mass index, age at first birth, years since last birth, history of infertility, age at first oral contraceptive use, and current alcohol consumption, the rates among black women were significantly greater for diagnoses confirmed by ultrasound or hysterectomy (RR 3.25; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.71, compared with rates among white women. Women. We observed similar RRs when the cohort was restricted to participants who reported undergoing a screening physical examination within the 2 years before baseline. Conclusion A higher prevalence of known risk factors did not explain the excess rate of uterine leiomyoma among premenopausal black women.

Meta-Analysis for Linear and Nonlinear Dose-Response Relations: Examples, an Evaluation of Approximations, and Software

Two methods for point and interval estimation of relative risk for log-linear exposure-response relations in meta-analyses of published ordinal categorical exposure-response data have been proposed. The authors compared the results of a meta-analysis of published data using each of the 2 methods with the results that would be obtained if the primary data were available and investigated the circumstances under which the approximations required for valid use of each meta-analytic method break down. They then extended the methods to handle nonlinear exposure-response relations. In the present article, methods are illustrated using studies of the relation between alcohol consumption and colorectal and lung cancer risks from the ongoing Pooling Project of Prospective Studies of Diet and Cancer. In these examples, the differences between the results of a meta-analysis of summarized published data and the pooled analysis of the individual original data were small. However, incorrectly assuming no correlation between relative risk estimates for exposure categories from the same study gave biased confidence intervals for the trend and biased P values for the tests for nonlinearity and between-study heterogeneity when there was strong confounding by other model covariates. The authors illustrate the use of 2 publicly available user-friendly programs (Stata and SAS) to implement meta-analysis for dose-response data.

Prenatal risk factors for autism: comprehensive meta-analysis

BACKGROUND The aetiology of autism is unknown, although prenatal exposures have been the focus of epidemiological research for over 40 years. AIMS To provide the first quantitative review and meta-analysis of the association between maternal pregnancy complications and pregnancy-related factors and risk of autism. METHOD PubMed, Embase and PsycINFO databases were searched for epidemiological studies that examined the association between pregnancy-related factors and autism. Forty studies were eligible for inclusion in the meta-analysis. Summary effect estimates were calculated for factors examined in multiple studies. RESULTS Over 50 prenatal factors have been examined. The factors associated with autism risk in the meta-analysis were advanced parental age at birth, maternal prenatal medication use, bleeding, gestational diabetes, being first born v. third or later, and having a mother born abroad. The factors with the strongest evidence against a role in autism risk included previous fetal loss and maternal hypertension, proteinuria, pre-eclampsia and swelling. CONCLUSIONS There is insufficient evidence to implicate any one prenatal factor in autism aetiology, although there is some evidence to suggest that exposure to pregnancy complications may increase the risk.

Combined impact of lifestyle factors on mortality: prospective cohort study in US women

Objective To evaluate the impact of combinations of lifestyle factors on mortality in middle aged women. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting Nurses’ health study, United States. Participants 77 782 women aged 34 to 59 years and free from cardiovascular disease and cancer in 1980. Main outcome measure Relative risk of mortality during 24 years of follow-up in relation to five lifestyle factors (cigarette smoking, being overweight, taking little moderate to vigorous physical activity, no light to moderate alcohol intake, and low diet quality score). Results 8882 deaths were documented, including 1790 from cardiovascular disease and 4527 from cancer. Each lifestyle factor independently and significantly predicted mortality. Relative risks for five compared with zero lifestyle risk factors were 3.26 (95% confidence interval 2.45 to 4.34) for cancer mortality, 8.17 (4.96 to 13.47) for cardiovascular mortality, and 4.31 (3.51 to 5.31) for all cause mortality. A total of 28% (25% to 31%) of deaths during follow-up could be attributed to smoking and 55% (47% to 62%) to the combination of smoking, being overweight, lack of physical activity, and a low diet quality. Additionally considering alcohol intake did not substantially change this estimate. Conclusions These results indicate that adherence to lifestyle guidelines is associated with markedly lower mortality in middle aged women. Both efforts to eradicate cigarette smoking and those to stimulate regular physical activity and a healthy diet should be intensified.

Primary Prevention of Stroke by Healthy Lifestyle

Background— The combination of healthy lifestyle factors is associated with lower risk of coronary heart disease, diabetes, and total cardiovascular disease. Little is known about the impact of multiple lifestyle factors on the risk of stroke. Methods and Results— We conducted a prospective cohort study among 43 685 men from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study and 71 243 women from the Nurses’ Health Study. Diet and other lifestyle factors were updated from self-reported questionnaires. We defined a low-risk lifestyle as not smoking, a body mass index <25 kg/m2, ≥30 min/d of moderate activity, modest alcohol consumption (men, 5 to 30 g/d; women, 5 to 15 g/d), and scoring within the top 40% of a healthy diet score. We documented 1559 strokes (853 ischemic, 278 hemorrhagic) among women and 994 strokes (600 ischemic, 161 hemorrhagic) among men during follow-up. Women with all 5 low-risk factors had a relative risk of 0.21 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.12, 0.36) for total and 0.19 (95% CI, 0.09, 0.40) for ischemic stroke compared with women who had none of these factors. Among men, the relative risks were 0.31 (95% CI, 0.19, 0.53) for total and 0.20 (95% CI, 0.10, 0.42) for ischemic stroke for the same comparison. Among the women, 47% (95% CI, 18 to 69) of total and 54% (95% CI, 15 to 78%) of ischemic stroke cases were attributable to lack of adherence to a low-risk lifestyle; among the men, 35% (95% CI, 7 to 58) of total and 52% (95% CI, 19 to 75) of ischemic stroke may have been prevented. Conclusion— A low-risk lifestyle that is associated with a reduced risk of multiple chronic diseases also may be beneficial in the prevention of stroke, especially ischemic stroke.