E. A. Clark

Twentieth-Century Drought in the Conterminous United States

Abstract Droughts can be characterized by their severity, frequency and duration, and areal extent. Depth–area–duration analysis, widely used to characterize precipitation extremes, provides a basis for the evaluation of drought severity when storm depth is replaced by an appropriate measure of drought severity. Gridded precipitation and temperature data were used to force a physically based macroscale hydrologic model at 1/2° spatial resolution over the continental United States, and construct a drought history from 1920 to 2003 based on the model-simulated soil moisture and runoff. A clustering algorithm was used to identify individual drought events and their spatial extent from monthly summaries of the simulated data. A series of severity–area–duration (SAD) curves were constructed to relate the area of each drought to its severity. An envelope of the most severe drought events in terms of their SAD characteristics was then constructed. The results show that (a) the droughts of the 1930s and 1950s wer...

Correction of Global Precipitation Products for Orographic Effects

Abstract Underestimation of precipitation in topographically complex regions plagues most gauge-based gridded precipitation datasets. Gauge locations are usually in or near population centers, which tend to lie at low elevations relative to the surrounding terrain. For hydrologic modeling purposes, the resulting bias can result in serious underprediction of observed flows. A hydrologic water balance approach to develop a globally consistent correction for the underestimation of gridded precipitation in mountainous regions is described. The adjustment is based on a combination of the catchment water balances and variations of the Budyko E/P versus/P curve. The method overlays streamflow measurements onto watershed boundaries and then performs watershed water balances to determine “true” precipitation. Rather than relying on a modeled runoff ratio, evaporation is estimated using the Budyko curves. The average correction ratios for each of 357 mountainous river basins worldwide are spatially distributed acro...

Preliminary Characterization of SWOT Hydrology Error Budget and Global Capabilities

River discharge and lake water storage are critical elements of land surface hydrology, but are poorly observed globally. The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission will provide high-resolution measurements of water surface elevations with global coverage. Feasibility studies have been undertaken to help define the orbit inclination and repeat period. Preliminary error budgets have been computed for estimating instantaneous and monthly river discharge from SWOT measurements (errors are assumed uncorrelated). Errors on monthly discharge due to SWOT temporal sampling were estimated using gauges and their observation times for two SWOT orbits with different inclinations (78° and 74°). These errors have then been extrapolated to rivers globally. The 78° and 74° orbital inclinations allow a good sampling frequency, avoid tidal aliasing and cover almost all the continental surface. For a 22-day repeat orbit, a single point at 72°N is sampled 11 and 16 times during one repeat period for the 78° and 74° inclination orbit, respectively. Errors in instantaneous discharge are below 25% for rivers wider than 50 m (48% of all rivers). Errors in monthly discharge are below 20% for rivers with drainage areas larger than 7000 km2 (34% of all rivers). A rough estimate of global lake storage change has been computed. Currently, available satellite nadir altimetry data can only monitor 15% of the global lake volume variation, whereas from 50% to more than 65% of this variation will be observed by SWOT, thus providing a significant increase in our knowledge of lake hydrology.

The Observed State of the Water Cycle in the Early Twenty-First Century

AbstractThis study quantifies mean annual and monthly fluxes of Earth’s water cycle over continents and ocean basins during the first decade of the millennium. To the extent possible, the flux estimates are based on satellite measurements first and data-integrating models second. A careful accounting of uncertainty in the estimates is included. It is applied within a routine that enforces multiple water and energy budget constraints simultaneously in a variational framework in order to produce objectively determined optimized flux estimates. In the majority of cases, the observed annual surface and atmospheric water budgets over the continents and oceans close with much less than 10% residual. Observed residuals and optimized uncertainty estimates are considerably larger for monthly surface and atmospheric water budget closure, often nearing or exceeding 20% in North America, Eurasia, Australia and neighboring islands, and the Arctic and South Atlantic Oceans. The residuals in South America and Africa ten...

