Duarte Oom

Relationships between Human Population Density and Burned Area at Continental and Global Scales

We explore the large spatial variation in the relationship between population density and burned area, using continental-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) based on 13 years of satellite-derived burned area maps from the global fire emissions database (GFED) and the human population density from the gridded population of the world (GPW 2005). Significant relationships are observed over 51.5% of the global land area, and the area affected varies from continent to continent: population density has a significant impact on fire over most of Asia and Africa but is important in explaining fire over < 22% of Europe and Australia. Increasing population density is associated with both increased and decreased in fire. The nature of the relationship depends on land-use: increasing population density is associated with increased burned are in rangelands but with decreased burned area in croplands. Overall, the relationship between population density and burned area is non-monotonic: burned area initially increases with population density and then decreases when population density exceeds a threshold. These thresholds vary regionally. Our study contributes to improved understanding of how human activities relate to burned area, and should contribute to a better estimate of atmospheric emissions from biomass burning.

Religious Affiliation Modulates Weekly Cycles of Cropland Burning in Sub-Saharan Africa

Vegetation burning is a common land management practice in Africa, where fire is used for hunting, livestock husbandry, pest control, food gathering, cropland fertilization, and wildfire prevention. Given such strong anthropogenic control of fire, we tested the hypotheses that fire activity displays weekly cycles, and that the week day with the fewest fires depends on regionally predominant religious affiliation. We also analyzed the effect of land use (anthrome) on weekly fire cycle significance. Fire density (fire counts.km-2) observed per week day in each region was modeled using a negative binomial regression model, with fire counts as response variable, region area as offset and a structured random effect to account for spatial dependence. Anthrome (settled, cropland, natural, rangeland), religion (Christian, Muslim, mixed) week day, and their 2-way and 3-way interactions were used as independent variables. Models were also built separately for each anthrome, relating regional fire density with week day and religious affiliation. Analysis revealed a significant interaction between religion and week day, i.e. regions with different religious affiliation (Christian, Muslim) display distinct weekly cycles of burning. However, the religion vs. week day interaction only is significant for croplands, i.e. fire activity in African croplands is significantly lower on Sunday in Christian regions and on Friday in Muslim regions. Magnitude of fire activity does not differ significantly among week days in rangelands and in natural areas, where fire use is under less strict control than in croplands. These findings can contribute towards improved specification of ignition patterns in regional/global vegetation fire models, and may lead to more accurate meteorological and chemical weather forecasting.

Highlighting Biome-Specific Sensitivity of Fire Size Distributions to Time-Gap Parameter Using a New Algorithm for Fire Event Individuation

Detailed spatial-temporal characterization of individual fire dynamics using remote sensing data is important to understand fire-environment relationships, to support landscape-scale fire risk management, and to obtain improved statistics on fire size distributions over broad areas. Previously, individuation of events to quantify fire size distributions has been performed with the flood-fill algorithm. A key parameter of such algorithms is the time-gap used to cluster spatially adjacent fire-affected pixels and declare them as belonging to the same event. Choice of a time-gap to define a fire event entails several assumptions affecting the degree of clustering/fragmentation of the individual events. We evaluate the impact of different time-gaps on the number, size and spatial distribution of active fire clusters, using a new algorithm. The information produced by this algorithm includes number, size, and ignition date of active fire clusters. The algorithm was tested at a global scale using active fire observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Active fire cluster size distributions were characterized with the Gini coefficient, and the impact of changing time-gap values was analyzed on a 0.5° cell grid. As expected, the number of active fire clusters decreased and their mean size increased with the time-gap value. The largest sensitivity of fire size distributions to time-gap was observed in African tropical savannas and, to a lesser extent, in South America, Southeast Asia, and eastern Siberia. Sensitivity of fire individuation, and thus Gini coefficient values, to time-gap demonstrate the difficulty of individuating fire events in tropical savannas, where coalescence of flame fronts with distinct ignition locations and dates is very common, and fire size distributions strongly depend on algorithm parameterization. Thus, caution should be exercised when attempting to individualize fire events, characterizing their size distributions, and addressing their management implications, particularly in the African savannas.

Burned Area Mapping in the Brazilian Savanna Using a One-Class Support Vector Machine Trained by Active Fires

We used the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) active fire data (375 m spatial resolution) to automatically extract multispectral samples and train a One-Class Support Vector Machine for burned area mapping, and applied the resulting classification algorithm to 300-m spatial resolution imagery from the Project for On-Board Autonomy-Vegetation (PROBA-V). The active fire data were screened to prevent extraction of unrepresentative burned area samples and combined with surface reflectance bi-weekly composites to produce burned area maps. The procedure was applied over the Brazilian Cerrado savanna, validated with reference maps obtained from Landsat images and compared with the Collection 6 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) Burned Area product (MCD64A1) Results show that the algorithm developed improved the detection of small-sized scars and displayed results more similar to the reference data than MCD64A1. Unlike active fire-based region growing algorithms, the proposed approach allows for the detection and mapping of burn scars without active fires, thus eliminating a potential source of omission error. The burned area mapping approach presented here should facilitate the development of operational-automated burned area algorithms, and is very straightforward for implementation with other sensors.

Spatiotemporal trends of area burnt in the Iberian Peninsula, 1975–2013

In Portugal and Spain, fire regimes have been significantly altered due to changes in anthropogenic and climatic factors. The development of a fire management strategy should take into account the past trends of fire incidence. We analyse the spatial and temporal trends of burned area in the Iberian Peninsula, merging four decades of forest fire data from the two countries. Theil-Sen slope and a spatial version of Mann-Kendall test are used to test the significance of trends. Excluding some small cases, all significant clusters in Spain correspond to regions of decreasing trends of burnt area. Portugal exhibits contrasting trends, with a large cluster of increasing trend of burnt area in the northwestern part of the country and a large cluster of decreasing trend in central Portugal. A regression analysis performed between the burnt area and the Daily Severity Rating (DSR), a measure of fire suppression difficulty, for the largest significant clusters reveals that climatic factors explain only in part the burnt area trends. Anthropogenic factors also play an important role. In northwestern Spain, fire suppression has contributed to a decreasing trend of burnt area even if the area of forest and the population has increased in the last decades. In central Portugal, the decreasing trend in burnt area is mostly related to the population decrease and the rural abandonment. Regarding northwestern Portugal, it is a region where agriculture is the dominant land cover type and the urban area doubled since 1990. This is indicative of an extending urban-rural interface, which contributes to an increase in fire incidence.