Dwayne R.J. Moore

A comparison of model performance for six quantitative structure-activity relationship packages that predict acute toxicity to fish

Some regulatory programs rely on quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models to predict toxic effects to biota. Many currently existing QSAR models can predict the effects of a wide range of substances to biota, particularly aquatic biota. The difficulty for regulatory programs is in choosing the appropriate QSAR model or models for application in their new and existing substances programs. We evaluated model performance of six QSAR modeling packages: Ecological Structure Activity Relationship (ECOSAR), TOPKAT, a Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN), a Computational Neural Network (CNN), the QSAR components of the Assessment Tools for the Evaluation of Risk (ASTER) system, and the Optimized Approach Based on Structural Indices Set (OASIS) system. Using a testing data set of 130 substances that had not been included in the training data sets of the QSAR models under consideration, we compared model predictions for 96-h median lethal concentrations (LC50s) to fathead minnows to the corresponding measured toxicity values available in the AQUIRE database. The testing data set was heavily weighted with neutral organics of low molecular weight and functionality. Many of the testing data set substances also had a nonpolar narcosis mode of action and/or were chlorinated. A variety of statistical measures (correlation coefficient, slope and intercept from a linear regression analysis, mean absolute and squared difference between log prediction and log measured toxicity, and the percentage of predictions within factors of 2, 5, 10, 100, and 1,000 of measured toxicity values) indicated that the PNN model had the best model performance for the full testing data set of 130 substances. The rank order of the remainder of the models depended on the statistical measure employed. TOPKAT also had excellent model performance for substances within its optimum prediction space. Only 37% of the substances in the testing data set, however, fell within this optimum prediction space.

Estimating the Toxicity of Pesticide Mixtures to Aquatic Organisms: A Review

ABSTRACT A major difficulty in addressing chemical mixtures through legislation or regulations revolves around our limited understanding of their potential impacts. This review provides an overview of recent research on pesticide mixture toxicity to aquatic biota and the methods employed to predict toxic effects. The most common approaches are to assume concentration-addition or independent action of chemicals in a mixture. There are a number of cases in the literature of interactions between pesticides. However, models accounting for possible interactions between mixture components are used infrequently. Although results are limited, studies investigating the effects of pesticide mixtures have not demonstrated significant synergism at environmentally relevant concentrations. Based on the results of our review, we conclude that the concentration-addition model is a generally conservative and practical first-tier model for the ecological assessment of pesticide mixtures in aquatic systems.

Dietary exposure of mink (Mustela vison) to fish from the Housatonic River, Berkshire County, Massachusetts, USA: Effects on reproduction, kit growth, and survival

We evaluated the effects of feeding farm-raised mink (Mustela vison) diets containing polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB)-contaminated fish from the Housatonic River (HR; Berkshire County, MA, USA) on adult reproductive performance and kit growth and survival. Diets contained 0.22-3.54% HR fish, providing 0.34-3.7 microg total PCBs (TPCB)/g feed wet wt (3.5-68.5 pg toxic equivalence [TEQ]/g). Female mink were fed diets before breeding through weaning of kits. Twelve kits from each treatment were maintained on their respective diets for an additional 180 d. Dietary PCBs had no effect on the number of offspring produced, gestation period, or other measures of adult reproductive performance. Mink kits exposed to 3.7 microg TPCB/g feed (68.5 pg TEQ/ g) in utero and during lactation had reduced survivability between three and six weeks of age. The lethal concentrations to 10 and 20% of the population (LC10 and LC20, respectively) were estimated to be 0.231 and 0.984 microg TPCB/g feed, respectively. Because inclusion of PCB-contaminated fish that composed approximately 1% of the diet would reduce mink kit survival by 20% or more, it is likely that consumption of up to 30-fold that quantity of HR fish, as could be expected for wild mink, would have an adverse effect on wild mink populations.

