Douglas G. Goodin

A technique for monitoring ecological disturbance in tallgrass prairie using seasonal NDVI trajectories and a discriminant function mixture model

Abstract Natural and anthropogenic disturbance in tallgrass prairie communities can induce changes in plant species composition, including shifts in the relative abundance of C3 and C4 lifeforms. The asynchronous seasonality in greenness exhibited by C3 and C4 species enables monitoring of their relative abundance using temporal trajectories of sensor-derived vegetation indices, such as NDVI. We use close-range measurements made over 22 experimental plots at the Konza Prairie Research Natural Area (KPRNA) to evaluate seasonal trajectories in NDVI as a function of C 3 C 4 ratio. The NDVI data were collected from each plot at approximately 10-day intervals throughout the 1995 growing season. Metrics for summarizing the temporal behavior of NDVI trajectories were derived from two transformations of the data: 1) a conventional approach plotting NDVI against day of year and 2) an alternative approach plotting normalized cumulative integrated NDVI against growing degree day. Discriminant function mixture models derived from each set of inetrics were used together with species composition data from the experimental plots to derive relative C 3 C 4 abundances. Results show that both methods can classify the majority of cases into their correct C 3 C 4 abundance category; however, the transformation using normalized integrated NDVI against growing degree day was a significantly better discriminator (p=0.0102). The techniques presented are effective for monitoring relative C 3 C 4 abundance in tallgrass prairie; however, more investigation is needed to assess their performance at different spatial resolutions and in different geographic settings.

The effect of solar illumination angle and sensor view angle on observed patterns of spatial structure in tallgrass prairie

While it has long been recognized that the anisotropic reflectance properties of a natural surface affect the intensity and spectral distribution of radiance received by a remote sensing instrument, the effects of canopy reflectance geometry on the observed spatial structure of canopy reflectance have not adequately been evaluated. In this paper, near-surface spectrometers were used as part of two experiments to evaluate the systematic variations in the sun-target-sensor geometry on semivariogram metrics (range, sill+nugget variance) summarizing the spatial structure observed in a tallgrass prairie canopy. In the first experiment, reflectance measurements and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values were collected at five sensor viewing angles (-50/spl deg/, -25/spl deg/, 0/spl deg/, 25/spl deg/, and 50/spl deg/) from six measurement grids representing three burn treatments and two slope/aspect situations. In the second experiment, data were collected at 2-h intervals, beginning at /spl ap/0800 LST from the same grids with the radiometer at nadir, allowing the spatial structure of reflectance and NDVI to be observed under naturally changing illumination. Results of the geostatistical analysis show that both the range and sill+nugget variance values change with viewing angle. These effects were consistent across all treatments and slope/aspect combinations. However, when viewed from nadir, the sill+nugget variance values of the canopy changed with solar illumination angle and the range values remained nearly constant. These relationships were also observed across all treatments and slope/aspect combinations. The results suggest that sill+nugget values for the same surface may not be directly comparable if not acquired under very similar view angle and illumination conditions. Range values are comparable if the nadir view is used, but not under off-nadir viewing conditions. The implications of these findings point to the need for caution in interpreting spatial structure derived from close-range radiometry or from satellite/aircraft instruments with cross-track or off-nadir pointing capabilities, and in the comparison of images acquired under varying illumination conditions.

Climate Change is Likely to Worsen the Public Health Threat of Diarrheal Disease in Botswana

Diarrheal disease is an important health challenge, accounting for the majority of childhood deaths globally. Climate change is expected to increase the global burden of diarrheal disease but little is known regarding climate drivers, particularly in Africa. Using health data from Botswana spanning a 30-year period (1974–2003), we evaluated monthly reports of diarrheal disease among patients presenting to Botswana health facilities and compared this to climatic variables. Diarrheal case incidence presents with a bimodal cyclical pattern with peaks in March (ANOVA p < 0.001) and October (ANOVA p < 0.001) in the wet and dry season, respectively. There is a strong positive autocorrelation (p < 0.001) in the number of reported diarrhea cases at the one-month lag level. Climatic variables (rainfall, minimum temperature, and vapor pressure) predicted seasonal diarrheal with a one-month lag in variables (p < 0.001). Diarrheal case incidence was highest in the dry season after accounting for other variables, exhibiting on average a 20% increase over the yearly mean (p < 0.001). Our analysis suggests that forecasted climate change increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation may increase dry season diarrheal disease incidence with hot, dry conditions starting earlier and lasting longer. Diarrheal disease incidence in the wet season is likely to decline. Our results identify significant health-climate interactions, highlighting the need for an escalated public health focus on controlling diarrheal disease in Botswana. Study findings have application to other arid countries in Africa where diarrheal disease is a persistent public health problem.

