Douglas Paton

Disasters and communities: vulnerability, resilience and preparedness

With regard to their utility in predicting the adoption of household hazard preparations, traditional approaches to public education directed at increasing awareness and/or risk perception have proven ineffective. Discusses reasons why this may have occurred from public education, vulnerability analysis, and community resilience perspectives and outlines strategies for enhancing preparedness. Describes a model of resilience to hazard effects that has been tested in different communities and for different hazards (toxic waste, environmental degradation and volcanic hazards). Drawing upon the health education literature, introduces a model for promoting the adoption on preparatory behaviour. Discusses links between these models, and the need for their implementation within a community development framework.

Disaster preparedness: a social‐cognitive perspective

Despite considerable effort and expenditure on public hazard education, levels of disaster preparedness remain low. By integrating and expanding on natural hazards and health research on protective behaviour, this paper proposes a social cognitive model of disaster preparedness. The model describes a developmental process that commences with factors that motivate people to prepare, progresses through the formation of intentions, and culminates in decisions to prepare. Following their critical appraisal, variables implicated at each stage are identified and their role in the preparedness process described. The implications of the model for the conceptualisation and assessment of preparedness is discussed, as is its implications for risk reduction and communication strategies.

Volcanic hazard perceptions: comparative shifts in knowledge and risk

Residents of two North Island, New Zealand, communities were surveyed in March 1995 to measure their understanding of volcanic hazards. This was repeated in November 1995, following the Ruapehu eruptions of September‐October 1995. Both communities were subjected to intense media coverage during the 1995 Ruapehu eruption. Whakatane was spared any direct effects, whereas Hastings experienced the hazard directly, in the form of ash falls. Only Hastings’ respondents showed a significant change in threat knowledge and perceived volcanic risk. While experiencing the direct and indirect impacts of the 1995 Ruapehu eruption may make subsequent warnings and information releases more salient, thereby enhancing the likelihood of engaging in successful protective actions or other forms of response, the characteristics of hazard impacts may increase susceptibility to a “normalisation bias”, reducing future community preparedness.

Impacts of the 1945 and 1995–1996 Ruapehu eruptions, New Zealand: An example of increasing societal vulnerability

Over the past 50 yr the risk to society from volcanic eruptions has increased sharply due to an increased population, more developed and diversified economies, and a more technologically advanced infrastructure. This fact is demonstrated vividly by the impacts from the two largest eruptions of the twentieth century from the cone volcano of Ruapehu, which suggest that the vulnerability of key sectors in New Zealand society has increased by one to two orders of magnitude over this period. Both the 1945 and 1995–1996 eruptions included explosive phases that dispersed ash over a wide area of the North Island for a period of several months. Individual ash falls were only a few millimeters thick in communities within 150 km of the volcano and only trace amounts were found in communities farther away. The 1995–1996 eruption caused similar physical effects to the 1945 eruption but had considerably greater social and economic impacts. The greatest contribution to the cost of the 1995–1996 eruption, estimated in excess of

Disaster stress: an emergency management perspective

130 million (New Zealand dollars), was the impact on the alpine tourist industry in the central North Island, essentially nonexistent in 1945. Other significant impacts were felt by the rapidly growing aviation and electricity-generation sectors. The cost of any future eruption of the same magnitude is likely to grow as the vulnerability of our society increases at a rapid rate.

Disaster response: risk, vulnerability and resilience

This paper examines the sources of stress likely to be encountered by emergency managers when responding to a disaster. Stressors relating to environmental (e.g. time pressure, level of risk, heat), organisational (e.g. bureaucracy, appropriateness of information, decision support and management systems) and operational (e.g. incident command, decision making, interagency liaison, team and media management) demands are considered. The mediating role of personality and transient states of physical (e.g. fitness and fatigue) and psychological (e.g. high levels of occupational stress) states are reviewed in terms of their influence on stress, judgement and decision making. Strategies for identifying which of these potential stress factors can be controlled or reduced and for training emergency managers to deal with the others are discussed.

The perception of volcanic risk in Kona communities from Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes, Hawai‵i

The assumption of an automatic link between disaster exposure and pathological outcomes is increasingly being questioned. Recognition of the possibility of positive reactions and growth outcomes in this context necessitates the development of alternative models and, in particular, the accommodation of the resilience construct in research and intervention agenda. Reviews possible vulnerability and resilience factors and adopts a risk management framework to outline its potential for modelling the complex relationships between these variables and both growth and distress outcomes. Resilience and vulnerability is discussed at dispositional, cognitive and organisational levels. The paradigm developed here focuses attention on facilitating recovery and growth in professionals for whom disaster work and its consequences is an occupational reality.

