Duncan Ray

Targeting and evaluating biodiversity conservation action within fragmented landscapes: an approach based on generic focal species and least-cost networks

The focus of biodiversity conservation is shifting to larger spatial scales in response to habitat fragmentation and the need to integrate multiple landscape objectives. Conservation strategies increasingly incorporate measures to combat fragmentation such as ecological networks. These are often based on assessment of landscape structure but such approaches fail to capitalise on the potential offered by more ecologically robust assessments of landscape function and connectivity. In this paper, we describe a modelling approach to identifying functional habitat networks and demonstrate its application to a fragmented landscape where policy initiatives seek to improve conditions for woodland biodiversity including increasing woodland cover. Functional habitat networks were defined by identifying suitable habitat and by modelling connectivity using least-cost approaches to account for matrix permeability. Generic focal species (GFS) profiles were developed, in consultation with stakeholders, to represent species with high and moderate sensitivity to fragmentation. We demonstrated how this form of analysis can be used to aid the spatial targeting of conservation actions. This ‘targeted’ action scenario was tested for effectiveness against comparable scenarios, which were based on random and clumped actions within the same landscape. We tested effectiveness using structural metrics, network-based metrics and a published functional connectivity indicator. Targeting actions within networks resulted in the highest mean woodland area and highest connectivity indicator value. Our approach provides an assessment of landscape function by recognising the importance of the landscape matrix. It provides a framework for the targeting and evaluation of alternative conservation options, offering a pragmatic, ecologically-robust solution to a current need in applied landscape ecology.

Decision Support Systems in Forest Management

Numerous decision support systems have been developed for forest management over the past 20 years or more. In this chapter, the authors briefly review some of the more important and recent developments, including examples from North America, Europe, and Asia. In addition to specific systems, we also review some of the more-significant methodological approaches such as artificial neural networks, knowledge-based systems, and multicriteria decision models. A basic conclusion that emerges from this review is that the availability of DSSs in forest management has enabled more-effective analysis of the options for and implications of alternative management approaches for all components of forest ecosystems. The variety of tools described herein, and the approaches taken by the different systems, provide a sample of the possible methods that can be used to help stakeholders and decision makers arrive at reasoned and reasonable decisions.

Integrating the DPSIR approach and the analytic network process for the assessment of forest management strategies.

Introduction Within the scope of forest research there is variety of approaches of handling with SFM. The more “traditionalistic” view which comes from the original understanding of sustained (timber) yield is implemented in modelling sustainable timber production systems and sustainable forest economy systems respectively. On the other hand, an eco-physiological understanding of SFM is keeping up resulting in modelling of systemic states and dynamics as functions of ecosystem processes and substance flows. In this context, methods both serving communicational demands and dealing with multiple criteria and objectives gained in importance to go beyond the spheres where modelling approaches as described above convincingly operate.

Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?

Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures.

Participatory development of decision support systems: which features of the process lead to improved uptake and better outcomes?

Decision support systems (DSSs) are important in decision-making environments with conflicting interests. Many DSSs developed have not been used in practice. Experts argue that these tools do not respond to real user needs and that the inclusion of stakeholders in the development process is the solution. However, it is not clear which features of participatory development of DSSs result in improved uptake and better outcomes. A review of papers, reporting on case studies where DSSs and other decision tools (information systems, software and scenario tools) were developed with elements of participation, was carried out. The cases were analysed according to a framework created as part of this research; it includes criteria to evaluate the development process and the outcomes. Relevant aspects to consider in the participatory development processes include establishing clear objectives, timing and location of the process; keeping discussions on track; favouring participation and interaction of individuals and groups; and challenging creative thinking of the tool and future scenarios. The case studies that address these issues show better outcomes; however, there is a large degree of uncertainty concerning them because developers have typically neither asked participants about their perceptions of the processes and resultant tools nor have they monitored the use and legacy of the tools over the long term.

Institutional factors and opportunities for adapting European forest management to climate change

Abstract Despite the fact that the institutional environment is acknowledged to influence the implementation of regional adaptations of forest management to climate change, there are few empirical studies addressing the institutional factors and opportunities of adaptation. Using Ostrom’s institutional analysis and development framework, we aimed to identify : (1) the critical and distinctive characteristics of the forest resource and institutional context that may determine how climate change-adaptive forest management measures are implemented and (2) the opportunities for implementing the planned adaptation measures. The analysis is performed on ten European case study regions which differed in many resource-dependent factors, policy arena factors and incentives for changes. The main factors influencing the adaptation are the ownership pattern, the level of policy formation and the nature of forest goods and services. Opportunities for adaptation are driven by the openness of the forest management planning processes to the stakeholders participation, the degree to which business as usual management is projected to be non-satisfactory in the future, and by the number and nature of obstacles to adaptation. Promoting local self-governance mechanisms and the participation of the external stakeholders in forest management planning or in the regional forest or climate change policy adaptation may be a way of overcoming path dependency, behavioural obstacles and potential policy failures in implementing adaptation. The study argues that both climate change belief systems and political participation are important to explain adaptation to climate change when multiple decision-making levels are at stake.

