E. E. Popova

Southern Ocean deep-water carbon export enhanced by natural iron fertilization

The addition of iron to high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll regions induces phytoplankton blooms that take up carbon. Carbon export from the surface layer and, in particular, the ability of the ocean and sediments to sequester carbon for many years remains, however, poorly quantified. Here we report data from the CROZEX experiment in the Southern Ocean, which was conducted to test the hypothesis that the observed north–south gradient in phytoplankton concentrations in the vicinity of the Crozet Islands is induced by natural iron fertilization that results in enhanced organic carbon flux to the deep ocean. We report annual particulate carbon fluxes out of the surface layer, at three kilometres below the ocean surface and to the ocean floor. We find that carbon fluxes from a highly productive, naturally iron-fertilized region of the sub-Antarctic Southern Ocean are two to three times larger than the carbon fluxes from an adjacent high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll area not fertilized by iron. Our findings support the hypothesis that increased iron supply to the glacial sub-Antarctic may have directly enhanced carbon export to the deep ocean. The CROZEX sequestration efficiency (the amount of carbon sequestered below the depth of winter mixing for a given iron supply) of 8,600 mol mol-1 was 18 times greater than that of a phytoplankton bloom induced artificially by adding iron, but 77 times smaller than that of another bloom initiated, like CROZEX, by a natural supply of iron. Large losses of purposefully added iron can explain the lower efficiency of the induced bloom6. The discrepancy between the blooms naturally supplied with iron may result in part from an underestimate of horizontal iron supply.

Material supply to the abyssal seafloor in the northeast Atlantic

Downward particle flux was measured using sediment traps at various depths over the Porcupine Abyssal Plain (water depth ~4850 m) for prolonged periods from 1989 to 1999. A strong seasonal pattern of flux was evident reaching a maximum in mid-summer. The composition of the material changed with depth, reflecting the processes of remineralisation and dissolution as the material sank through the water column. However, there was surprisingly little seasonal variation in its composition to reflect changes in the biology of the euphotic zone. Currents at the site have a strong tidal component with speeds almost always less than 15 cm/sec. In the deeper part of the water column they tend to be northerly in direction, when averaged over periods of several months. A model of upper ocean biogeochemistry forced by meteorology was run for the decade in order to provide an estimate of flux at 3000 m depth. Agreement with measured organic carbon flux is good, both in terms of the timings of the annual peaks and in the integrated annual flux. Interannual variations in the integrated flux are of similar magnitude for both the model output and sediment trap measurements, but there is no significant relationship between these two sets of estimates. No long-term trend in flux is evident, either from the model, or from the measurements. During two spring/summer periods, the marine snow concentration in the water column was assessed by time-lapse photography and showed a strong peak at the start of the downward pulse of material at 3000 m. This emphasises the importance of large particles during periods of maximum flux and at the start of flux peaks. Time lapse photographs of the seabed show a seasonal cycle of coverage of phytodetrital material, in agreement with the model output both in terms of timing and magnitude of coverage prior to 1996. However, after a change in the structure of the benthic community in 1996 no phytodetritus was evident on the seabed. The model output shows only a single peak in flux each year, whereas the measured data usually indicated a double peak. It is concluded that the observed double peak may be a reflection of lowered sediment trap efficiency when flux is very high and is dominated by large marine snow particles. Resuspension into the trap 100 m above the seabed, when compared to the primary flux at 3000 m depth (1800 mab) was lower during periods of high primary flux probably because of a reduction in the height of resuspension when the material is fresh. At 2 mab, the picture is more complex with resuspension being enhanced during the periods of higher flux in 1997, which is consistent with this hypothesis. However there was rather little relationship to flux at 3000 m in 1998. At 3000 m depth, the Flux Stability Index (FSI), which provides a measure of the constancy of the seasonal cycle of flux, exhibited an inverse relationship with flux, such that the highest flux of organic carbon was recorded during the year with the greatest seasonal variation.

