Doug Easton

Interim analysis of the incidence of breast cancer in the Royal Marsden Hospital tamoxifen randomised chemoprevention trial

BACKGROUND Tamoxifen, a drug with antioestrogenic effects, is predicted to prevent the occurrence of breast cancer. We have undertaken a trial of tamoxifen in healthy women who are at increased risk of breast cancer because of family history. We report a planned interim analysis. METHODS Between October, 1986, and April, 1996, we accrued 2494 healthy women aged between 30 and 70 with a family history of breast cancer. They have been randomised (double blind) to receive tamoxifen 20 mg per day orally or placebo for up to 8 years. Follow-up included clinical assessment, annual mammography, and assessment of toxicity and compliance. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of breast cancer, which was analysed on an intention-to-treat basis with a survival curve. FINDINGS With a median follow-up of 70 months, 2471 women (tamoxifen 1238, placebo 1233) were suitable for analysis. The groups were evenly matched at baseline, and compliance was good. The overall frequency of breast cancer is the same for women on tamoxifen or placebo (tamoxifen 34, placebo 36, relative risk 1.06 [95% CI 0.7-1.7], p=0.8). Participants who were already on hormone-replacement therapy when they entered the study had an increased risk of breast cancer compared with non-users. Those participants who started such therapy while on trial had a significantly reduced risk. The safety profile of tamoxifen was as expected. INTERPRETATION We have been unable to show any effect of tamoxifen on breast-cancer incidence in healthy women, contrary to the report from the NSABP-P1 study showing a 45% reduction in healthy women given tamoxifen versus placebo. Differences in the study populations for the two trials may underlie these conflicting findings: eligibility in our trial was based predominantly on a strong family history of breast cancer whereas in the NSABP trial was mostly based on non-genetic risk factors. The importance of oestrogen promotion may vary between such populations.

Cancer risks in two large breast cancer families linked to BRCA2 on chromosome 13q12-13.

The penetrance of the BRCA2 gene on chromosome 13q12-13 has been estimated in two large, systematically ascertained, linked families, by use of a maximum-likelihood method to incorporate both cancer-incidence data and 13q marker typings in the families. The cumulative risk of breast cancer in female gene carriers was estimated to be 59.8% by age 50 years (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 25.9%-78.5%) and 79.5% by age 70 years (95% CI 28.9%-97.5%). The cumulative risk of breast cancer in male carriers was estimated to be 6.3% (95% CI 1.4%-25.6%) by age 70 years. There was no evidence of any risk difference between the two families. These results indicate that the lifetime breast cancer risk in BRCA2 carriers, for at least a subset of mutations, is comparable to that for BRCA1. A significant excess of ovarian cancer in gene carriers was observed (relative risk 17.69, based on three cases), but the absolute risk of ovarian cancer was less than that reported for BRCA1. Significant excesses of laryngeal cancer (relative risk 7.67, based on two possible carriers) and prostate cancer (relative risk 2.89, based on five possible carriers) were also observed. One case of ocular melanoma, as well as a second eye cancer of unspecified histology, occurred in obligate gene carriers.

Specific morphological features predictive for the basal phenotype in grade 3 invasive ductal carcinoma of breast

Aims : Cytokeratin (CK) 14, a myoepithelial marker, is also expressed in a proportion of breast carcinomas. There is evidence that these tumours show a differing metastatic pattern and clinical outcome from other invasive ductal carcinomas (IDCs) and may need different management. Currently, they are not identified in routine practice and no morphological guidelines exist to aid their identification. The aim of this study was to analyse the histological features of CK14+ IDC.

The BOADICEA model of genetic susceptibility to breast and ovarian cancer

Several genes conferring susceptibility to breast and ovarian cancer, notably BRCA1 and BRCA2, have been identified. The majority of the familial aggregation of breast cancer is, however, not explained by these genes. We have previously derived, using segregation analysis, a susceptibility model (BOADICEA, Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm) in which susceptibility to these genes is explained by mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 together with a polygenic component reflecting the joint multiplicative effect of multiple genes of small effect on breast cancer risk. Here, we consider the predictions made by this model. The overall familial risks of breast cancer predicted by this model are close to those observed in epidemiological studies. The predicted prevalences of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations among unselected cases of breast and ovarian cancer are also consistent with observations from population-based studies. These predictions are closer to the observed values than those obtained using the Claus model and BRCAPRO. The predicted mutation probabilities and cancer risks in individuals with a family history (FH) can differ markedly from those predicted by other models. We conclude that this model provides a rational basis for risk assessment in individuals with a FH of breast or ovarian cancer.

Two Percent of Men with Early-Onset Prostate Cancer Harbor Germline Mutations in the BRCA2 Gene

Studies of families with breast cancer have indicated that male carriers of BRCA2 mutations are at increased risk of prostate cancer, particularly at an early age. To evaluate the contribution of BRCA2 mutations to early-onset prostate cancer, we screened the complete coding sequence of BRCA2 for germline mutations, in 263 men with diagnoses of prostate cancer who were </=55 years of age. Protein-truncating mutations were found in six men (2.3%; 95% confidence interval 0.8%-5.0%), and all of these mutations were clustered outside the ovarian-cancer cluster region. The relative risk of developing prostate cancer by age 56 years from a deleterious germline BRCA2 mutation was 23-fold. Four of the patients with mutations did not have a family history of breast or ovarian cancer. Twenty-two variants of uncertain significance were also identified. These results confirm that BRCA2 is a high-risk prostate-cancer-susceptibility gene and have potential implications for the management of early-onset prostate cancer, in both patients and their relatives.