New climate change information modifies frames and decisions of decision makers: an exploratory study in forest planning

Information helps decision makers to address and to decide about environmental problems. In the context of climate change adaptation, often knowledge is missing on how the available information from impact models affects the decision-making process. The main aim of this study was to explore the extent of ambiguity and how new climate change information influenced decision of forest planners. We investigated changes in decisions of planners about forestry actions representing species choice and forest tourism and expiry dates of these actions leading to environmental constraints in the provision of ecosystem services. Forest planners evaluated expiry dates using four forest ecosystem services: forest production, stand yield class, sequestered carbon, and potential tourism. Data were collected during workshops with eleven forest planners from three forest districts in Scotland. Presented climate change information modified the understanding and frames of planners about forestry actions assessed with accompanying expiry dates. Changes in the frames of planners often result in both earlier and later expiry dates. Ambiguity of planners was found to be dependent on diversity in frames and difficulty in evaluating multiple ecosystem services. These findings imply that due to ambiguity forest planners might find it hard to choose climate change adaptation measures and researchers can struggle to convince planners with new research findings.

A forest habitat network for the Atlantic Oakwoods in Highland region, Scotland

Summary The need to conserve biological diversity and ensure the future viability and integrity of Atlantic oakwoods in a fragmented landscape has led to strategies that facilitate a more holistic view of biodiversity conservation across extensive areas. The Scottish Forestry Strategy contains a major aspiration to develop forest habitat networks through the restoration and improvement of existing woodland and the expansion of new woodland. The Forest Research landscape ecology model BEETLE (Biological and Environmental Evaluation Tools for Landscape Ecology) uses a focal species approach to assess the functional connectivity of habitat within the wider landscape matrix. This model has been used to predict the current habitat network for Atlantic oakwood specialists in the Highland region of Scotland. The analysis outputs are presented with an approach to help practitioners and planners visualise the opportunities to target expansion, conversion or restoration of Atlantic oakwoods and their intrinsic biodiversity.

Conserving Forest Biodiversity: Recent Approaches in UK Forest Planning and Management

The need to combat woodland loss and fragmentation are key objectives for forestry and biodiversity conservation strategies in the UK. Conservation action has often been centred on the protection and management of individual sites with limited, often ad hoc, action within the surrounding landscape. However, woodland biodiversity conservation efforts, including restoration and re-creation measures, are beginning to be scaled-up to the landscape level in an attempt to address habitat loss and fragmentation. There is also a need to integrate biodiversity goals with other objectives which are planned at the landscape scale, marking a significant shift from segregated to integrated planning. An assessment of landscape structure and function is needed to target conservation action and to evaluate landscape change. This will ensure that the appropriate action is applied in the most effective location. It will also contribute to the development of multi-use landscape plans ensuring biodiversity needs are adequately represented. The aim of this chapter is to present examples of recent approaches to landscape-scale forest planning in the UK. These will illustrate the application of both functional approaches, utilising focal species and estimates of functional connectivity, and also structural approaches, based on the use of landscape metrics, to target and evaluate potential biodiversity conservation action. These examples have been used to target strategic conservation action at a country scale, target specific locations for woodland planting schemes and assess the performance of a woodland planting policy to combat habitat fragmentation. They also demonstrate that the appropriate choice of a functional or structural approach is dependent upon the issue being addressed.

A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change

Adapting the management of forest resources to climate change involves addressing several crucial aspects to provide a valid basis for decision making. These include the knowledge and belief of decision makers, the mapping of management options for the current as well as anticipated future bioclimatic and socioeconomic conditions, and the ways decisions are evaluated and made. We investigate the adaptive management process and develop a framework including these three aspects, thus providing a structured way to analyze the challenges and opportunities of managing forests in the face of climate change. We apply the framework for a range of case studies that differ in the way climate and its impacts are projected to change, the available management options, and how decision makers develop, update, and use their beliefs about climate change scenarios to select among adaptation options, each being optimal for a certain climate change scenario. We describe four stylized types of decision-making processes that differ in how they (1) take into account uncertainty and new information on the state and development of the climate and (2) evaluate alternative management decisions: the “no-change,” the “reactive,” the “trend-adaptive,” and the “forward-looking adaptive” decision-making types. Accordingly, we evaluate the experiences with alternative management strategies and recent publications on using Bayesian optimization methods that account for different simulated learning schemes based on varying knowledge, belief, and information. Finally, our proposed framework for identifying adaptation strategies provides solutions for enhancing forest structure and diversity, biomass and timber production, and reducing climate change-induced damages. They are spatially heterogeneous, reflecting the diversity in growing conditions and socioeconomic settings within Europe.