Preparing for natural hazards: the role of community trust

Abstract Volcanic hazards in Kona (i.e. the western side of the island of Hawai‵i) stem primarily from Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes. The former has erupted 39 times since 1832. Lava flows were emplaced in Kona during seven of these eruptions and last impacted Kona in 1950. Hualālai last erupted in ca. 1800. Society’s proximity to potential eruptive sources and the potential for relatively fast-moving lava flows, coupled with relatively long time intervals since the last eruptions in Kona, are the underlying stimuli for this study of risk perception. Target populations were high-school students and adults (n=462). Using these data, we discuss threat knowledge as an influence on risk perception, and perception as a driving mechanism for preparedness. Threat knowledge and perception of risk were found to be low to moderate. On average, fewer than two-thirds of the residents were aware of the most recent eruptions that impacted Kona, and a minority felt that Mauna Loa and Hualālai could ever erupt again. Furthermore, only about one-third were aware that lava flows could reach the coast in Kona in less than 3 h. Lava flows and ash fall were perceived to be among the least likely hazards to affect the respondent’s community within the next 10 years, whereas vog (volcanic smog) was ranked the most likely. Less than 18% identified volcanic hazards as amongst the most likely hazards to affect them at home, school, or work. Not surprisingly, individual preparedness measures were found on average to be limited to simple tasks of value in frequently occurring domestic emergencies, whereas measures specific to infrequent hazard events such as volcanic eruptions were seldom adopted. Furthermore, our data show that respondents exhibit an ‘unrealistic optimism bias’ and infer that responsibility for community preparedness for future eruptions primarily rests with officials. We infer that these respondents may be less likely to attend to hazard information, react to warnings as directed, and undertake preparedness measures than other populations who perceive responsibility to lie with themselves. There are significant differences in hazard awareness and risk perception between students and adults, between subpopulations representing local areas, and between varying ethnicities. We conclude that long time intervals since damaging lava flows have occurred in Kona have contributed to lower levels of awareness and risk perceptions of the threat from lava flows, and that the on-going eruption at Kīlauea has facilitated greater awareness and perception of risk of vog but not of other volcanic hazards. Low levels of preparedness may be explained by low perceptions of threat and risk and perhaps by the lack of a clear motivation or incentive to seek new modes of adjustment.

Developing disaster management capability: an assessment centre approach

Abstract: Purpose – This paper seeks to examine how perception of the relationship between people and sources of information influence hazard preparedness and how trust in civic emergency planning agencies responsible for risk communication influences preparedness decisions. It aims to hypothesize that: familiarity with and information about hazards predicts the relative importance of trust; and that levels of trust are influenced by community characteristics. Design/methodology/approach – A cross-sectional analysis of the relationship between trust and hazard preparedness was conducted. Hypotheses were tested using data on bushfire, volcanic and earthquake hazards. Data were analysed using multiple regression analyses. Findings – The first hypothesis, that situational factors predict the relative importance of trust, was supported. Partial support was forthcoming for the second hypothesis. Collective problem solving and empowerment predicted levels of trust. Research limitations/implications – The findings demonstrated the utility of this multi-level model for the analysis of risk communication and need to accommodate societal-level variables in future risk communication research. The source of information plays a role in risk communication that is independent of the information per se. Practical implications – The relationship between people and civic agencies and the information provided must be accommodated in planning risk communication. The analysis provides an evidence-based framework for the development of risk communication strategies based on community engagement principles. Originality/value – This is the first time this multi-level model has been applied to natural hazards and contributes to understanding the contingent nature of the risk communication process.

Disaster relief work: an assessment of training effectiveness.

Fundamental to disaster readiness planning is developing training strategies to compensate for the limited opportunities available for acquiring actual disaster response experience. With regard to communication, decision making and integrated emergency management response, the need to develop mental models capable of reconciling knowledge of multiple goals with the collective expertise of those responding represents a significant challenge for training. This paper explores the utility of the assessment centre as a developmental resource capable of achieving this goal. In addition to providing multiple, expertly evaluated simulations to facilitate the development and practice of specific skills, the ability of assessment centre methodology to promote tacit knowledge and self‐efficacy renders it an appropriate vehicle for developing the mental models that underpin the core disaster management competencies of situational awareness and naturalistic and team decision making.