Dietary exposure of mink (Mustela vison) to fish from the Housatonic River, Berkshire County, Massachusetts, USA: Effects on organ weights and histology and hepatic concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls and 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin toxic equivalence

The effects of feeding ranch mink (Mustela vison) diets containing polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB)-contaminated fish (88 gold fish [Carassius auratus] weighing a total of 70.3 kg and 16 carp [Cyprinus carpio] weighing a total of 77.3 kg) collected from the Housatonic River (HR; Berkshire County, MA, USA) in October 1999 on organ weights and histology and hepatic concentrations of total PCBs (sigmaPCBs) and 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin toxic equivalence (TEQ) were evaluated. Diets contained 0.22 to 3.54% HR fish, which provided 0.34 to 3.7 microg sigmaPCBs/g feed (3.5-69 pg TEQ/g feed). Female mink were fed the diets eight weeks before breeding through weaning of kits at six weeks of age. Offspring were maintained on their respective diets for an additional 180 d. The dietary concentration of PCBs that caused a decrease in kit survival (3.7 microg EPCBs/g feed [69 pg TEQ/g]) resulted in a maternal hepatic concentration of 3.1 microg sigmaPCBs/g wet weight (218 pg TEQ/g). Organ weights were not consistently affected. Mandibular and maxillary squamous cell proliferation was apparent in 31-week-old juveniles exposed to as low as 0.96 microg sigmaPCBs/g feed (9.2 pg TEQ/g). Juveniles in this treatment group had a liver concentration of 1.7 microg sigmaPCBs/g wet weight (40 pg TEQ/g). Because inclusion of PCB-contaminated fish, which comprised approximately 1% of the diet, resulted in mandibular and maxillary squamous cell proliferation, it is possible that consumption of up to 30-fold that quantity of HR fish, as could be expected for wild mink, would result in more severe lesions characterized by loss of teeth, thus impacting survivability.

Risks of carbamate and organophosphate pesticide mixtures to salmon in the Pacific Northwest.

Salmon populations in the Pacific Northwest are being affected by a variety of environmental stressors including intense fishing pressure, parasites and disease, climatic variability and change, land development, hatchery production, hydropower operations, stormwater runoff, and exposure to toxic contaminants. In recent years, there has been much concern that mixtures of pesticides are causing toxic effects to Pacific salmon. In this study, we compared measured stream water concentrations from 2 monitoring studies conducted in the Pacific Northwest with concentration-response curves derived for inhibition of brain acetylcholinesterase activity in juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) for mixtures of organophosphate (OPs) and carbamate (CBs) pesticides. In the first monitoring study, samples were collected from 2003 to 2007 in salmonid-bearing waters of 5 urban or agricultural watersheds in Washington State. This study was targeted to areas of high pesticide use and generally involved weekly sampling during the pesticide use season. The second monitoring study was the United States Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment that included samples taken from 2003 to 2010 in California, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington. OPs and CBs were frequently detected in both studies. The available monitoring data collected since 2003, however, demonstrates that mixtures of OPs and CBs in surface waters rarely occur at levels capable of producing significant physiological and behavioral effects in Pacific salmon. The observed mixtures never reached concentrations capable of causing mortality. We conclude that mixtures of organophosphates and carbamates do not pose a significant direct risk to Pacific salmon.

The Anna Karenina Principle Applied to Ecological Risk Assessments of Multiple Stressors

Successful ecological risk assessments are all alike; every unsuccessful ecological risk assessment fails in its own way. Tolstoy posited a similar analogy in his novel Anna Karenina: “Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.” By that, Tolstoy meant that for a marriage to be happy, it had to succeed in several key aspects. Failure on even one of these aspects, and the marriage is doomed. In this paper, I argue that the Anna Karenina principle also applies to ecological risk assessments involving multiple stressors. In particular, I argue that multiple stressors assessments and environmental decision making will not have a happy marriage unless the following can be achieved: (1) there must be societal and political buy-in to the assessment and decision-making process; (2) the assessment must have the latitude to consider a wide range of stressors and potential risk management options; (3) there must be a commitment to following a rigorous focusing of the assessment and to expending resources for model development and data collection; and (4) an adaptive management strategy must be adopted wherein risk management actions are undertaken, system response intensively observed and assessed, and revised management actions taken as appropriate. Failure to meet any of the above criteria for success will doom a multiple stressors assessment and prevent its use in effective decision-making.

