Douglas A. Van Belle

The Politics of Humanitarian Aid: U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance, 1964–1995

Previous studies of U.S. foreign aid have firmly established that foreign policy and domestic considerations strongly influence allocations of military and economic development assistance. Uncharted, however, is the question of similar influences on U.S. humanitarian aid. Analyzing U.S. foreign disaster assistance data from 1964 through 1995, this paper concludes that foreign policy and domestic factors not only influence disaster assistance allocations but that they are the overriding determinant. This impact is, however, somewhat differential: the initial “yes/no” decision to grant disaster assistance is markedly political, but the subsequent “how much” decision is also not devoid of political considerations.

Press Freedom and the Democratic Peace

A persistent question in the study of international conflict centers on the role of democratic political institutions and the initiation of war. Several dyadic examinations of data on regime type and conflict reveal that democracies do not appear to fight one another. This article describes a mechanism within the structure of modern democracies and their foreign policy decision-making process that might explain how the interdemocratic peace functions. When a democracy faces a non-democracy in international conflict, the democratic leader can expect to be the dominant source of `legitimate information for the domestic news media. As the dominant source of information, the leader can use the resources of his or her office to influence the news content to his or her domestic political benefit. Information reported from the government controlled media of non-democratic regimes is reported as propaganda and dismissed as such. In contrast, when two democracies come into conflict, the domestic news media on both sides accept each other as legitimate sources of information and neither leader can expect to dominate the legitimate sources of news to nearly the same extent. As a result, neither leader can expect to have an overwhelming influence on the content of the news media, and the domestic political costs of war, upon which Kant based his model of a perpetual peace, will far outweigh any potential domestic political benefits received from engaging in conflict. This mechanism also offers an explanation for some of the seemingly inconsistent findings at the edges of the democratic peace, such as covert operations by one democracy against another.A persistent question in the study of international conflict centers on the role of democratic political institutions and the initiation of war. Several dyadic examinations of data on regime type and conflict reveal that democracies do not appear to fight one another. This article describes a mechanism within the structure of modern democracies and their foreign policy decision-making process that might explain how the interdemocratic peace functions. When a democracy faces a non-democracy in international conflict, the democratic leader can expect to be the dominant source of `legitimate information for the domestic news media. As the dominant source of information, the leader can use the resources of his or her office to influence the news content to his or her domestic political benefit. Information reported from the government controlled media of non-democratic regimes is reported as propaganda and dismissed as such. In contrast, when two democracies come into conflict, the domestic news media on both sides accept each other as legitimate sources of information and neither leader can expect to dominate the legitimate sources of news to nearly the same extent. As a result, neither leader can expect to have an overwhelming influence on the content of the news media, and the domestic political costs of war, upon which Kant based his model of a perpetual peace, will far outweigh any potential domestic political benefits received from engaging in conflict. This mechanism also offers an explanation for some of the seemingly inconsistent findings at the edges of the democratic peace, such as covert operations by one democracy against another.

New York Times and Network TV News Coverage of Foreign Disasters: The Significance of the Insignificant Variables

This article analyzes U.S. news media coverage of foreign disasters, using a new data set on disasters, and incorporates variables representing several possible contextual influenceson the amount of coverage. The most notable aspect of the results produced in this analysis is that when the magnitude of the event is controlled for, the only contextual influence that demonstrates the expected relationship with the amount of coverage is the distance from the United States. Several of the other contextual factors that have been argued to be significant determinants of international flows of news are not significant in the analysis.This article analyzes U.S. news media coverage of foreign disasters, using a new data set on disasters, and incorporates variables representing several possible contextual influenceson the amount of coverage. The most notable aspect of the results produced in this analysis is that when the magnitude of the event is controlled for, the only contextual influence that demonstrates the expected relationship with the amount of coverage is the distance from the United States. Several of the other contextual factors that have been argued to be significant determinants of international flows of news are not significant in the analysis.

Bureaucratic Responsiveness to the News Media: Comparing the Influence of The New York Times and Network Television News Coverage on US Foreign Aid Allocations

This study compares the influence that The New York Times coverage and network television news coverage have on the bureaucracies responsible for the allocation of U.S. foreign aid. While previous research has demonstrated a clear correlation between variations in coverage, and the allocation of aid, it is not clear exactly which indicator should be used to measure that coverage and there are plausible arguments that either could produce a more substantial and robust correlation with government action. The results presented in this article demonstrate that both news outlets can reasonably be used as indicators of news media salience as an influence on bureaucracies. However, the levels of The New York Times coverage consistently perform slightly better in the statistical analyses, suggesting that scholars with no theoretical or conceptual preference may wish to choose The New York Times as an indicator of salience in the news media.This study compares the influence that The New York Times coverage and network television news coverage have on the bureaucracies responsible for the allocation of U.S. foreign aid. While previous research has demonstrated a clear correlation between variations in coverage, and the allocation of aid, it is not clear exactly which indicator should be used to measure that coverage and there are plausible arguments that either could produce a more substantial and robust correlation with government action. The results presented in this article demonstrate that both news outlets can reasonably be used as indicators of news media salience as an influence on bureaucracies. However, the levels of The New York Times coverage consistently perform slightly better in the statistical analyses, suggesting that scholars with no theoretical or conceptual preference may wish to choose The New York Times as an indicator of salience in the news media.

