Doris Chou

Global causes of maternal death: a WHO systematic analysis

BACKGROUND Data for the causes of maternal deaths are needed to inform policies to improve maternal health. We developed and analysed global, regional, and subregional estimates of the causes of maternal death during 2003-09, with a novel method, updating the previous WHO systematic review. METHODS We searched specialised and general bibliographic databases for articles published between between Jan 1, 2003, and Dec 31, 2012, for research data, with no language restrictions, and the WHO mortality database for vital registration data. On the basis of prespecified inclusion criteria, we analysed causes of maternal death from datasets. We aggregated country level estimates to report estimates of causes of death by Millennium Development Goal regions and worldwide, for main and subcauses of death categories with a Bayesian hierarchical model. FINDINGS We identified 23 eligible studies (published 2003-12). We included 417 datasets from 115 countries comprising 60 799 deaths in the analysis. About 73% (1 771 000 of 2 443 000) of all maternal deaths between 2003 and 2009 were due to direct obstetric causes and deaths due to indirect causes accounted for 27·5% (672 000, 95% UI 19·7-37·5) of all deaths. Haemorrhage accounted for 27·1% (661 000, 19·9-36·2), hypertensive disorders 14·0% (343 000, 11·1-17·4), and sepsis 10·7% (261 000, 5·9-18·6) of maternal deaths. The rest of deaths were due to abortion (7·9% [193 000], 4·7-13·2), embolism (3·2% [78 000], 1·8-5·5), and all other direct causes of death (9·6% [235 000], 6·5-14·3). Regional estimates varied substantially. INTERPRETATION Between 2003 and 2009, haemorrhage, hypertensive disorders, and sepsis were responsible for more than half of maternal deaths worldwide. More than a quarter of deaths were attributable to indirect causes. These analyses should inform the prioritisation of health policies, programmes, and funding to reduce maternal deaths at regional and global levels. Further efforts are needed to improve the availability and quality of data related to maternal mortality.

Global, regional, and national levels and trends in maternal mortality between 1990 and 2015, with scenario-based projections to 2030: a systematic analysis by the UN Maternal Mortality Estimation Inter-Agency Group

Summary Background Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 5 calls for a reduction of 75% in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) between 1990 and 2015. We estimated levels and trends in maternal mortality for 183 countries to assess progress made. Based on MMR estimates for 2015, we constructed scenario-based projections to highlight the accelerations needed to accomplish the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) global target of less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births globally by 2030. Methods We updated the open access UN Maternal Mortality Estimation Inter-agency Group (MMEIG) database. Based upon nationally-representative data for 171 countries, we generated estimates of maternal mortality and related indicators with uncertainty intervals using a Bayesian model, which extends and refines the previous UN MMEIG estimation approach. The model combines the rate of change implied by a multilevel regression model with a time series model to capture data-driven changes in country-specific MMRs, and includes a data model to adjust for systematic and random errors associated with different data sources. Results The global MMR declined from 385 deaths per 100,000 live births (80% uncertainty interval ranges from 359 to 427) in 1990 to 216 (207 to 249) in 2015, corresponding to a relative decline of 43.9% (34.0 to 48.7) during the 25-year period, with 303,000 (291,000 to 349,000) maternal deaths globally in 2015. Regional progress in reducing the MMR since 1990 ranged from an annual rate of reduction of 1.8% (0 to 3.1) in the Caribbean to 5.0% (4.0 to 6.0) for Eastern Asia. Regional MMRs for 2015 range from 12 (11 to 14) for developed regions to 546 (511 to 652) for sub-Saharan Africa. Accelerated progress will be needed to achieve the SDG goal; countries will need to reduce their MMRs at an annual rate of reduction of at least 7.5%. Interpretation Despite global progress in reducing maternal mortality, immediate action is required to begin making progress towards the ambitious SDG 2030 target, and ultimately eliminating preventable maternal mortality. While the rates of reduction that are required to achieve country-specific SDG targets are ambitious for the great majority of high mortality countries, the experience and rates of change between 2000 and 2010 in selected countries–those with concerted efforts to reduce the MMR- provide inspiration as well as guidance on how to accomplish the acceleration necessary to substantially reduce preventable maternal deaths. Funding Funding from grant R-155-000-146-112 from the National University of Singapore supported the research by LA and SZ. AG is the recipient of a National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, grant # T32-HD007275. Funding also provided by USAID and HRP (the UNDP/UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction).

