Douglas P. Boer

Prospective Actuarial Risk Assessment: A Comparison of Five Risk Assessment Instruments in Different Sexual Offender Subtypes

This study examines the predictive validity of the most commonly used risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders: Static-99, Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense Recidivism, Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, Sexual Violence Risk—20, and Psychopathy Checklist—Revised in a prospective research design. Although risk assessment is part of a regime leading to various efforts to reduce risk by treatment and aftercare, all instruments show good predictive validity. However, depending on the instrument, recidivism category, and subgroup, the predictive accuracy varies markedly. Furthermore, the authors fail to demonstrate predictive validity for sexual violent reoffences—for the whole sample and for all subgroups. The results, nevertheless, support the utility and predictive validity of actuarial risk assessment complementary to treatment efforts to reduce risk. On the other hand, forensic practitioners have to be aware of the limitations of actuarial risk assessment methods, in particular as regards to variable predictive accuracy for different sexual offender subgroups and reoffence categories.

The assessment of dynamic risk and recidivism in a sample of special needs sexual offenders.

Abstract The predictive validity of four risk assessment instruments: the RRASOR, SVR-20, RM2000-V and the ARMIDILO-Stable and -Acute dynamic client subscales were assessed on a sample of 88 offenders: 44 mainstream and 44 sexual offenders with special needs, who had been matched on risk items within the RRASOR tool. Instruments were coded retrospectively from file information. Sexual reconviction data was used, in conjunction with sexual recidivism data based on unofficial data sources, over a mean follow-up period of 8.8 years. The results of this study found that the ARMIDILO instrument was the best predictor for sexual reconviction among offenders with special needs (ARMIDILO-Stable, AUC=0.60; ARMIDILO-Acute, AUC=0.73), while the predictive validities of the RRASOR (AUC=0.53) and the RM2000-V (AUC=0.50) were little better than chance. In contrast, the SVR-20 yielded a higher score (AUC=0.73) for the non-ID sample, than for the intellectually disabled sample (AUC=0.45). Within the special needs group, the ARMIDILO-Acute, SVR-20 Psychosocial Affect, and Overall scales were better predictors of sexual recidivism for the intellectually disabled subgroup (AUCs ranging from 0.75 to 0.88). These results are discussed in the context of current practice.

The three dimensions of online child pornography offending

Abstract The internet has opened up opportunities for non-contact sex offending, such as the viewing of child pornography. This paper proposes a model for the classification of child pornography offenders as an aid for their assessment and treatment, deducted from empirical studies and existing typologies for child pornography offenders. Different subgroups of child pornography offenders may be described according to three dimensions: (1) type of offending, (2) the motivation behind child pornography offending and (3) the situational and social engagement in the offending behaviour. Distinct pathways of child pornography offending can be identified, related to differing criminogenic needs, severity of offending, and appropriate assessment and treatment strategies for the offenders.

The Personality Assessment Inventory as a proxy for the Psychopathy Checklist Revised: testing the incremental validity and cross-sample robustness of the Antisocial Features Scale

The Personality Assessment Inventorys (PAIs) ability to predict psychopathic personality features, as assessed by the Psychopathy Checklist–Revised (PCL-R), was examined. To investigate whether the PAI Antisocial Features (ANT) Scale and subscales possessed incremental validity beyond other theoretically relevant PAI scales, optimized regression equations were derived in a sample of 281 Canadian federal offenders. ANT, or ANT–Antisocial Behavior (ANT-A), demonstrated unique variance in regression analyses predicting PCL-R total and Factor 2 (Lifestyle Impulsivity and Social Deviance) scores, but only the Dominance (DOM) Scale was retained in models predicting Factor 1 (Interpersonal and Affective Deficits). Attempts to cross-validate the regression equations derived from the first sample on a sample of 85 U.S. sex offenders resulted in considerable validity shrinkage, with the ANT Scale in isolation performing comparably to or better than the statistical models for PCL-R total and Factor 2 scores. Results offer limited evidence of convergent validity between the PAI and the PCL-R.

The Predictive Accuracy of Risk Factors in the Sexual Violence Risk-20 (Svr-20)

The Sexual Violence Risk–20 (SVR-20) is the most commonly used structured professional judgment guideline for sexual offender risk assessment and risk management planning. Using a prospective longitudinal research design the authors evaluated the predictive accuracy of the SVR-20, of its subscales, and of the individual items in relation to different recidivism criteria and offender subgroups by analyzing a total sample of 493 sexual offenders released from the Austrian Prison System. Findings indicate good predictive accuracy for the prediction of sexual recidivism for the total sample (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = .72) as well as for the rapist subgroup (n = 221, AUC = .71) and the child molester subsample (n = 249, AUC = .77). However, the results also revealed some inconsistency in the predictive power of the SVR-20 depending on recidivism criterion and offender subgroup. Furthermore, it can be pointed out that the subscales and individual items substantially differ in their association with future sexual and nonsexual violence.