The Effects of Satellite Technology on Newsgathering from Remote Locations

Over the course of the last decade, the equipment used by news organizations to transmit text, voice, and images from locations without fixed or operational communications links has changed radically. Whereas remote real-time transmissions once required tons of satellite uplink equipment, generators, and a stable of technicians, approximately the same can be accomplished today with a laptop sized device and handheld digital camera. This sort of technological prowess was seen most recently in the 2003 war in Iraq. We hypothesize that, as a result of these technological developments, the likelihood of newsgathering from remote locations has increased. By “remote location,” we mean any place without the standard technical infrastructure (fixed satellite uplinks or high-speed terrestrial lines). Most often, remoteness of this sort is a feature of nonurban, less developed regions of the world. This hypothesis is a critical but untested presumption underlying recent debates concerning the CNN effect, event-driven news, and other aspects of the changing nature of the relationships between news media and policy. In our analysis, we find evidence of a decrease in the effects of remoteness on levels of U.S. media coverage of distant events.

Leadership and Collective Action: The Case of Revolution

Based uipoin the idea that leadership cotuld provide a rational and parsimonious soltution to the collective action problem, this article develops a simple uitility equation and a concepttual model of choice that is tised to interconnect the rational choice, short-term exogenous shock, and longrtun socioeconomic perspectives on revolutionary collective action. Leadership plays a critical role in overcoming both the initial barriers to collective action and the ongoing difficulties encountered in the pturstuit of public goods. Though much work remains to be accomplished, this modeling project builds a conceptual fotundation from which a more rigorotus, more formal depiction of the proposed relationships can be developed and from which the empirical testing of the dynamics of revoltution and other collective actions can be facilitated. Collective endeavors are faced with a simple obstacle: the free rider. When the product of a collective activity, such as the new government that is formed as a result of a mass revolution, cannot be withheld from noncontributors, individuals will attempt to avoid contributing to the activity. Why incur costs when the benefit is provided to all regardless of wh1o participates? This article examines the role leadership plays in overcoming both the initial and the continuing problems associated with the pursuit of collective action. First, an analysis of the costs and benefits related to the leadership position provides a means of explaining how the initial collective action problem can be overcome and a group can be formed to pursue the collective endeavor. Individuals taking on the role(s) of leadership receive benefits, identified as leadership benefits, associated with holding the leadership position. These benefits can be great enough to overcome the long odds and high costs associated with the initiation of collective endeavors, even in the most extreme case of collective action, revolution. The impact of leadership on group formation is qualified by structural factors which are explored in the case of revolution. Structural factors also impact how leadership influences the dynamics of the collective action groups once they have been formed and set in motion. An examination of the dynamic relationship between the number of participants and the estimated probability of success provides a foundation for describing how the value individuals place on the goals being pursued in the collective activity depends upon the structure in which the choice is being made. Leaders on both sides of the collective endeavor, supporting and

Greasing the squeaky wheel: News media coverage and us development aid, 1977–1992

This study explores the role that news media coverage plays in influencing US foreign policy in general, and foreign aid policy in particular. It is expected that foreign policy officials will be responsive to the content of the domestic news media and will attempt to align their actions with what they expect is the publics perception of the importance of a particular issue. In this study, it is hypothesized that that higher levels of news coverage of a potential recipient country will lead to higher aid commitments. The analysis examines the levels of US aid commitments to those it provided aid during the period 1977–1992. Even with an admittedly simple measure of news media coverage, the empirical findings are clear. The level of news coverage is a statistically significant factor in the levels of aid offered by the US. Thus a domestic political motive may be considered to be operative along with more widely studied determinants of aid based upon humanitarian motives and national self‐interests.

Japanese foreign disaster assistance: the ad hoc period in international politics and the illusion of a CNN effect:

Policy uncertainty is often cited as a cause of the CNN effect. In fact, many argue that an uncertain policy environment is a necessary condition for media-driven foreign policy. While the logic appears compelling, rigorous empirical analyses of the influence of the news media on Japanese foreign disaster aid allocations indicates that, as the global policy environment became more uncertain with the end of the Cold War, media influence went from being a prominent factor in foreign disaster aid allocations to being statistically insignificant. This finding is contrary to the logic of the policy uncertainty argument for media-driven foreign policy as a generalization but it is consistent with the earlier findings for the US disaster assistance program. This lends additional evidence for the argument that the most significant aspect of the CNN effect, the presumed rise of a media-driven foreign policy environment in the 1990s, may have been illusory.

Agenda setting, localisation and the third-person effect: an experimental study of when news content will directly influence public demands for policy change

ABSTRACT Building from the third-person effect model of DRR policy adoption and mediated policy learning, this study provides an experimental examination of how specific elements of news media’s localisation of distant events directly influence public opinion. Controlling for salience effects, the construction of affinities between the distant, stricken community and the newspaper’s audience is argued to create a sense of shared vulnerability to the reported disasters. This is correlated within an increase in the respondent’s intention to act directly and an increase in their willingness to punish elected officials who do not act accordingly. The construction of difference between the communities, even though it is not related to risks related to the disaster, is argued to create implicit reassurances that the observing community does not need to act. This leads to an increased intention to act directly in opposition to efforts to reduce risk, but a neutral response towards political actors who pursue risk reduction policy actions.

The Challenge of a Disaggregated Aid Program: News Media Coverage and Japanese Development Aid

We begin this chapter with an assertion of convergence and then a puzzle. While the data on press influence over aid allocations in Japan presented in this chapter are generally consistent with the findings for the other four countries, there are some intriguing differences. To put one conclusion from the data first, the complex and disaggregated nature of the Japanese aid program, encompassing as many as 18 agencies with no overarching coordinating mechanism or doctrine, complicates the analysis and makes it difficult to tie the results to the actions of a coherent bureaucratic entity. The initial results from the baseline analysis appear discouraging and it is not until steps are taken to cut through the complexity of the Japanese multiagency system that the effect of the media and other influences becomes apparent. Even with these difficulties, the analyses indicate that the media are more influential than generally supposed in the study of Japanese foreign policy. The finer-grained analysis of the data that suggest that press influence, while not as simple or straightforward as might otherwise be concluded from the other donors analyzed is still quite clear.