Global and regional estimates of preeclampsia and eclampsia: a systematic review

Reduction of maternal mortality is a target within the Millennium Development Goals. Data on the incidence of preeclampsia and eclampsia, one of the main causes of maternal deaths, are required at both national and regional levels to inform policies. We conducted a systematic review of the incidence of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) with the objective of evaluating its magnitude globally and in different regions and settings. We selected studies using pre-specified criteria, recorded database characteristics and assessed methodological quality of the eligible studies reporting incidence of any HDP during the period 2002-2010. A logistic model was then developed to estimate the global and regional incidence of HDP using pre-specified predictor variables where empiric data were not available. We found 129 studies meeting the inclusion criteria, from which 74 reports with 78 datasets reporting HDP were analysed. This represents nearly 39 million women from 40 countries. When the model was applied, the overall estimates are 4.6% (95% uncertainty range 2.7-8.2), and 1.4% (95% uncertainty range 1.0-2.0) of all deliveries for preeclampsia and eclampsia respectively, with a wide variation across regions. The figures we obtained give a general idea of the magnitude of the problem and suggest that some regional variations might exist. The absence of data in many countries is of concern, however, and efforts should be made to implement data collection and reporting for substantial statistics. The implementation of large scale surveys conducted during a short period of time could provide more reliable and up-to-date estimations to inform policy.

The prevalence of maternal near miss: a systematic review

Please cite this paper as: Tunçalp Ö, Hindin MJ, Souza JP, Chou D, Say L. The prevalence of maternal near miss: a systematic review. BJOG 2012;119:653–661.

Preterm birth-associated neurodevelopmental impairment estimates at regional and global levels for 2010.

Background:In 2010, there were an estimated 15 million preterm births worldwide (<37 wk gestation). Survivors are at risk of adverse outcomes, and burden estimation at global and regional levels is critical for priority setting.Methods:Systematic reviews and meta-analyses were undertaken to estimate the risk of long-term neurodevelopmental impairment for surviving preterm babies according to the level of care. A compartmental model was used to estimate the number of impaired postneonatal survivors following preterm birth in 2010. A separate model (DisMod-MR) was used to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs) for the global burden of disease 2010 study. Disability adjusted life years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of YLDs and years of life lost (YLLs).Results:In 2010, there were an estimated 13 million preterm births who survived beyond the first month. Of these, 345,000 (2.7%, uncertainty range: 269,000–420,000) were estimated to have moderate or severe neurodevelopmental impairment, and a further 567,000 (4.4%, (445,000–732,000)) were estimated to have mild neurodevelopmental impairment. Many more have specific learning or behavioral impairments or reduced physical or mental health. Fewest data are available where the burden is heaviest. Preterm birth was responsible for 77 million DALYs, 3.1% of the global total, of which only 3 million were YLDs.Conclusion:Most preterm births (>90%) survive without neurodevelopmental impairment. Developing effective means of prevention of preterm birth should be a longer term priority, but major burden reduction could be made immediately with improved coverage and quality of care. Improved newborn care would reduce mortality, especially in low-income countries and is likely to reduce impairment in survivors, particularly in middle-income settings.

Revising the WHO verbal autopsy instrument to facilitate routine cause-of-death monitoring

Objective Verbal autopsy (VA) is a systematic approach for determining causes of death (CoD) in populations without routine medical certification. It has mainly been used in research contexts and involved relatively lengthy interviews. Our objective here is to describe the process used to shorten, simplify, and standardise the VA process to make it feasible for application on a larger scale such as in routine civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems. Methods A literature review of existing VA instruments was undertaken. The World Health Organization (WHO) then facilitated an international consultation process to review experiences with existing VA instruments, including those from WHO, the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and their Health in Developing Countries (INDEPTH) Network, InterVA, and the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC). In an expert meeting, consideration was given to formulating a workable VA CoD list [with mapping to the International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) CoD] and to the viability and utility of existing VA interview questions, with a view to undertaking systematic simplification. Findings A revised VA CoD list was compiled enabling mapping of all ICD-10 CoD onto 62 VA cause categories, chosen on the grounds of public health significance as well as potential for ascertainment from VA. A set of 221 indicators for inclusion in the revised VA instrument was developed on the basis of accumulated experience, with appropriate skip patterns for various population sub-groups. The duration of a VA interview was reduced by about 40% with this new approach. Conclusions The revised VA instrument resulting from this consultation process is presented here as a means of making it available for widespread use and evaluation. It is envisaged that this will be used in conjunction with automated models for assigning CoD from VA data, rather than involving physicians.Objective Verbal autopsy (VA) is a systematic approach for determining causes of death (CoD) in populations without routine medical certification. It has mainly been used in research contexts and involved relatively lengthy interviews. Our objective here is to describe the process used to shorten, simplify, and standardise the VA process to make it feasible for application on a larger scale such as in routine civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems. Methods A literature review of existing VA instruments was undertaken. The World Health Organization (WHO) then facilitated an international consultation process to review experiences with existing VA instruments, including those from WHO, the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and their Health in Developing Countries (INDEPTH) Network, InterVA, and the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC). In an expert meeting, consideration was given to formulating a workable VA CoD list [with mapping to the International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) CoD] and to the viability and utility of existing VA interview questions, with a view to undertaking systematic simplification. Findings A revised VA CoD list was compiled enabling mapping of all ICD-10 CoD onto 62 VA cause categories, chosen on the grounds of public health significance as well as potential for ascertainment from VA. A set of 221 indicators for inclusion in the revised VA instrument was developed on the basis of accumulated experience, with appropriate skip patterns for various population sub-groups. The duration of a VA interview was reduced by about 40% with this new approach. Conclusions The revised VA instrument resulting from this consultation process is presented here as a means of making it available for widespread use and evaluation. It is envisaged that this will be used in conjunction with automated models for assigning CoD from VA data, rather than involving physicians.