Predicting Recidivism in Sex Offenders Using the SVR-20: The Contribution of Age-at-release

Sex offenders (N = 468) were released from custody and recidivism outcome was recorded. The Sexual Violence Risk-20 (SVR-20) was scored for each offender and the relationship between age-at-release and SVR-20 item and total scores was examined. SVR-20 total scores were not correlated with age-at-release (r = .-057). SVR-20 scores were combined with a score representing the age of the offender at their release from custody. On the basis of ROC analysis, predictive accuracy was significantly enhanced when age-atrelease was included in the risk score. We suggest that the SVR-20, and perhaps other similar risk instruments, could be improved by including age-at-release information. We discuss the possibility that the advantage obtained by empirical actuarial instruments may be due in part to their close relation with age-at-release.

A Psychosocial Study of Male-to-Female Transgendered and Male Hustler Sex Workers in São Paulo, Brazil

This study examined sociodemographic variables, personality characteristics, and alcohol and drug misuse among male sex workers in the city of Santo André, São Paulo, Brazil. A total of 45 male-to-female transgender sex workers and 41 male hustlers were evaluated in face-to-face interviews at their place of work from 2008 to 2010. A “snowball” sampling procedure was used to access this hard-to-reach population. Male-to-female transgender sex workers reported fewer conventional job opportunities, fewer school problems, and higher harm avoidance and depression levels than male hustlers. Also, transgender sex workers reported earning more money through sex work and more frequently living in hostels with peers than their counterparts. As biological male sex workers are a heterogeneous population, attempts to classify them into distinctive groups should be further carried out as a way to better understand and identify their behavior, design effective health interventions, and consequently minimize the likelihood of unintended adverse outcomes. Our study showed that gender performance can be an important variable to be considered by researchers and policy makers when working with sex workers and developing HIV/AIDS prevention and public health programs, given that transgender and male sex workers not only display distinctive behavior and physical appearance but also reveal differences on specific psychological measures, such as personality traits and depression levels. We recommend that counselors working with this population strike a balance between facilitating self-disclosure and establishing more evidence-based directive interventions.

The endorsement of cognitive distortions: comparing child pornography offenders and contact sex offenders

This study examined the endorsement of cognitive distortions in child pornography offenders (CPOs), using an established assessment tool, the Abel and Becker Cognition Scale. The scale was expanded to include cognitions specific to child pornography offending, extracted from Howitt and Sheldons Children and Sexual Activities Inventory (C&SA). Three samples of CPOs, child sex offenders and offenders with both offence types responded to the cognition items. An exploratory Principal Component Analysis suggested six main components of the scale. CPOs were significantly less likely to endorse these statements in general, and this was more pronounced on items that project blame onto the child or other people, describe a need for power and consider children as sexually active. The statements extracted from C&SA did not differentiate between the groups. These findings are discussed under consideration of the relationship between cognitive distortions and contact sex offending, and in reference to the general criticism concerning the definition and appropriate measurement of cognitive distortions.

An integrated groupwork methodology for working with sex offenders

Abstract There is now a considerable literature on the assessment and treatment of sexual offenders. There exists another substantial literature on therapeutic groupwork and its relevance to a range of clinical populations. These bodies of work have made reference to the other in terms of their mutual relevance. However, there has been no comprehensive attempt to apply groupwork theory and principles systematically to work with sex offenders. While this work is generally carried out using a group format and the application of groupwork principles is promoted enthusiastically in the field, the application is underdeveloped both empirically and even more so conceptually. As a result, practices vary greatly. We argue here that a systematic and integrated consideration of the application of groupwork methodology to the treatment of sex offenders has the potential to enhance treatment effectiveness significantly. We conclude with implications for training and clinical practice.

Assessing the internal structure of the COPINE scale

Abstract The COPINE scale allows standardised classification of a persons child pornography collection while taking into account contextual considerations. However, despite its frequent usage in research studies, the scale has never been empirically validated with regards to its psychometric properties. This study describes a validation design to assess reliability and construct validity of the scale while considering ethical concerns. An online survey was conducted amongst psychological staff members of Correctional Services NZ as well as postgraduate students from a New Zealand University. Participants were asked to rate verbal descriptions of each item level of the original scale according to its perceived seriousness of the offence, suggesting a higher penalty for more serious image offending. Results revealed that students and correctional staff showed high inter-rater agreement in their rankings, and that rankings increased with higher-level images as defined in the original scale. Two areas of difference to the original scale ranks were identified, concerning levels ‘Posing’ and ‘Sexual Explicit Activities’. The implications of these findings are discussed.