An Ecological Risk Assessment of Hexachlorobutadiene

Hexachlorobutadiene (HCBD) has never been commercially produced in Canada and was imported in the past for use as a solvent. Anthropogenic activity is linked with the entry of this substance into the environment. While current Canadian sources of HCBD involve low-level releases, potentially they can be numerous. Until recently, the most significant point source of HCBD in Canada appeared to be the Cole Drain, which discharges into the St. Clair River at Sarnia, Ontario, and includes outfalls from an industrial landfill and a few industrial companies. HCBD has been detected in Canadian surface waters, sediments, aquatic organisms and, occasionally, air. Considering the properties of the substance, including its persistence and bioaccumulation characteristics, the environmental risk assessment of HCBD was focused on the aquatic environment. The results of a conservative assessment suggest that there is a risk of harmful effects for benthic organisms exposed to sediments contaminated by HCBD in the most contaminated part of the St. Clair River.

The Ecological Component of Ecological Risk Assessment: Lessons from a Field Experiment

To improve ecological relevance, regulatory agencies are promoting assessments of effects at higher levels of organization, an objective that requires an understanding of current ecological theories. One such theory, hierarchy theory, contends that the effects of a disturbance acting at one level of organization (e.g., population) are not, as a rule, transmitted to higher levels of organization (e.g., community). Conversely, effects at higher levels of organization only occur if lower level variables have been affected. Further, responses to disturbance depend on disturbance history. In this study, I determined the effects of a disturbance treatment at the population, guild, and community levels of organization for vegetation in five wetlands with a disturbance history ranging from highly to rarely disturbed. The 2-year field experiment revealed that the effects of the disturbance treatment were most strongly felt at the population level of organization in wetlands without a history of disturbance. These ...

An Ecological Risk Assessment of Phenol in the Aquatic Environment

A probabilistic ecological risk assessment of phenol was undertaken to determine the risks posed to biota as a result of phenol release to the Canadian environment. A three-tiered approach was used to estimate risks, with progressively more realistic assumptions being applied at each tier. In Canada, the major sources of phenol are municipal wastewater treatment plants, pulp, paper and wood products mills, steel and metal products facilities and refineries. Thus, the highest exposures will occur in receiving waters near these point sources, primarily due to the short half-life of phenol in the aquatic environment. Sensitive aquatic organisms include salmonids (e.g., rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss) and amphibians (e.g., leopard frog Rana pipiens). The results of the risk assessment indicate that species are exposed to elevated levels of phenol near point sources, but these levels represent only a minor risk to aquatic biota.

Derivation of an ambient water quality criterion for mercury: taking account of site-specific conditions.

Mercury is considered to be a serious risk to wildlife. As a result, the Great Lakes Water Quality Initiative and others have developed ambient water quality criteria (AWQC) for the protection of wildlife. These AWQC have been controversial, however, because the AWQC were single values that did not account for site-specific conditions, derivation of the AWQC relied on a single no-observed-adverse-effect level, and the AWQC had an unknown level of conservatism because of reliance on both average and conservative assumptions and uncertainty factors. Rather than develop a single-value AWQC for total mercury, we derived an AWQC model that explicitly incorporates factors controlling bioavailability, methylation rates, and bioaccumulation in the aquatic environment (e.g., pH, dissolved organic carbon). To derive our AWQC model, field data were collected from 31 lakes in Ontario and an additional 10 lakes in Nova Scotia (North America). In the field study, levels of total and methylmercury in water and fish as well as levels of key water quality variables were determined. We conducted multiple-regression analysis to derive a model that estimates mercury levels in prey of mink. Mink are very sensitive to mercury exposure. An independent dataset consisting of 51 water bodies in the United States was then used to confirm the validity and robustness of the AWQC model. Next, we combined the results of chronic-feeding studies with similar protocols and endpoints in a meta-analysis to derive a dose-response curve for mink exposed to mercury in the diet. In the final step, we used a probabilistic risk model to estimate the concentrations of methylmercury in water that would lead to levels in fish sufficient for a 10% probability of exceeding the lethal dose affecting 5% of the mink population. The result is an AWQC equation for mercury for the protection of wildlife that can be used with a variety of site-specific conditions.