Land-cover change in the Paraguayan Chaco: 2000–2011

Land-use and land-cover change has been a topic that has called the attention of the scientific community for decades. Because of the importance of tropical and subtropical forest ecosystems, investigations into the causes and processes (e.g., underlying and proximate causation) that drive land use and land-cover change have typically concentrated on these regions. Consequently, little work has been done to understand the proximate and underlying drivers of land use and land-cover change in one of the least disturbed forests worldwide, the Paraguayan dry Chaco in South America. This article attempts to fill this gap in the literature by focusing on the processes and drivers behind land-cover change in the Paraguayan Chaco. More specifically, this article links underlying and proximate causes to regional land-cover change. To accomplish this task the study makes use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and census data. Results show major land-cover changes. Different from other dry regions in South America where soybean expansion has been pointed out as main driver of land-cover change, in the Paraguayan Chaco, cattle ranching is a major driver of forest loss.

Mesoscale Satellite Bioclimatology

This paper examines the strength of relationships between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and climatic data, when examined at the mesoscale. Mean monthly AVHRR NDVI data for 1988-1996 for the months of April through October for State of Kansas, its nine climatic divisions (CDs), and dominant land cover types within each CD were used. Corresponding climatic and water budget data were obtained or derived from National Climatic Data Center data. Temperature, precipitation, and NDVI deviations from normal were determined. Statistical analysis revealed significant relationships between NDVI and climatic variables, although strengths of the associations were modest. The highest correlation coefficient (r) for the state as a whole was 0.53, between NDVI and estimated actual evapotranspiration. When examined by climatic division or major land cover type, relationships between NDVI and a drought index were statistically significant in most cases and ranged from 0.30 to 0.56.

Sympatry of 2 Hantavirus Strains, Paraguay, 2003-2007

To explore geographic and host-taxonomic patterns of hantaviruses in Paraguay, we established sampling sites in the Mbaracayú Biosphere Reserve. We detected Jaborá virus and Itapúa37/Juquitiba–related virus in locations ≈20 m apart in different years, which suggested sympatry of 2 distinct hantaviruses.

Spatiotemporal variation in Akodon montensis (Cricetidae: Sigmodontinae) and hantaviral seroprevalence in a subtropical forest ecosystem

Abstract Relatively little information is available concerning the natural history or population ecology of the montane akodont, Akodon montensis, a sigmodontine species that harbors Jaborá and Ape Aime hantaviruses. On the basis of mark-recapture sampling of 3 locales during 2 years, this report provides comparative data on populational and other characteristics of the species near its distributional limit, in the Upper Paraná Atlantic Forest in Paraguay. We found A. montensis to be almost exclusively terrestrial (nonarboreal) and to vary in population density among locales and between years, findings consistent with earlier studies. Population density was not related either to neotropical seasonality or to most precipitation variables, but sex ratio varied seasonally, which has not been reported previously. We evaluated the seroprevalence of hantavirus in A. montensis, in association with external, populational, and individual variables. As in most previous studies of rodent–hantavirus systems, seroprevalence varied among sampling locales and was higher among males. However, unlike previous reports, especially those from North America, we did not find a correspondence between seroprevalence and population density, seasonal variation, or most precipitation variables. Simple and direct associations between seroprevalence levels and either seasonality or precipitation may be less characteristic of humid neotropical or subtropical systems. Our analyses revealed that seropositive animals exhibit several noteworthy behavioral and life-history modifications, in particular that they have larger home ranges than do seronegatives; exhibit greater maximum distance moved; have greater home range displacement between sampling sessions, particularly those individuals that are seroconverting during the same period; and have greater longevity, especially among males. In general, these characteristics could be postulated as favorable to the capacity of the virus to be transmitted horizontally to other hosts.

