Dudley L. Poston

Socioeconomic development, family planning, and fertility in China

The relationships between socioeconomic development family planning and fertility among the 28 subregions of China circa 1982 were examined. The dependent variable was the total fertility rate in 1981. The 17 development variables include many of the social economic and demographic factors shown in earlier studies to be influential in accounting for fertility among the Chinese subregions. Table 1 presents means and standard deviations for the total fertility rate (TFR) the 17 development variables and the 11 family planning variables. The total fertility rate in 1981 had an average value among the 28 areas of 2.69 varying from lows of 1.32 in Shanghai 1.59 in Beijing and 1.65 in Tianjin to highs of 4.36 in Guizhou 4.12 in Ningxia and 4.10 in Guangxi. The relative effects of the varibles on fertility varied considerably. 4 of the family planning variables had the highest correlations: the first-birth rate (-0.92) the contraceptive use rate (-0.86) the birth planning rate (-0.83) and the 1-child certificate holder rate (-0.82). 8 socioeconomic development variables had correlations with fertility of -0.60 or higher and an additional 5 had correlations between -0.50 and -0.60. 3 separate tests of the theoretical model indicated consistently strong negative direct effects of family planning behavior and weak direct effects of family planning costs. Structural development had strong negative direct effects on fertility when it was introduced in an equation with rural quality of life; it had reduced effects when used in an equation with a development index gauging female status. The direct negative effects of quality of life on fertility were about the same as those of structural development but the 2 development indexes were not used in the same equation due to high collinearity. In regard to indirect effects of development on fertility only the female status index had high negative indirect effects through family planning behavior. All 4 development indexes had trivial indirect effects via the combined path through family planning costs and family planning behavior. The findings essentially are consistent with other analyzes.

Academic Performance and Personality Traits of Chinese Children: "Onlies" versus Others'

This study was undertaken to determine whether the academic and personality outcomes of only children in China are similar to those of only children in the West. Several reviews of the extensive Western literature indicate that only children are remarkably similar to children with siblings. The few differences between them are concentrated in academic areas, where only children have the advantage. In China few children grew up without siblings until 1979, when to one-child policy was initiated. Since then, over 90% of newly formed families in the large urban areas have only one child. The incidence of one-child families in the rural areas is much smaller. The results of our 1987 survey of 1,460 schoolchildren and their parents and teachers, in the urban and rural areas of Changchun, a large industrial city in Jilin Province in northeastern China, contain many findings similar to those of surveys in the West, with one exception. Among urban children, those without siblings have higher academic scores than those with siblings, but these advantages are not found among rural children. Moreover, when only children are compared to firstborns, no differences are found once appropriate background controls are introduced. Also consistent with Western results, only children do not appear to differ from children with siblings in terms of two personality dimensions representing childhood adjustment in China, as judged by both their mothers and teachers.

The Global Distribution of the Overseas Chinese Around 1990

Chinese emigrants began to move to other Asian countries particularly in Southeast Asia thousands of years ago. Large numbers of Chinese migrated to virtually every country of the world during the 19th and early 20th centuries. There were almost 37 million overseas Chinese in 136 countries around 1990 a growth of about 10 million since early 1980 or an average annual rate of 2.7%. At that rate the number of overseas Chinese would double to about 74 million in 26 years. Of these about 32.3 million or 88% reside in 32 Asian countries. Two-thirds live in 4 countries: there are 7.3 million Chinese in Indonesia 6 million in Thailand 5.7 million in Hong Kong and 5.5 million in Malaysia. In addition to these 4 Asian countries the 10 countries with the largest overseas Chinese populations include 4 additional Asian countries and 2 North American countries. The remaining 10% a little more than 3.5 million Chinese reside in 126 other countries. In 4 countries they represent more than 10% of the total population: in Malaysia 30%; in Brunei 18%; in Nauru 18%; and in Thailand 10%. Today Australia Canada New Zealand and the United States are the main host countries to Chinese international migration. Immigration however is now strictly limited in many countries.

The Current and Projected Distribution of the Elderly and Eldercare in the People's Republic of China

China is the most populous country in the world, with a population in 1999 of nearly 1.27 billion. Of even greater interest, Chinas elderly population (persons age 60 and older) is about 22% (or more than 128 million) of all the elderly living in the world. By 2050, China is projected to have only 14% of the worlds people but will have 21% of the worlds elderly. This will occur because of the rapidity with which Chinas age structure will shift toward the older years. In this article, the authors consider the major factor responsible for Chinas very large current and projected numbers of elderly, namely, the dramatic fertility transition experienced since the 1970s. The authors also discuss the very heavy dependency burden on Chinas producing population and show that the burden will get even heavier in the decades ahead.

