E. de la Poza

Modeling Spanish anxiolytic consumption: Economic, demographic and behavioral influences

Abstract Anxiolytics (AX) are the psychotropic drugs prescribed for the treatment of anxiety and insomnia for 2–4 weeks, for longer periods of consumption (>1 month) may lead to the development of tolerance or addiction. In fact, its prescription was 16% of the total pharmaceutical expenditure in Spain in 2007. This paper deals with the development of a mathematical model describing the dynamic of the addiction to AX for the case study of the Spanish region of Castellon. The reasons believed to cause the development of addicts to AX are the economic situation, the marriage termination and the social contact. The simulations performed to forecast the addicts rate for the period 2010–2014 showed an increase from 6% in 2010 to 14% in 2014 with a fluctuation of about 2% between the possible economic scenarios. Finally, the analysis of sensitivity of the rate of addicts to the fluctuation of the social contact parameters was performed, letting us estimate its impact on the pharmaceutical expenditure.

Predicting workaholism in Spain: a discrete mathematical model

At the present time one of the most ‘desirable’ behavioural addictions that any person could develop is workaholism, a negative psychological state characterized by working excessively and compulsively. In our society, the successful person is one who spends all of their time working. Moreover, a common pattern of company management consists of stressing and putting pressure on employees to achieve the maximum profit. This trend has increased with the economic crisis in Spain and over the world. As a consequence, the terms hard working and workaholism are easily confounded, but their effects on the companies are highly different in terms of productivity. This paper proposes a discrete mathematical model to forecast the development of workaholism in Spain in the next years. A questionnaire is used in order to measure and classify our sample in subpopulations by their level of addiction. Then, different economic scenarios are simulated. Finally, economic and social consequences of this addiction are studied and public health recommendations are suggested.

Modelling and analysing voting behaviour: the case of the Spanish general elections

ABSTRACT The permanent high-level public and private debt, high unsustainable youth unemployment rates, combined with the constant disclosure of establishment parties’ corruption scandals, are features of the present Spanish scenario. Lack of confidence in the government’s labour is driving a large proportion of the electoral register to support new emergent political parties. This article models and analyses Spanish citizens’ electoral behaviour in what were the last Spanish General Elections (2015). The proposed compartmental model is based on a system of six different equations. Transition coefficients are quantified according to economic, demographic, psychological and sociological factors. After obtaining the initial data from previous general elections and by sampling new voters’ intentions, the expected electoral support was computed and analysed. Our results predict the end of the two-party system in Spain and a change to a main four-party system.

Mathematical Modeling of the Consumption of Low Invasive Plastic Surgery Practices: The Case of Spain

Plastic surgery practice grows continuously among the women in Western countries due to their body image dissatisfaction, aging anxiety, and an ideal body image propagated by the media. The consumption growth is so important that plastic surgery is becoming a normal practice among women, like any other cosmetic product, with the risk of suffering psychopathology disorders in the sense that plastic surgery could be employed as an instrument to recover personal self-esteem or even happiness. Plastic surgery practice depends on economic, demographic, and social contagion factors. In this paper, a mathematical epidemiological model to forecast female plastic surgery consumption in Spain is fully constructed. Overconsumer subpopulation is predicted and simulated. Robustness of the model versus uncertain parameters is studied throughout a sensitivity analysis.

Mathematical Modeling of Hidden Intimate Partner Violence in Spain: A Quantitative and Qualitative Approach

The fact that women are abused by their male partner is something that happens worldwide in the 21st century. In numerous cases, abuse only becomes publicly known when a fatal event occurs and is beyond any possible remedy, that is, when men murder their female partner. Since 2003, 793 (September 4, 2015) women have been assassinated by their significant other or excouple in Spain. Only 7.2% of murdered women had reported their fear and previous intimate partner violence (IPV) to the police. Even when the number of female victims is comparable to the number of victims by terrorism, the Government has not assigned an equal amount of resources to diminish the magnitude of this hidden social problem. In this paper, a mathematical epidemiological model to forecast intimate partner violence in Spain is constructed. Both psychological and physical aggressor subpopulations are predicted and simulated. The model’s robustness versus uncertain parameters is studied by a sensitivity analysis.

Modelling the propagation of adult male muscle dysmorphia in Spain: economic, emotional and social drivers

Males aged over 40 do more gym practice to improve their body image as a way of reinforcing their personal self-esteem and sexual appeal. Cases when self-image becomes an obsession may result in a body dysmorphic disorder named ‘muscle dysmorphia’ (MD). The combination of psychological, environmental and biological drivers determines the appearance and development of this disorder. In this article, we developed a discrete population mathematical model to forecast the rate of prevalence of males who are noncompetitive bodybuilders at risk of suffering MD in Spain in forthcoming years. Economic, emotional, sociological and psychological motivations were taken into account to quantify the dynamic behaviour of Spanish noncompetitive bodybuilders. The impact of the unemployment is reflected in the construction of two coefficients, αu and α21, which explain subpopulation transits due to the economy. Sociological influences, such as human herding and social propagation, were also considered. Our results predict an increase in Spanish noncompetitive bodybuilders suffering MD from 1% in 2011 to around 11% in 2015. Our model can be applied to any other western country where data are available and to another study period when the hypotheses are applicable.

Mathematical Modeling of the Propagation of Democratic Support of Extreme Ideologies in Spain: Causes, Effects, and Recommendations for Its Stop

This paper deals with the construction of a discrete population mathematical model for the short-term forecast until January 2016 of the electoral support of extreme ideology parties in Spain. Firstly, the nontrivial concept of extreme ideology is stated. Then, the electoral register is split in three subpopulations: supporters of extremist parties, abstentions/blank voters, and supporters of establishment parties. The model takes into account the following variables: economy measured throughout the Spanish unemployment rate; demography quantified in terms of birth and death rates and emigration; sociopolitical situation measured by the Spanish poverty indicator, trust on the Government labor indicator (GLI), and the indicator of political trust. By considering the dynamic subpopulations transits built throughout data obtained from public and private prestigious institutions and sociopolitical analysis, a system of difference equations models the electoral population behavior in Spain allowing us to compute the expected electoral support in the time horizon of January 2016. Sensitivity analysis versus uncertain parameters is performed in order to improve the reliability of the model results.