Biodiversity redistribution under climate change : Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being

Consequences of shifting species distributions Climate change is causing geographical redistribution of plant and animal species globally. These distributional shifts are leading to new ecosystems and ecological communities, changes that will affect human society. Pecl et al. review these current and future impacts and assess their implications for sustainable development goals. Science, this issue p. eaai9214 BACKGROUND The success of human societies depends intimately on the living components of natural and managed systems. Although the geographical range limits of species are dynamic and fluctuate over time, climate change is impelling a universal redistribution of life on Earth. For marine, freshwater, and terrestrial species alike, the first response to changing climate is often a shift in location, to stay within preferred environmental conditions. At the cooler extremes of their distributions, species are moving poleward, whereas range limits are contracting at the warmer range edge, where temperatures are no longer tolerable. On land, species are also moving to cooler, higher elevations; in the ocean, they are moving to colder water at greater depths. Because different species respond at different rates and to varying degrees, key interactions among species are often disrupted, and new interactions develop. These idiosyncrasies can result in novel biotic communities and rapid changes in ecosystem functioning, with pervasive and sometimes unexpected consequences that propagate through and affect both biological and human communities. ADVANCES At a time when the world is anticipating unprecedented increases in human population growth and demands, the ability of natural ecosystems to deliver ecosystem services is being challenged by the largest climate-driven global redistribution of species since the Last Glacial Maximum. We demonstrate the serious consequences of this species redistribution for economic development, livelihoods, food security, human health, and culture, and we document feedbacks on climate itself. As with other impacts of climate change, species range shifts will leave “winners” and “losers” in their wake, radically reshaping the pattern of human well-being between regions and different sectors and potentially leading to substantial conflict. The pervasive impacts of changes in species distribution transcend single systems or dimensions, with feedbacks and linkages between multiple interacting scales and through whole ecosystems, inclusive of humans. We argue that the negative effects of climate change cannot be adequately anticipated or prepared for unless species responses are explicitly included in decision-making and global strategic frameworks. OUTLOOK Despite mounting evidence for the pervasive and substantial impacts of a climate-driven redistribution of Earth’s species, current global goals, policies, and international agreements fail to account for these effects. With the predicted intensification of species movements and their diverse societal and environmental impacts, awareness of species “on the move” should be incorporated into local, regional, and global assessments as standard practice. This will raise hope that future targets—whether they be global sustainability goals, plans for regional biodiversity maintenance, or local fishing or forestry harvest strategies—can be achievable and that society is prepared for a world of universal ecological change. Human society has yet to appreciate the implications of unprecedented species redistribution for life on Earth, including for human lives. Even if greenhouse gas emissions stopped today, the responses required in human systems to adapt to the most serious effects of climate-driven species redistribution would be massive. Meeting these challenges requires governance that can anticipate and adapt to changing conditions, as well as minimize negative consequences. As the global climate changes, human well-being, ecosystem function, and even climate itself are increasingly affected by the shifting geography of life. Climate-driven changes in species distributions, or range shifts, affect human well-being both directly (for example, through emerging diseases and changes in food supply) and indirectly (by degrading ecosystem health). Some range shifts even create feedbacks (positive or negative) on the climate system, altering the pace of climate change. Distributions of Earth’s species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by human-mediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals.

What controls primary production in the Arctic Ocean? Results from an intercomparison of five general circulation models with biogeochemistry

As a part of Arctic Ocean Intercomparison Project, results from five coupled physical and biological ocean models were compared for the Arctic domain, defined here as north of 66.6°N. The global and regional (Arctic Ocean (AO)–only) models included in the intercomparison show similar features in terms of the distribution of present-day water column–integrated primary production and are broadly in agreement with in situ and satellite-derived data. However, the physical factors controlling this distribution differ between the models. The intercomparison between models finds substantial variation in the depth of winter mixing, one of the main mechanisms supplying inorganic nutrients over the majority of the AO. Although all models manifest similar level of light limitation owing to general agreement on the ice distribution, the amount of nutrients available for plankton utilization is different between models. Thus the participating models disagree on a fundamental question: which factor, light or nutrients, controls present-day Arctic productivity. These differences between models may not be detrimental in determining present-day AO primary production since both light and nutrient limitation are tightly coupled to the presence of sea ice. Essentially, as long as at least one of the two limiting factors is reproduced correctly, simulated total primary production will be close to that observed. However, if the retreat of Arctic sea ice continues into the future as expected, a decoupling between sea ice and nutrient limitation will occur, and the predictive capabilities of the models may potentially diminish unless more effort is spent on verifying the mechanisms of nutrient supply. Our study once again emphasizes the importance of a realistic representation of ocean physics, in particular vertical mixing, as a necessary foundation for ecosystem modeling and predictions.

