Douglas Jeffrey

An analysis of the nature, causes and marketing implications of seasonality in the occupancy performance of English hotels.

Seasonal mismatching of supply and demand and the associated over/under utilization of capacity are characteristic features of the tourist industry. Visitor demands, in terms of the number, type, timing and destination of visits can fluctuate widely over the course of the year, but the supply of tourist facilities is usually fixed, at least in the short term. The result is a range of problems in resource usage, utilization and management. The characteristics, causes and consequences of seasonality in tourism have been thoroughly explored in other papers in this volume, and in a range of previous studies (Bar-On, 1975; Witt, Brooke & Buckley, 1991; McEniff, 1992). In this paper attention will focus specifically on seasonality in the hotel industry. It will seek to identify and explain differences in the nature and intensity of seasonal fluctuations in occupancy levels within a large and representative sample of English hotels, and to extract implications from the findings for the management and marketing of hotels.

What Makes for a Successful Hotel? Insights on Hotel Management Following 15 Years of Hotel Occupancy Analysis in England

Time series analyses of daily and monthly occupancy rates in different samples of hotels in England over a 15-year period reveal consistent temporal components of occupancy performance. These differentiate hotels in terms of overall occupancy levels, seasonality, length of season, trend and within-week variations. The components are related to the characteristics of hotels and their management using statistical methods and structured interview surveys, and the factors affecting occupancy performance of hotels are identified and calibrated. The policy implications for the results for successful hotel marketing and management are extracted.

An analysis of daily occupancy performance: a basis for effective hotel marketing?

Time series analysis of daily room occupancy rates in 91 hotels in England from January 1992 to December 1994 is used to analyse within‐week occupancy performance in the English hotel industry. Two major temporal patterns are identified: one features a midweek peak and Saturday sub‐peak; the other features a broader weekend peak and midweek trough. Both are represented in the occupancy profiles of most hotels. They are used to define a two‐dimensional daily occupancy performance space. The positioning of hotels within this space is explained in terms of location, market and other characteristics of the hotels, in a stepwise regression analysis. The implications of the findings are discussed in a marketing context.

The UK market for tourism in China.

Abstract An analysis and segmentation of the UK tourism market for China is performed, based on the evaluation of holiday activities by visitors. Using the results of questionnaire data, a uni-factor analysis tests the hypothesis that visitors have similar holiday activity expectations. The single dominant factor identified partially confirms the hypothesis. A subsequent factor analysis identifies seven more, each associated with a package of activities. Cluster and stepwise regression analyses link the factors to the socioeconomic, demographic, and travel characteristics of the respondents, and a useful market segmentation is achieved. The implications of the findings for marketing Chinas international tourism are discussed.

Monitoring hotel performance using occupancy time-series analysis: the concept of occupancy performance space

Time series factor analysis is used to identify four temporal dimensions of occupancy performance in 279 English hotels over the period January 1992 to December 1994. These dimensions referred to as reference curves differentiate hotels on the basis of overall occupancy level (RC1), seasonality (RC2), long-term trend (RC3) and length of season (RC4). The reference curves are used to define the dimensions of occupancy performance space in which the 279 hotels are positioned, with the hotels differentiated by hotel situation type. It is shown that the positioning of a hotel in occupancy performance space can provide a precise and effective basis for hotel marketing.

Spatial and temporal patterns of demand for hotel accomodation: Time series analysis in Yorkshire and Humberside, UK

Abstract This article is concerned with the identification and interpretation of spatial-temporal patterns of demand for hotel accomodation. Time-series factor analysis is applied to a set of monthly hotel-occupancy series recorded by the Yorkshire and Humberside Tourist Board (YHTB) for 101 hotels in Yorkshire and Humberside, UK, from April 1982 to March 1983. Three major temporal components of expressed demand for hotel accomodation (reference curves) are identified, reflecting differences in occupancy level, the intensity of seasonal fluctuations, and the length of season. The hotels are differentiated, and then grouped, on the basis of their individual parameters on the three reference curves. The spatial-temporal patterns identified form the basis of continuing research which aims to aid the formulation of appropriate marketing and development policies for the hotel industry.

A model of hotel occupancy performance for monitoring and marketing in the hotel industry

Abstract In this paper a conceptual and empirical basis is presented for the use of hotel occupancy data in monitoring hotel performance and marketing hotels. A model is developed differentiating between two fundamental aspects of a hotels occupancy performance-its proportionality component, reflecting its occupancy response to national demand conditions and its competitive component, resulting from regional, local and unique factors affecting its occupancy performance. Competitive occupancy performance is further disaggregated into unique, common, systematic, derived and local components. The model is fitted to daily occupancy from a national sample of over 700 hotels. Some of the empirical results are presented, but attention is focussed on the application of the model in monitoring and marketing hotels.

Multivariate models of hotel occupancy performance and their implications for hotel marketing

Multivariate models are developed to explain the differential occupancy performance of a sample of 279 English hotels. Following a procedure established in an earlier paper, hotels are first differentiated on the basis of their overall occupancy performance, seasonality, long-term trend and length of season. Regression models are specified and calibrated to relate each of these dimensions of occupancy performance to the location and other characteristics of the hotels. The four models produce the expected positions of hotels in ‘occupancy performance space’, against which their observed positions can be compared. The application of the models in hotel marketing is discussed and demonstrated. Copyright

Spatial-sectoral patterns of employment growth in Yorkshire and Humberside, 1963–1975: A time series factor analytic approach

Jeffrey D. and Adams J. C. (1980) Spatial-sectoral patterns of employment growth in Yorkshire and Humberside, 1963–1975: a time series factor analytic approach, Reg. Studies 14, 441–453. This paper demonstrates the use of time series factor analysis in the identification of spatial/sectoral/temporal growth patterns. An application of the technique to employment growth by industry and subregion in Yorkshire and Humberside from 1963 to 1975 yields a comprehensive and concise summary of spatial/sectoral growth performance. Three dimensions of growth are identified, measuring the extent, timing and cyclical sensitivity of growth, and each of the 960 individual growth curves are differentiated in terms of their scores on the three dimensions. The relationship between the extent and cyclical sensitivity of growth is explored: in three basic industries a significant negative relationship is evident, whilst for eight non-basic industries the relationship is positive. The principal concern is with the parsimonious...

Temporal dimensions and regional patterns of hotel occupancy performance in England: a time series analysis of midweek and weekend occupancy rates in 266 hotels in 1984 and 1985.

Abstract A time series principal components analysis of midweek-weekend bed occupancy rates in 266 hotels in England in 1984 and 1985 identifies four components of occupancy performance reflecting differences in occupancy levels, seasonal and weekly variations and length of season. Regional patterns of occupancy performance are also identified and these have significance for investment and marketing decision making within the industry. In particular, a clear link is established between occupancy levels and overseas visitor arrivals and the opportunities and dangers for the industry stemming from this relationship are discussed.