E.E. van Loon

A probabilistic framework for representing and simulating uncertain environmental variables

Understanding the limitations of environmental data is important for managing environmental systems effectively and for encouraging the responsible use of uncertain data. Explicit assessment of the uncertainties associated with environmental data, and their storage in a database, are therefore important. This paper presents a statistical framework for representing and simulating uncertain environmental variables. In general terms, an uncertain variable is completely specified by its probability distribution function (pdf). Pdfs are developed for objects with uncertain locations (‘positional uncertainty’) and uncertain attribute values (‘attribute uncertainty’). Objects comprising multiple space–time locations are separated into ‘rigid objects’, where positional uncertainty cannot alter the internal geometry of the object, and ‘deformable’ objects, where positional uncertainty can vary between locations in one object. Statistical dependence is allowed between uncertainties in multiple locations in one object. The uncertainties associated with attribute values are also modelled with pdfs. The type and complexity of these pdfs depend upon the measurement scale and the space–time variability of the uncertain attribute. The framework is illustrated with examples. A prototype software tool for assessing uncertainties in environmental data, storing them within a database, and for generating realizations for use in Monte Carlo studies is also presented.

Analyzing the effect of wind on flight: Pitfalls and solutions

SUMMARY How flying organisms alter their air speed in response to wind is important in theories of flight energetics. Numerous studies have investigated the relationship between air and wind as a function of ground speed and air speed. This study shows that this approach can lead to erroneous results, due to spurious correlations. An alternative way to analyze air speed is proposed that overcomes the problems of one-dimensional linear models. The new model is non-linear and has two explanatory variables. Using two synthetic data sets with known properties and a data set with real observations of migratory bird tracks and wind observations, we illustrate the weaknesses of the conventional analysis as well as the strengths of the newly proposed model. This leads to the conclusion that for many studies a reanalysis of the effect of wind on air speed is desirable.

Quantifying flow-assistance and implications for movement research.

The impact that flows of air and water have on organisms moving through these environments has received a great deal of attention in theoretical and empirical studies. There are many behavioral strategies that animals can adopt to interact with these flows, and by assuming one of these strategies a researcher can quantify the instantaneous assistance an animal derives from a particular flow. Calculating flow-assistance in this way can provide an elegant simplification of a multivariate problem to a univariate one and has many potential uses; however, the resultant flow-assistance values are inseparably linked to the specific behavioral strategy assumed. We expect that flow-assistance may differ considerably depending on the behavioral strategy assumed and the accuracy of the assumptions associated with that strategy. Further, we expect that the magnitude of these differences may depend on the specific flow conditions. We describe equations to quantify flow-assistance of increasing complexity (i.e. more assumptions), focusing on the behavioral strategies assumed by each. We illustrate differences in suggested flow-assistance between these equations and calculate the sensitivity of each equation to uncertainty in its particular assumptions for a range of theoretical flow conditions. We then simulate trajectories that occur if an animal behaves according to the assumptions inherent in these equations. We find large differences in flow-assistance between the equations, particularly with increasing lateral flow and increasingly supportive axial flow. We find that the behavioral strategy assumed is generally more influential on the perception of flow-assistance than a small amount of uncertainty in the specification of an animals speed (i.e. <5 ms(-1)) or preferred direction of movement (i.e. <10°). Using simulated trajectories, we show that differences between flow-assistance equations can accumulate over time and distance. The appropriateness and potential biases of an equation to quantify flow-assistance, and the behavioral assumptions the equation implies, must be considered in the context of the system being studied, particularly when interpreting results. Thus, we offer this framework for researchers to evaluate the suitability of a particular flow-assistance equation and assess the implications of its use.

Analysis and visualization of animal movement.