Ocean fertilization: a potential means of geoengineering?

The oceans sequester carbon from the atmosphere partly as a result of biological productivity. Over much of the ocean surface, this productivity is limited by essential nutrients and we discuss whether it is likely that sequestration can be enhanced by supplying limiting nutrients. Various methods of supply have been suggested and we discuss the efficacy of each and the potential side effects that may develop as a result. Our conclusion is that these methods have the potential to enhance sequestration but that the current level of knowledge from the observations and modelling carried out to date does not provide a sound foundation on which to make clear predictions or recommendations. For ocean fertilization to become a viable option to sequester CO2, we need more extensive and targeted fieldwork and better mathematical models of ocean biogeochemical processes. Models are needed both to interpret field observations and to make reliable predictions about the side effects of large-scale fertilization. They would also be an essential tool with which to verify that sequestration has effectively taken place. There is considerable urgency to address climate change mitigation and this demands that new fieldwork plans are developed rapidly. In contrast to previous experiments, these must focus on the specific objective which is to assess the possibilities of CO2 sequestration through fertilization.

Coupled 3D physical and biological modelling of the mesoscale variability observed in North-East Atlantic in spring 1997: biological processes

A limited area, eddy resolving coupled physical and biological model and data assimilation are used to reproduce and analyse the ecosystem variability observed in the North-East Atlantic in April-May 1997 on Discovery cruise 227. The ecosystem was in a post-bloom grazing controlled regime. The combination of the deep mixing in the upper layer during the cruise and a deeper than average winter convection led to high-nutrient-low-chlorophyll type conditions, which are unusual for this location. These conditions and lack of strong mesoscale physical features led to low spatial variability of phyto- and zooplankton yet strong sensitivity to the variations in the vertical mixing (storm event). Modelling results show that plankton patchiness formation under these conditions was dominated by biological mechanisms (mainly predator-prey oscillations). Furthermore, this mechanism, together with mixing and stirring, are responsible in this order for the observed scales and variability of patchiness from homogeneous low winter concentrations of phyto- and zooplankton

Biological pump and vertical mixing in the southern ocean: Their impact on atmospheric CO2

A global box model simulating nitrogen and carbon cycling in the ocean has been developed. The distinctive feature of the model is the detailed description of the seasonal cycles of the oceanic upper mixed layer (UML) ecosystem. Unlike other ocean regions, phytoplankton productivity in the Southern Ocean is assumed to be limited by low iron availability, leading to twofold decrease in the phytoplankton growth rate. Calculated ecosystem and carbon cycle characteristics are in a good agreement with available observational data and conceptual models of generalized phytoplankton seasonal cycles in the world ocean. The model estimates of the global ocean new production outside of shelf regions and the preindustrial atmospheric pCO2 are 9.9 Gt C/yr and 282 ppm, respectively. Results of numerical experiments with the model showed that the potential new production which might be reached by allowing phytoplankton maximum growth rate to increase is 29 Gt C/yr (76% of this increase is contributed by the Southern Ocean) and corresponds to an atmospheric pCO2 of 205 ppm; however, this would require an unrealistic tenfold increase in growth rate. The large contribution of the Southern Ocean is accounted for by the high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll (HNLC) conditions existing in this region caused by the high dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations below the UML, deep mixing during the austral summer, and iron limitation of phytoplankton productivity. A realistic (twofold) increase in the phytoplankton growth rate in the Southern Ocean which can be considered as a maximal effect of iron fertilization results in the lowering of atmospheric pCO2 by only 10 ppm. Changes in the UML depth in the Southern Ocean (a wintertime shallowing and summertime deepening of the UML in comparison with preindustrial conditions) could lead to a decrease of atmospheric pCO2 by 15 ppm at the most. The combined effect of iron fertilization and these changes in vertical mixing might constitute about 30–35 ppm, that is, less than one half of the lowering of 80 ppm during the last glaciation.