Microhabitat characteristics of Akodon montensis, a reservoir for hantavirus, and hantaviral seroprevalence in an Atlantic forest site in eastern Paraguay

ABSTRACT: Hantaviruses may cause serious disease when transmitted to humans by their rodent hosts. Since their emergence in the Americas in 1993, there have been extensive efforts to understand the role of environmental factors on the presence of these viruses in their host rodent populations. HPS outbreaks have been linked to precipitation, but climatic factors alone have not been sufficient to predict the spatial-temporal dynamics of the environment-reservoir-virus system. Using a series of mark-recapture sampling sites located at the Mbaracayú Biosphere Reserve, an Atlantic Forest site in eastern Paraguay, we investigated the hypothesis that microhabitat might also influence the prevalence of Jaborá hantavirus within populations of its reservoir species, Akodon montensis. Seven trapping sessions were conducted during 2005–2006 at four sites chosen to capture variable microhabitat conditions within the study site. Analysis of microhabitat preferences showed that A. montensis preferred areas with little forest overstory and denser vegetation cover on and near the ground. Moreover, there was a significant difference in the microhabitat occupied by antibody-positive vs antibody-negative rodents, indicating that microhabitats with greater overstory cover may promote transmission and maintenance of hantavirus in A. montensis.

Differentiation of Springtime Vegetation Indices Associated with Summer Anthrax Epizootics in West Texas, USA, Deer

Anthrax outbreaks in white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginianus, are frequent in west Texas, USA, particularly across the Edwards Plateau. However, the outbreak severity varies among years. We summarize the outbreak history in white-tailed deer at a ranch north of Del Rio, Texas, from 2001 to 2010 and compare mortality rates to remotely sensed vegetation indices derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite data. It has long been posited that the occurrence of mid- to high-latitude epizootics is associated with hot, dry summer conditions preceded by a wet spring, with cases occurring after summer rain events. Here we employed vegetation green-up indices as a proxy for such environmental conditions. Annual trajectories of vegetation indices identified a clear pattern of early green springs with dry summers in severe outbreak years. In contrast, later, less intense spring green-up with greener summers were associated with enzootic mortality years, when few cases occurred. There was a statistically significant difference in the annual timing and intensity of spring green-up from vegetation indices for epizootic and enzootic years. Years with epizootics have early, intense spring conditions, whereas enzootic years have low-intensity green-up. These results suggest that early green-up signatures may be useful in identifying epizootic climatic conditions ahead of the summer anthrax period. Such analyses are required to ultimately develop an early warning system for wildlife managers and veterinary public health officials.

A habitat-based model for the spread of hantavirus between reservoir and spillover species

Abstract New habitat-based models for spread of hantavirus are developed which account for interspecies interaction. Existing habitat-based models do not consider interspecies pathogen transmission, a primary route for emergence of new infectious diseases and reservoirs in wildlife and man. The modeling of interspecies transmission has the potential to provide more accurate predictions of disease persistence and emergence dynamics. The new models are motivated by our recent work on hantavirus in rodent communities in Paraguay. Our Paraguayan data illustrate the spatial and temporal overlaps among rodent species, one of which is the reservoir species for Jabora virus and others which are spillover species. Disease transmission occurs when their habitats overlap. Two mathematical models, a system of ordinary differential equations (ODE) and a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model, are developed for spread of hantavirus between a reservoir and a spillover species. Analysis of a special case of the ODE model provides an explicit expression for the basic reproduction number, R 0 , such that if R 0 < 1 , then the pathogen does not persist in either population but if R 0 > 1 , pathogen outbreaks or persistence may occur. Numerical simulations of the CTMC model display sporadic disease incidence, a new behavior of our habitat-based model, not present in other models, but which is a prominent feature of the seroprevalence data from Paraguay. Environmental changes that result in greater habitat overlap result in more encounters among various species that may lead to pathogen outbreaks and pathogen establishment in a new host.