Dulce Saura

Emulation, Prevention and Social Interaction in Consumption Dynamics

In this paper we show that the role of diversity, local interactions and global endogenous change at the level of social standards might be crucial in understanding the evolution of consumption patterns in modern economies. We propose an evolutionary model from which consumption dynamics can be analyzed as global properties emerging from the endogenous transformation of a society inhabited by boundedly rational interactive consumers. This work aspires to take a modest step forward in the direction of an evolutionary theory of demand change.

The nearest neighbour method as a test for detecting complex dynamics in financial series. An empirical application

In this paper the nearest neighbour forecasting method is applied to five series taken from the US Stock Market, with the aim of testing whether these display some kind of chaotic dynamics. The main result of this analysis is that the hypothesis may indeed be accepted for all five series. Furthermore, this paper has tried to test the usefulness of the method in terms of the quality of the predictions, with the results obtained being satisfactory in all cases.