Doug Waggle

Mean-variance analysis with REITs in mixed asset portfolios: The return interval and the time period used for the estimation of inputs

Purpose –Aims to test to determine whether the selection of the historical return time interval (monthly, quarterly, semiannual, or annual) used for calculating real estate investment trust (REIT) returns has a significant effect on optimal portfolio allocations Design/methodology/approach - Using a mean-variance utility function, optimal allocations to portfolios of stocks, bonds, bills, and REITs across different levels of assumed investor risk aversion are calculated. The average historical returns, standard deviations, and correlations (assuming different time intervals) of the various asset classes are used as mean-variance inputs. Results are also compared using more recent data, since 1988, with, data from the full REIT history, which goes back to 1972. Findings -Using the more recent REIT datarather than the full dataset results in optimal allocations to REITs that are considerably higher. Likewise, using monthly and quarterly returns tends to understate the variability of REITs and leads to higher portfolio allocations. Research limitations/implications - The results of this study are based on the limited historical return data that are currently available for REITs. The results of future time periods may not prove to be consistent with the findings. Practical implications -Numerous research papers arbitrarily decide to employ monthly or quarterly returns in their analyses to increase the number of REIT observations they have available. These shorter interval returns are generally annualized. This paper addresses the consequences of those decisions. Originality/value -It has been shown that the decision to use return estimation intervals shorter than a year does have dramatic consequences on the results obtained and, therefore, must be carefully considered and justified.

The effect of debt capacity on the long-term stock returns of debt-free firms

This article examines the long-term stock market performance of debt-free firms with high and low levels of debt capacity to see whether they are different. We use Fama and French’s (1993) three-factor and Carhart’s (1997) four-factor models to examine the subsequent 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5-year stock returns of firms that stayed debt free for 3- and 5-year periods. We measure debt capacity as the expected asset liquidation value of a firm, which is proxied by the firm-level tangibility measure defined by Berger, Ofek, and Swary (1996). We find that regardless of the level of debt capacity, zero-debt firms generate positive abnormal returns in the long run after controlling for key risk factors. We also find support for the notion that preserving debt capacity in the form of higher tangibility reinforces the positive abnormal returns over and above the effect of a zero-leverage policy.

The Dispersion of ETF Betas on Financial Websites

This article documents significant dispersion in the beta estimates of exchange-traded funds as available on some leading financial websites. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first systematic study of the dispersion of betas as seen on major finance websites. Almost 40 million visitors access these websites per month. The authors find that leading sites such as Yahoo! Finance, MSNMoney, Morningstar, and Google Finance display betas that significantly (but not intentionally) misrepresent actual levels of systematic risk. These errors could impact the portfolio design of an investor, leading to unintended outcomes. Additionally, the authors identify the primary reason for the significant variance in beta estimates. The explanation is surprising and not rooted in the traditionally discussed differences that are attributed to interval-window length mismatch or varying frequency of security returns. An implication of the findings is that there is no substitute for verification and cross-validation of financial information, even if it is supposedly coming from well-established sources or so-called “black boxes.”

Investor Sentiment and Short-Term Returns for Size-Adjusted Value and Growth Portfolios

We examine the sentiment levels of individual investors relative to subsequent short-term market returns for 1992–2010. We find that sentiment, proxied by percentage of investors who are “bullish” on the market, is significantly negatively related to the subsequent three- and six-month performance of the market. The negative relationship is consistent with the contrarian notion of sentiment. In other words, high (low) levels of bullishness tend to be followed by subsequent low (high) returns. This is true even with the inclusion of standard control explanatory variables (Fama-French [1993]). While the significant results hold for the overall market, they are clearly driven by growth, rather than value stocks. Contrary to some earlier studies, we also note significant explanatory power for sentiment when looking at returns of small-, mid-, and large-cap growth stocks. We also noted that the long-term moving average of monthly bullishness increased from 33.3% to 39.0% over the last 18 years. In our study period, about 5% of the total sentiment observations are above 56% (very bullish) and about 5% are below 27% (quite bearish). Finally, we find some strength in the lagged autocorrelation structure for the sentiment variable that lasts for just about three to nine months.

Financing preferences: evidence from the Korean market

ABSTRACT We investigate the financing decisions of Korean firms during the period of 1996–2015. Korean firms follow a matching strategy for funding their cash needs. Cash inflows from investing activities are the primary source of funding for capital expenditures, and cash inflows from financing activities are the major means of covering cash outflows from financing activities. We also find that Korean firms’ financing practice of handling cash deficits can be described by the pecking order model modified and augmented by cash flow variables. Cash inflows from investing activities account for the major portion of financing to make up for cash deficits, followed by short- and long-term debt, and then equity financing.

Faculty practices in undergraduate investments courses

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the practices of professors teaching the introductory class in investments. Design/methodology/approach - A sample of 101 syllabi of the first investments course taught in various AACSB accredited business schools around the country was collected. Several dimensions of course content are summarized: the primary textbook selections, other required and recommended materials including the use of spreadsheets, financial calculators, financial magazines such as the Findings - Classroom practices of investments professors differ considerably. There is virtually nothing that is universally applied by investments faculty. There are, however, many areas such as key content to include in the course where a large majority tends to agree with each other. Originality/value - While there is obviously not a single right way to teach investments, many professors may be able to improve their classes or their assessment methods by trying some of the things that others are doing. Including stock market games, for example, might enlighten the students and encourage more classroom discussion.

Suicides as a response to adverse market sentiment (1980-2016)

Financial crises inflict significant human as well as economic hardship. This paper focuses on the human fallout of capital market stress. Financial stress-induced behavioral changes can manifest in higher suicide and murder-suicide rates. We find that these rates also correlate with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (negatively associated; a -0.25% drop [in the rate of change in annual suicides for a +1% change in the independent variable]), unemployment rate (positive link; 0.298% increase), inflation rate (positive link; 0.169% increase in suicide rate levels) and stock market returns adjusted for the risk-free T-Bill rate (negative link; -0.047% drop). Suicides tend to rise during periods of economic turmoil, such as the recent Great Recession of 2008. An analysis of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data of more than 2 million non-natural deaths in the US since 1980 reveals a positive correlation with unemployment levels. We find that suicides and murder-suicides associated with adverse market sentiment lag the initial stressor by up to two years, thus opening a policy window for government/public health intervention to reduce these negative outcomes. Both our models explain about 73 to 76% of the variance in suicide rates and rate of change in suicide rates, and deploy a total of four widely available independent variables (lagged and/or transformed). The results are invariant to the inclusion/exclusion of 2008 data over the 1980–2016 time series, the period of our study. The disconnect between rational decision making, induced by cognitive dissonance and severe financial stress can lead to suboptimal outcomes, not only in the area of investing, but in a direct loss of human capital. No economic system can afford such losses. Finance journal articles focus on monetary alpha, which is the return on a portfolio in excess of the benchmark; we think it is important to be aware of the loss of human capital as a consequence of market instability. This study makes one such an attempt.