Duncan Lawrence

More Trees, More Poverty? The Socioeconomic Effects of Tree Plantations in Chile, 2001-2011

Tree plantations play a controversial role in many nations’ efforts to balance goals for economic development, ecological conservation, and social justice. This paper seeks to contribute to this debate by analyzing the socioeconomic impact of such plantations. We focus our study on Chile, a country that has experienced extraordinary growth of industrial tree plantations. Our analysis draws on a unique dataset with longitudinal observations collected in 180 municipal territories during 2001–2011. Employing panel data regression techniques, we find that growth in plantation area is associated with higher than average rates of poverty during this period.

When lives are put on hold: Lengthy asylum processes decrease employment among refugees

Refugees waiting an additional year for their asylum claim decision face a 20% reduction in their subsequent employment rate. European governments are struggling with the biggest refugee crisis since World War II, but there exists little evidence regarding how the management of the asylum process affects the subsequent integration of refugees in the host country. We provide new causal evidence about how one central policy parameter, the length of time that refugees wait in limbo for a decision on their asylum claim, affects their subsequent economic integration. Exploiting exogenous variation in wait times and registry panel data covering refugees who applied in Switzerland between 1994 and 2004, we find that one additional year of waiting reduces the subsequent employment rate by 4 to 5 percentage points, a 16 to 23% drop compared to the average rate. This deleterious effect is remarkably stable across different subgroups of refugees stratified by gender, origin, age at arrival, and assigned language region, a pattern consistent with the idea that waiting in limbo dampens refugee employment through psychological discouragement, rather than a skill atrophy mechanism. Overall, our results suggest that marginally reducing the asylum waiting period can help reduce public expenditures and unlock the economic potential of refugees by increasing employment among this vulnerable population.

Improving refugee integration through data-driven algorithmic assignment

Data-driven refugee assignment The continuing refugee crisis has made it necessary for governments to find ways to resettle individuals and families in host communities. Bansak et al. used a machine learning approach to develop an algorithm for geographically placing refugees to optimize their overall employment rate. The authors developed and tested the algorithm on segments of registry data from the United States and Switzerland. The algorithm improved the employment prospects of refugees in the United States by ∼40% and in Switzerland by ∼75%. Science, this issue p. 325 A machine learning–based algorithm for assigning refugees can improve their employment prospects over current approaches. Developed democracies are settling an increased number of refugees, many of whom face challenges integrating into host societies. We developed a flexible data-driven algorithm that assigns refugees across resettlement locations to improve integration outcomes. The algorithm uses a combination of supervised machine learning and optimal matching to discover and leverage synergies between refugee characteristics and resettlement sites. The algorithm was tested on historical registry data from two countries with different assignment regimes and refugee populations, the United States and Switzerland. Our approach led to gains of roughly 40 to 70%, on average, in refugees’ employment outcomes relative to current assignment practices. This approach can provide governments with a practical and cost-efficient policy tool that can be immediately implemented within existing institutional structures.

expanding Prenatal Care to Unauthorized Immigrant Women and the Effects on Infant Health

OBJECTIVE To measure the effect of access to prenatal care on unauthorized and low-income, new legal permanent resident immigrant women and their offspring. METHODS We used a difference-in-differences design that leverages the staggered rollout of Emergency Medicaid Plus by county from 2008 to 2013 as a natural experiment to estimate the effect on health service utilization for women and health outcomes for their infants. Regular Medicaid pregnancies were used as an additional control in a triple difference design. RESULTS Our sample included pregnancies covered by Emergency Medicaid (35,182), Emergency Medicaid Plus (12,510), and Medicaid (166,054). After expansion of access to prenatal care, there was an increase in prenatal visits (7.2 more visits, 95% CI 6.45-7.96), receipt of adequate prenatal care (28% increased rate, CI 26-31), rates of diabetes screening (61% increased rate, CI 56-66), and fetal ultrasonograms (74% increased rate, CI 72-76). Maternal access to prenatal care was also associated with an increased number of well child visits (0.24 more visits, CI 0.07-0.41), increased rates of recommended screenings and vaccines (0.04 increased probability, CI 0.002-0.074), and reduced infant mortality (-1.01/1,000, CI -1.42 to -0.60) and rates of extremely low birth weight (less than 1,000 g) (-1.33/1,000, CI -2.44 to -0.21). CONCLUSION Our results provide evidence of increased utilization and improved health outcomes for unauthorized immigrants and their children who are U.S. citizens after introduction of prenatal care expansion in Oregon. This study contributes to the debate around reauthorization of the Childrens Health Insurance Program in 2017.

A randomized controlled design reveals barriers to citizenship for low-income immigrants

Significance We provide a randomized test of policy interventions that address barriers to naturalization for low-income immigrants. We find that offering fee vouchers doubles the naturalization application rate among low-income immigrants, but nudges often used by service providers did not increase applications among fee waiver-eligible immigrants below the poverty level. Our results help guide policy efforts to address the problem of low naturalization rates. The current high fees prevent a considerable share of low-income immigrants who desire to become Americans from submitting their applications. Lowering the fees should therefore increase naturalization rates and generate long-run benefits for new Americans and their communities. However, the poorest immigrants face deeper challenges to naturalization that are not easily overcome with the low-cost nudges we tested. Citizenship endows legal protections and is associated with economic and social gains for immigrants and their communities. In the United States, however, naturalization rates are relatively low. Yet we lack reliable knowledge as to what constrains immigrants from applying. Drawing on data from a public/private naturalization program in New York, this research provides a randomized controlled study of policy interventions that address these constraints. The study tested two programmatic interventions among low-income immigrants who are eligible for citizenship. The first randomly assigned a voucher that covers the naturalization application fee among immigrants who otherwise would have to pay the full cost of the fee. The second randomly assigned a set of behavioral nudges, similar to outreach efforts used by service providers, among immigrants whose incomes were low enough to qualify them for a federal waiver that eliminates the application fee. Offering the fee voucher increased naturalization application rates by about 41%, suggesting that application fees act as a barrier for low-income immigrants who want to become US citizens. The nudges to encourage the very poor to apply had no discernible effect, indicating the presence of nonfinancial barriers to naturalization.