The Demographic and Socioeconomic Composition of China’s Ethnic Minorities

Although demographers have recently devoted considerable attention to investigating the population of the People’s Republic of China, few have studied China’s minority populations. In great measure, most of the research on Chinese minorities conducted by Chinese and non-Chinese scholars pertains to specific minority groups [1]. Much of the work by Chinese scholars has focused on ethnodemographic analyses of field surveys carried out among specific minority populations. This work provides us with detailed social histories of these groups and classification of the minority groups according to their predominant forms of sustenance organization, marriage norms and patterns, religious and cultural orientations, and linguistic practices (Lu 1986). However, since the various studies were conducted by many different scholars, the research has lacked standardization in concepts and methodology and the findings are not directly comparable from one group to the next. Analysis of the demographic composition of the Chinese minorities has focused mainly on their fertility patterns (e.g., Qiu and He 1984; Li et al. 1984; Jia and Poston 1987). Other features of socioeconomic and demographic composition have received scant attention.

SON PREFERENCE AND FERTILITY IN CHINA

This paper examines the effect of son preference on the hazards of having a second and a third birth. With data from the Two-per-thousand National Sample Survey on Fertility and Contraception conducted in 1988 by the State Family Planning Commission of China, the hazard of having a second birth among 62+ thousand married women who have had a first birth, and the hazard of having a third birth among 43+ thousand married women who have had two births was examined. These two hazards (i.e. the hazard of moving from the first to the second birth, and the hazard of moving from the second to the third birth) were analysed by estimating Cox proportional hazard models. The major covariate in the first analysis is whether or not the first-born was a daughter. In the second analysis the main covariate is whether both of the first two children were girls. In both models seven covariates known to have independent effects on the transition to a second (or third) birth are controlled for, namely, whether the woman is a Han, whether she is a farmer, her age at the birth of the first (or second) child, whether she had her first (or second) birth prior to the initiation in 1979 of the one-child policy, and three dummy variables reflecting her level of education. The results show the important influence of son preference on the hazard of having another birth.

Physical, achievement and personality characteristics of Chinese children

The physical, achievement, and personality characteristics of Chinese schoolchildren are evaluated. The results of two surveys of Chinese schoolchildren, conducted in Beijing and Jilin Province, are presented. In the Beijing sample, the differences between only children and others were small but statistically significant, with the only children having higher scores in achievement and physical size. In the Jilin Province sample, the differences between only children and others were also small but significant. These differences were found entirely in physical characteristics, with only children being smaller, perhaps because the only children in the Jilin sample were much younger than the non-only children. Analyses of the combined sample of Beijing and Jilin schoolchildren indicated that the only-child advantages in achievement were found among children from urban families, not rural peasant families. While significant differences in height and weight were found in all three samples, none of the results indicated a significant difference in the proportion of body fat. None of the analyses indicated that only children had undesirable personalities, as judged by teachers and mothers.

Patterns of Economic Attainment of Foreign-Born Male Workers in the United States.

This article is concerned with the economic attainment patterns of foreign-born male workers in the United States in 1980. The economic attainment patterns of males born in 92 countries of the world are examined and are compared among themselves, as well as among the seven principal U.S.-born groups of Anglos, Afro-American, Mexican Americans, Puerto Ricans, Cuban Americans, Asian Americans, and American Indians. For all foreign-born groups, the article examines the degree to which such individual-level factors as educational attainment, labor market experience, and so forth account for their variation in economic attainment. We conclude that although microlevel characteristics are not the complete answer, they are important for most foreign-born populations in explaining their variation in earnings.

International Variability in Childlessness: A Descriptive and Analytical Study

This article provides a descriptive account of international trends and variability in marital childlessness. Childlessness data, gathered largely from census questions on number of children ever born, are presented for 65 countries. In discussing trends in childlessness, we introduce several procedures for measuring childlessness that are closely analogous to standard fertility measures. We also set forth a socioeconomic development model that suggests that involuntary childessness predominates among developing countries, and voluntary childlessness among developed countries. Our findings indicate considerable international variability in marital rates of childlessness.

Quality of life, intellectual development and behavioural characteristics of single children in China: evidence from a 1980 survey in Changsha, Hunan Province.

This paper reports the results of a June 1980 survey of 1069 children in Changsha, Hunan Province. The data have been unavailable previously either in Chinese or in English. In general, they suggest that comparisons of single children with children from multiple-child families in China regarding quality of life, intellectual development, and behavioural traits are similar to comparisons conducted in the United States and other western countries. As in many western studies, single children in China appear to have a better quality of life than children with siblings. Regarding intellectual development, single children in China perform better than those with siblings, a finding which is consonant with the family intactness model of Falbo. Single children in Changsha are little different from ones from multiple-child families on various aspects of behaviour, and are more co-operative and less hostile. These findings are the opposite of those of the Shanghai study, the other major analysis of single children in China; the Shanghai survey indicated that single children were not as well-behaved as those with siblings, a finding that caused some concern among Chinese social scientists. To the extent that the findings of the Changsha study, and not those of the Shanghai study, reflect the situation of single children in China, this could mean that the one-child family planning campaign may not be having a negative impact on childrens behaviour.