Contribution of BRCA1 mutations to ovarian cancer.

BACKGROUND Inherited mutations in the BRCA1 gene confer a high risk of breast and ovarian cancer in some families. To determine the contribution of BRCA1 mutations to ovarian cancer in the general population, we analyzed DNA samples from a consecutive series of women with ovarian cancer seen at one center. METHODS We studied 374 women who received a diagnosis of epithelial ovarian cancer before the age of 70 years and were treated at the Royal Marsden Hospital between July 1993 and September 1995. Genomic DNA was analyzed by multiplex heteroduplex analysis. Variants were further identified by sequencing. RESULTS Probable germ-line BRCA1 mutations were identified in 13 of the 374 women (3 percent; 95 percent confidence interval, 2 to 6 percent). Six of the variants have not been described previously. Of the 13 mutations, 12 are predicted to result in a truncated protein product. An additional variant results in an in-frame deletion just outside the putative zinc-finger domain. Nine of the 12 women with truncating mutations had family histories of breast or ovarian cancer or both. CONCLUSIONS Assuming that our method has a sensitivity of 70 percent, mutations in BRCA1 occur in approximately 5 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 3 to 8 percent) of women in whom ovarian cancer is diagnosed before the age of 70 years.

A systematic review and meta‐analysis of family history and risk of ovarian cancer

Objective To estimate the relative risk and lifetime risk of ovarian cancer in women with various categories of family history.

Androgen receptor polymorphisms: Association with prostate cancer risk, relapse and overall survival

Several reports have suggested that one or both of the trinucleotide repeat polymorphisms in the human androgen receptor (hAR) gene, (CAG)n coding for polyglutamine and (GGC)ncoding for polyglycine, may be associated with prostate cancer risk; but no study has investigated their association with disease progression. We present here a study of both hAR trinucleotide repeat polymorphisms not only as they relate to the initial diagnosis but also as they are associated with disease progression after therapy. Lymphocyte DNA samples from 178 British Caucasian prostate cancer patients and 195 control individuals were genotyped by PCR for the (CAG)n and (GGC)n polymorphisms in hAR. Univariate Cox proportional hazard analysis indicated that stage, grade and GGC repeat length were individually significant factors associated with disease‐free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). The relative risk (RR) of relapse for men with more than 16 GGC repeats was 1.74 (95% CI 1.08–2.79) and of dying from any cause, 1.98 (1.13–3.45). Adjusting for stage and grade, GGC effects remained but were not significant (RRDFS= 1.60, p = 0.052; RROS= 1.65, p = 0.088). The greatest effects were in stage T1‐T2 (RRDFS= 3.56, 95% CI 1.13–11.21) and grade 1 (RRDFS= 6.47, 95% CI 0.57–72.8) tumours. No differences between patient and control allele distributions were found by odds‐ratio analysis, nor were trends with stage or grade evident in the proportion of short CAG alleles. Non‐significant trends with stage and grade were found in the proportion of short GGC alleles. The (GGC)n polymorphism in this population is a significant predictor of disease outcome. Since the (GGC)n effect is strongest in early‐stage tumours, this marker may help forecast aggressive behaviour and could be used to identify those patients meriting more radical treatment. Int. J. Cancer (Pred. Oncol.) 84:458–465, 1999.

Predicting the likelihood of carrying a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation: validation of BOADICEA, BRCAPRO, IBIS, Myriad and the Manchester scoring system using data from UK genetics clinics.

Objectives: Genetic testing for the breast and ovarian cancer susceptibility genes BRCA1 and BRCA2 has important implications for the clinical management of people found to carry a mutation. However, genetic testing is expensive and may be associated with adverse psychosocial effects. To provide a cost-efficient and clinically appropriate genetic counselling service, genetic testing should be targeted at those individuals most likely to carry pathogenic mutations. Several algorithms that predict the likelihood of carrying a BRCA1 or a BRCA2 mutation are currently used in clinical practice to identify such individuals. Design: We evaluated the performance of the carrier prediction algorithms BOADICEA, BRCAPRO, IBIS, the Manchester scoring system and Myriad tables, using 1934 families seen in cancer genetics clinics in the UK in whom an index patient had been screened for BRCA1 and/or BRCA2 mutations. The models were evaluated for calibration, discrimination and accuracy of the predictions. Results: Of the five algorithms, only BOADICEA predicted the overall observed number of mutations detected accurately (ie, was well calibrated). BOADICEA also provided the best discrimination, being significantly better (p<0.05) than all models except BRCAPRO (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve statistics: BOADICEA = 0.77, BRCAPRO = 0.76, IBIS = 0.74, Manchester = 0.75, Myriad = 0.72). All models underpredicted the number of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations in the low estimated risk category. Conclusions: Carrier prediction algorithms provide a rational basis for counselling individuals likely to carry BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations. Their widespread use would improve equity of access and the cost-effectiveness of genetic testing.

Breast and ovarian cancer risks to carriers of the BRCA1 5382insC and 185delAG and BRCA2 6174delT mutations: a combined analysis of 22 population based studies

A recent report estimated the breast cancer risks in carriers of the three Ashkenazi founder mutations to be higher than previously published estimates derived from population based studies. In an attempt to confirm this, the breast and ovarian cancer risks associated with the three Ashkenazi founder mutations were estimated using families included in a previous meta-analysis of populatrion based studies. The estimated breast cancer risks for each of the founder BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations were similar to the corresponding estimates based on all BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations in the meta-analysis. These estimates appear to be consistent with the observed prevalence of the mutations in the Ashkenazi Jewish population.