The Observed State of the Energy Budget in the Early Twenty-First Century

New objectively balanced observation-based reconstructions of global and continental energy budgets and their seasonal variability are presented that span the golden decade of Earth-observing satellites at the start of the twentyfirst century. In the absence of balance constraints, various combinations of modern flux datasets reveal that current estimates of net radiation into Earth’s surface exceed corresponding turbulent heat fluxes by 13–24 Wm 22 .T he largest imbalances occur over oceanic regions where the component algorithms operate independent of closure constraints.Recent uncertainty assessmentssuggestthat these imbalancesfall within anticipatederror bounds foreach dataset, but the systematic nature of required adjustments across different regions confirm the existence of biases in the component fluxes. To reintroduce energy and water cycle closure information lost in the development of independent flux datasets, a variational method is introduced that explicitly accounts for the relative accuracies in all component fluxes. Applying the technique to a 10-yr record of satellite observations yields new energy budget estimates that simultaneously satisfy all energy and water cycle balance constraints. Globally, 180 Wm 22 of atmospheric longwavecoolingisbalancedby74 Wm 22 ofshortwaveabsorptionand106 Wm 22 oflatentandsensibleheatrelease. Atthesurface,106Wm 22 ofdownwellingradiationisbalancedbyturbulentheattransfertowithinaresidualheatflux into the oceans of 0.45Wm 22 , consistent with recent observations of changes in ocean heat content. Annual mean energy budgets and their seasonal cycles for each of seven continents and nine ocean basins are also presented.

The Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership: An Example of Science Applied to Societal Needs

Abstract Northern Eurasia, the largest land-mass in the northern extratropics, accounts for ∼20% of the global land area. However, little is known about how the biogeochemical cycles, energy and water cycles, and human activities specific to this carbon-rich, cold region interact with global climate. A major concern is that changes in the distribution of land-based life, as well as its interactions with the environment, may lead to a self-reinforcing cycle of accelerated regional and global warming. With this as its motivation, the Northern Eurasian Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) was formed in 2004 to better understand and quantify feedbacks between northern Eurasian and global climates. The first group of NEESPI projects has mostly focused on assembling regional databases, organizing improved environmental monitoring of the region, and studying individual environmental processes. That was a starting point to addressing emerging challenges in the region related to rapidly and simultaneously...

Continental Runoff into the Oceans (1950–2008)

AbstractA common term in the continental and oceanic components of the global water cycle is freshwater discharge to the oceans. Many estimates of the annual average global discharge have been made over the past 100 yr with a surprisingly wide range. As more observations have become available and continental-scale land surface model simulations of runoff have improved, these past estimates are cast in a somewhat different light. In this paper, a combination of observations from 839 river gauging stations near the outlets of large river basins is used in combination with simulated runoff fields from two implementations of the Variable Infiltration Capacity land surface model to estimate continental runoff into the world’s oceans from 1950 to 2008. The gauges used account for ~58% of continental areas draining to the ocean worldwide, excluding Greenland and Antarctica. This study estimates that flows to the world’s oceans globally are 44 200 (±2660) km3 yr−1 (9% from Africa, 37% from Eurasia, 30% from South...

Creative Writing with a Machine in the Loop: Case Studies on Slogans and Stories

As the quality of natural language generated by artificial intelligence systems improves, writing interfaces can support interventions beyond grammar-checking and spell-checking, such as suggesting content to spark new ideas. To explore the possibility of machine-in-the-loop creative writing, we performed two case studies using two system prototypes, one for short story writing and one for slogan writing. Participants in our studies were asked to write with a machine in the loop or alone (control condition). They assessed their writing and experience through surveys and an open-ended interview. We collected additional assessments of the writing from Amazon Mechanical Turk crowdworkers. Our findings indicate that participants found the process fun and helpful and could envision use cases for future systems. At the same time, machine suggestions do not necessarily lead to better written artifacts. We therefore suggest novel natural language models and design choices that may better support creative writing.