Dora L. Costa

Power Couples: Changes in the Locational Choice of the College Educated, 1940–1990

College educated couples are increasingly located in large metropolitan areas. These areas were home to 32 percent of all college educated couples in 1940, 39 percent in 1970, and 50 percent in 1990. We investigate whether this trend can be explained by increasing urbanization of the college educated or the growth of dual career households and the resulting severity of the colocation problem. We argue that the latter explanation is the primary one. Smaller cities may therefore experience reduced inflows of human capital relative to the past and thus become poorer.

A theory of technophysio evolution, with some implications for forecasting population, health care costs, and pension costs

We argue that over the past 300 years human physiology has been undergoing profound environmentally induced changes made possible by numerous advances in technology. These changes, which we call technophysio evolution, increased body size by over 50%, and greatly improved the robustness and capacity of vital organ systems. Because technophysio evolution is still ongoing, it is relevant to forecasts of longevity and morbidity and, therefore, to forecasts of the size of the elderly population and pension and health care costs.

Understanding the American Decline in Social Capital, 1952 -1998

Social capital describes both the relations across and within families. Loury(1977) emphasized the importance of social capital within the home for the de-velopment of children. These relations between parents and children and organ-izations and individuals are valuable because they increase trust between indi-viduals and allow them to work together to achieve common economic andpolitical goals. Tocqueville (1840/1981, pp.137–141) argued that democraticcountries that lost the habit of association would find their very civilizations inperil because they had no other substitutes for reciprocal action. His contentionthat voluntary associations help democracies function is supported by a largebody of empirical research. For example, Brady, Verba, and Schlozman (1995)argue that skills in political participation are acquired in such non-political in-

Changes in the Value of Life: 1940-1980

We present the first nationwide value of life estimates for the United States at more than one point in time. Our estimates are for every ten years between 1940 and 1980, a period when declines in fatal accident rates were historically unprecedented. Our estimated elasticity of value of life with respect to per capita GNP is 1.5 to 1.7. We illustrate the importance of rising value of life for policy evaluation by examining the benefits of improved longevity since 1900. Our estimated elasticity implies that the current marginal increase in longevity is more valuable than the large increase in the first half of the twentieth century.

Changing chronic disease rates and longterm declines in functional limitation among older men

Functional limitation (difficulty walking, difficulty bending, paralysis, blindness in at least one eye, or deafness in at least one ear) in the United States fell at an average annual rate of 0.6% among men aged 50 to 74 from the early twentieth century to the early 1990s. Twenty-four percent of this decline is attributable to reductions in the debilitating effects of chronic conditions, 37% is attributable to reduced rates of chronic diseases, and the remainder is unexplained. The findings have implications for theories of the impact of declining mortality rates on the health of elderly people.

The Wage and the Length of the Work Day: From the 1890s to 1991

I investigate how the relationship between the wage and the length of the work day has changed since the 1890s among prime‐aged men and women. I find that across wage deciles, within wage deciles, and within industry and occupation groups, the most highly paid worked fewer hours than the lowest paid in the 1890s but that by 1973 differences in hours worked were small and by 1991 the highest paid worked the longest day. I examine several explanations for the compression in the length of the work day and investigate the implications of hours inequality for earnings inequality.

Estimating Real Income in the United States from 1888 to 1994: Correcting CPI Bias Using Engel Curves

This paper provides the first estimates of overall CPI bias prior to the 1970s and new estimates of bias since the 1970s. It finds that annual CPI bias was −0.1 percent between 1888 and 1919 and rose to 0.7 percent between 1919 and 1935. Annual CPI bias was 0.4 percent in the 1960s and then rose to 2.7 percent between 1972 and 1982 before falling to 0.6 percent between 1982 and 1994. The findings imply that we have underestimated growth rates in true income in the 1920s and 1930s and in the 1970s.

A House of Her Own: Old Age Assistance and the Living Arrangements of Older Nonmarried Women

I show that the trend towards single households among older nonmarried women, the majority of whom were widows, has been ongoing only since 1940 and investigate the factors that fostered the rise in separate living quarters since mid-century by examining the impact of Old Age Assistance on living arrangements in 1940 and 1950. I find that Old Age Assistance substantially increased demand for separate living quarters, but that demand depended upon the rules of the program, in particular whether children were held legally responsible for the care of their aged parents. I argue that almost half of the decline in the fraction of older nonmarried women living with relatives from 1950 to 1990 can be attributed to rising Social Security benefits and expanded eligibility and to the fact that Social Security benefits were given with no strings attached.

The Measure of Man and Older Age Mortality: Evidence from the Gould Sample

This paper documents differences in body size between white, black, and Indian mid-nineteenth century American men and investigates the socioeconomic and demographic determinants of frame size using a unique data set of Civil War soldiers. It finds that over time men have grown taller and heavier and have relatively less abdominal fat. Abdominal fat in young adulthood was an excellent predictor of older age mortality from ischemic heart disease or stroke. Changes in frame size explain roughly three-fifths of the mortality decline among white men between 1915 and 1988 and predict even sharper declines in older age mortality between 1988 and 2022.

Displacing the Family: Union Army Pensions and Elderly Living Arrangements

I investigate the factors that fostered the rise in separate living quarters for the aged prior to Social Security by estimating the income effect of the first major pension program in the United States, that covering Union Army veterans. I find that income substantially increased demand for separate living arrangements, suggesting that prior to 1940 rising incomes were the most important factor enabling the elderly to live alone. Comparisons with recent studies imply that income no longer plays as large a role, perhaps because income levels are now higher and independent living is both less expensive and more attractive.