Diversity and divergence: the dynamic burden of poor maternal health

Maternal health is a big issue and is central to sustainable development. Each year, about 210 million women become pregnant and about 140 million newborn babies are delivered-the sheer scale of maternal health alone makes maternal well being and survival vital concerns. In this Series paper, we adopt primarily a numerical lens to illuminate patterns and trends in outcomes, but recognise that understanding of poor maternal health also warrants other perspectives, such as human rights. Our use of the best available evidence highlights the dynamic burden of maternal health problems. Increased diversity in the magnitude and causes of maternal mortality and morbidity between and within populations presents a major challenge to policies and programmes aiming to match varying needs with diverse types of care across different settings. This diversity, in turn, contributes to a widening gap or differences in levels of maternal mortality, seen most acutely in vulnerable populations, predominantly in sub-Saharan Africa. Strong political and technical commitment to improve equity-sensitive information systems is required to monitor the gap in maternal mortality, and robust research is needed to elucidate major interactions between the broad range of health problems. Diversity and divergence are defining characteristics of poor maternal health in the 21st century. Progress on this issue will be an ultimate judge of sustainable development.

Ending preventable maternal and newborn mortality and stillbirths

Doris Chou and colleagues discuss the strategic priorities needed to prevent maternal and newborn deaths and stillbirths and promote maternal and newborn health and wellbeing

Understanding Global Trends in Maternal Mortality

CONTEXT Despite the fact that most maternal deaths are preventable, maternal mortality remains high in many developing countries. Target A of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 5 calls for a three-quarters reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) between 1990 and 2015. METHODS We derived estimates of maternal mortality for 172 countries over the period 1990-2008. Trends in maternal mortality were estimated either directly from vital registration data or from a hierarchical or multilevel model, depending on the data available for a particular country. RESULTS The annual number of maternal deaths worldwide declined by 34% between 1990 and 2008, from approximately 546,000 to 358,000 deaths. The estimated MMR for the world as a whole also declined by 34% over this period, falling from 400 to 260 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births. Between 1990 and 2008, the majority of the global burden of maternal deaths shifted from Asia to Sub-Saharan Africa. Differential trends in fertility, the HIV/AIDS epidemic and access to reproductive health are associated with the shift in the burden of maternal deaths from Asia to Sub-Saharan Africa. CONCLUSIONS Although the estimated annual rate of decline in the global MMR in 1990-2008 (2.3%) fell short of the level needed to meet the MDG 5 target, it was much faster than had been thought previously. Targeted efforts to improve access to quality maternal health care, as well as efforts to decrease unintended pregnancies through family planning, are necessary to further reduce the global burden of maternal mortality.

Reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health: key messages from Disease Control Priorities 3rd Edition

As part of Disease Control Priorities 3rd Edition, the World Bank will publish a volume on Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health that identifies essential cost-effective health interventions that can be scaled up to reduce maternal, newborn, and child deaths, and stillbirths. This Review summarises the volumes key findings and estimates the effect and cost of expanded implementation of these interventions. Recognising that a continuum of care from the adolescent girl, woman, or mother to child is needed, the volume includes details of preventive and therapeutic health interventions in integrated packages: Maternal and Newborn Health and Child Health (along with folic acid supplementation, a key reproductive health intervention). Scaling up all interventions in these packages from coverage in 2015 to hypothetically immediately achieve 90% coverage would avert 149 000 maternal deaths, 849 000 stillbirths, 1 498 000 neonatal deaths, and 1 515 000 additional child deaths. In alternative calculations that consider only the effects of reducing the number of pregnancies by provision of contraceptive services as part of a Reproductive Health package, meeting 90% of the unmet need for contraception would reduce global births by almost 28 million and consequently avert deaths that could have occurred at 2015 rates of fertility and mortality. Thus, 67 000 maternal deaths, 440 000 neonatal deaths, 473 000 child deaths, and 564 000 stillbirths could be averted from avoided pregnancies. Particularly effective interventions in the Maternal and Newborn Health and Child Health packages would be management of labour and delivery, care of preterm births, and treatment of serious infectious diseases and acute malnutrition. Nearly all of these essential interventions can be delivered by health workers in the community or in primary health centres, which can increase population access to needed services. The annual incremental cost of immediately scaling up these essential interventions would be US