Future change in ocean productivity: Is the Arctic the new Atlantic?

One of the most characteristic features in ocean productivity is the North Atlantic spring bloom. Responding to seasonal increases in irradiance and stratification, surface phytopopulations rise significantly, a pattern that visibly tracks poleward into summer. While blooms also occur in the Arctic Ocean, they are constrained by the sea-ice and strong vertical stratification that characterize this region. However, Arctic sea-ice is currently declining, and forecasts suggest this may lead to completely ice-free summers by the mid-21st century. Such change may open the Arctic up to Atlantic-style spring blooms, and do so at the same time as Atlantic productivity is threatened by climate change-driven ocean stratification. Here we use low and high-resolution instances of a coupled ocean-biogeochemistry model, NEMO-MEDUSA, to investigate productivity. Drivers of present-day patterns are identified, and changes in these across a climate change scenario (IPCC RCP 8.5) are analyzed. We find a globally significant decline in North Atlantic productivity (> ?20%) by 2100, and a correspondingly significant rise in the Arctic (> +50%). However, rather than the future Arctic coming to resemble the current Atlantic, both regions are instead transitioning to a common, low nutrient regime. The North Pacific provides a counterexample where nutrients remain high and productivity increases with elevated temperature. These responses to climate change in the Atlantic and Arctic are common between model resolutions, suggesting an independence from resolution for key impacts. However, some responses, such as those in the North Pacific, differ between the simulations, suggesting the reverse and supporting the drive to more fine-scale resolutions.

From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots.

Abstract Ocean warming ‘hotspots’ are regions characterized by above‐average temperature increases over recent years, for which there are significant consequences for both living marine resources and the societies that depend on them. As such, they represent early warning systems for understanding the impacts of marine climate change, and test‐beds for developing adaptation options for coping with those impacts. Here, we examine five hotspots off the coasts of eastern Australia, South Africa, Madagascar, India and Brazil. These particular hotspots have underpinned a large international partnership that is working towards improving community adaptation by characterizing, assessing and projecting the likely future of coastal‐marine food resources through the provision and sharing of knowledge. To inform this effort, we employ a high‐resolution global ocean model forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and simulated to year 2099. In addition to the sea surface temperature, we analyse projected stratification, nutrient supply, primary production, anthropogenic CO 2‐driven ocean acidification, deoxygenation and ocean circulation. Our simulation finds that the temperature‐defined hotspots studied here will continue to experience warming but, with the exception of eastern Australia, may not remain the fastest warming ocean areas over the next century as the strongest warming is projected to occur in the subpolar and polar areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, we find that recent rapid change in SST is not necessarily an indicator that these areas are also hotspots of the other climatic stressors examined. However, a consistent facet of the hotspots studied here is that they are all strongly influenced by ocean circulation, which has already shown changes in the recent past and is projected to undergo further strong change into the future. In addition to the fast warming, change in local ocean circulation represents a distinct feature of present and future climate change impacting marine ecosystems in these areas.

Along or across front survey strategy? An operational example at an unstable front

We present results of the optimization of near-real time on-board sampling strategy in the Iceland-Faroes oceanic frontal area, based on the outputs of a mesoscale 3D operational data assimilation forecasting experiment. By minimizing a root mean square error cost function, we show that in this example an along-front sampling strategy, i.e. with transects parallel to the front, produces smaller errors in temperature, salinity, nitrate, phytoplankton, and zooplankton fields, as a result of a combination of the direction of the sampling of the front and errors associated with the asynopticy of observations (Doppler effect). This is contrary to the classic across-front sampling strategies that are used in most field experiments reported in the literature, i.e. where transects are perpendicular to the front. A control model shows that at these spatio-temporal scales, the along front sampling strategy is optimal when the frontal instability has sufficiently developed.