Determinants of refugee naturalization in the United States

Significance Despite the scale of the US refugee resettlement program, policymakers and the public lack systematic information on how refugees adapt to their new environment. We focus on naturalization as a key measure of integration and draw on administrative data to provide direct estimates of the naturalization rates among refugees. Our results show that, on average, refugees acquire citizenship faster than other lawful permanent residents. We also identify the set of factors that promote or constrain naturalization among refugees. These findings have implications for policymakers seeking to improve the integration of refugees within the United States. The United States operates the world’s largest refugee resettlement program. However, there is almost no systematic evidence on whether refugees successfully integrate into American society over the long run. We address this gap by drawing on linked administrative data to directly measure a long-term integration outcome: naturalization rates. Assessing the full population of refugees resettled between 2000 and 2010, we find that refugees naturalize at high rates: 66% achieved citizenship by 2015. This rate is substantially higher than among other immigrants who became eligible for citizenship during the same period. We also find significant heterogeneity in naturalization rates. Consistent with the literature on immigration more generally, sociodemographic characteristics condition the likelihood of naturalization. Women, refugees with longer residency, and those with higher education levels are more likely to obtain citizenship. National origins also matter. While refugees from Iran, Iraq, and Somalia naturalize at higher rates, those from Burma, Ukraine, Vietnam, and Liberia naturalize at lower rates. We also find naturalization success is significantly shaped by the initial resettlement location. Placing refugees in areas that are urban, have lower rates of unemployment, and have a larger share of conationals increases the likelihood of acquiring citizenship. These findings suggest pathways to promote refugee integration by targeting interventions and by optimizing the geographic placement of refugees.

Oregon’s Expansion of Prenatal Care Improved Utilization Among Immigrant Women

Objectives To determine whether expanding Emergency Medicaid to cover prenatal care in Oregon affected maternal health outcomes for unauthorized immigrants. Methods This study takes place in Oregon from 2003 to 2015 and includes all Emergency Medicaid and Medicaid claims for women aged 12–51 with a pregnancy related claim. To isolate the effect of expanding access to prenatal care, we utilized a difference-in-differences approach that exploits the staggered rollout of the prenatal care program. The primary outcome was a composite measure of severe maternal morbidity and mortality. Additional outcomes include adequacy of prenatal care, detection of pregnancy complications and birth outcomes. Results A total of 213,746 pregnancies were included, with 35,182 covered by Emergency Medicaid, 12,510 covered by Emergency Medicaid Plus (with prenatal care), and 166,054 covered by standard Medicaid. Emergency Medicaid Plus coverage did not affect severe maternal morbidity (all pregnancies 0.05%, CI − 0.29; 0.39; high-risk pregnancies 2.20%, CI − 0.47; 4.88). The program did reduce inadequate care among all pregnancies (− 31.75%, 95% CI − 34.47; − 29.02) and among high risk pregnancies (− 38.60%, CI − 44.17; − 33.02) and increased diagnosis of gestational diabetes (6.24%, CI 4.36; 8.13; high risk pregnancies 10.48%, CI 5.87; 15.08), and poor fetal growth (7.37%, CI 5.69; 9.05; high risk pregnancies 5.34%, CI 1.00; 9.68). The program also increased diagnosis of pre-existing diabetes mellitus (all pregnancies 2.93%, CI 2.16; 3.69), hypertensive diseases of pregnancy (all pregnancies 1.28%, CI 0.52; 2.04) and a history of preterm birth (all pregnancies 0.87%, CI 0.27; 1.47). Conclusions for Practice Oregon’s prenatal care expansion program produced positive effects for unauthorized immigrant women and their children.

Providing driver’s licenses to unauthorized immigrants in California improves traffic safety

Significance Several states have experimented with more inclusive policies toward immigrants. There is little empirical evidence related to their impact. Our study examines the short-term traffic safety effects of one of the largest-scale state policies focused on the integration of unauthorized immigrants: California’s extension of driving privileges to unauthorized immigrants. We find that this policy did not increase the total number of accidents or the occurrence of fatal accidents, but it did reduce the likelihood of hit and run accidents, thereby improving traffic safety and reducing costs for California drivers. Our findings have important implications for policymakers: providing unauthorized immigrants with access to driver’s licenses can create positive externalities for the communities in which they live. The integration of immigrants presents a major challenge for policymakers in the United States. In an effort to improve integration, several US states recently have implemented laws that provide driver’s licenses to unauthorized immigrants. These new laws have sparked widespread debate, but we lack evidence on the traffic safety impact of these policies. We examine the short-term effects of the largest-scale policy shift, California’s Assembly Bill 60 (AB60), under which more than 600,000 licenses were issued in the first year of implementation in 2015 alone. We find that, contrary to concerns voiced by opponents of the law, AB60 has had no discernible short-term effect on the number of accidents. The law primarily allowed existing unlicensed drivers to legalize their driving. We also find that, although AB60 had no effect on the rate of fatal accidents, it did decrease the rate of hit and run accidents, suggesting that the policy reduced fears of deportation and vehicle impoundment. Hit and run behaviors often delay emergency assistance, increase insurance premiums, and leave victims with significant out of pocket expenses. Overall, the results suggest that AB60 provides an example of how states can facilitate the integration of immigrants while creating positive externalities for the communities in which they live.