The interdisciplinary workshop ‘Analysis and Visualization of Moving Objects’ was held at the Lorentz Centre in Leiden, The Netherlands, from 27 June to 1 July 2011. It brought together international specialists from ecology, computer science and geographical information science actively involved in the exploration, visualization and analysis of moving objects, such as marine reptiles, mammals, birds, storms, ships, cars and pedestrians. The aim was to share expertise, methodologies, data and common questions between different fields, and to work towards making significant advances in movement research. A data challenge based on GPS tracking of lesser black-backed gulls (Larus fuscus) was used to stimulate initial discussions, cross-fertilization between research groups and to serve as an initial focus for activities during the workshop.

Understanding soaring bird migration through interactions and decisions at the individual level

Many soaring bird species migrate southwards in autumn from their breeding grounds in Europe and Central Asia towards their wintering grounds. Our knowledge about interactions between migrating birds, thermal selection during migration and mechanisms that lead to flocking or convergent travel networks is still very limited. To start investigating these aspects we developed an individual-based simulation model that describes the local interactions between birds and their environment during their migratory flight, leading to emergent patterns at larger scales. The aim of our model is to identify likely decision rules with respect to thermal selection and navigation. After explaining the model, it is applied to analyse the migration of white storks (Ciconia ciconia) over part of its migration domain. A model base-run is accompanied by a sensitivity analysis. It appears that social interactions lead to the use of fewer thermals and slight increases in distance travelled. Possibilities for different model extensions and further model application are discussed.

Flap or soar? How a flight generalist responds to its aerial environment

The aerial environment is heterogeneous in space and time and directly influences the costs of animal flight. Volant animals can reduce these costs by using different flight modes, each with their own benefits and constraints. However, the extent to which animals alter their flight modes in response to environmental conditions has rarely been studied in the wild. To provide insight into how a flight generalist can reduce the energetic cost of movement, we studied flight behaviour in relation to the aerial environmental and landscape using hundreds of hours of global positioning system and triaxial acceleration measurements of the lesser black-backed gull (Larus fuscus). Individuals differed largely in the time spent in flight, which increased linearly with the time spent in flight at sea. In general, flapping was used more frequently than more energetically efficient soaring flight. The probability of soaring increased with increasing boundary layer height and time closer to midday, reflecting improved convective conditions supportive of thermal soaring. Other forms of soaring flight were also used, including fine-scale use of orographic lift. We explore the energetic consequences of behavioural adaptations to the aerial environment and underlying landscape and implications for individual energy budgets, foraging ecology and reproductive success. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Moving in a moving medium: new perspectives on flight’.

Filtering fens: Mechanisms explaining phosphorus-limited hotspots of biodiversity in wetlands adjacent to heavily fertilized areas

The conservation of biodiverse wetland vegetation, including that of rich fens, has a high priority at a global scale. Although P-eutrophication may strongly decrease biodiversity in rich fens, some well-developed habitats do still survive in highly fertilized regions due to nutrient filtering services of large wetlands. The occurrence of such nutrient gradients is well-known, but the biogeochemical mechanisms that determine these patterns are often unclear. We therefore analyzed chemical speciation and binding of relevant nutrients and minerals in surface waters, soils and plants along such gradients in the large Ramsar nature reserve Weerribben-Wieden in the Netherlands. P-availability was lowest in relatively isolated floating rich fens, where plant N:P ratios indicated P-limitation. P-limitation can persist here despite high P-concentrations in surface waters near the peripheral entry locations, because only a small part of the P-input reaches the more isolated waters and fens. This pattern in P-availability appears to be primarily due to precipitation of Fe-phosphates, which mainly occurs close to entry locations as indicated by decreasing concentrations of Fe- and Al-bound P in the sub-aquatic sediments along this gradient. A further decrease of P-availability is caused by biological sequestration, which occurs throughout the wetland as indicated by equal concentrations of organic P in all sub-aquatic sediments. Our results clearly show that the periphery of large wetlands does indeed act as an efficient P-filter, sustaining the necessary P-limitation in more isolated parts. However, this filtering function does harm the ecological quality of the peripheral parts of the reserve. The filtering mechanisms, such as precipitation of Fe-phosphates and biological uptake of P, are crucial for the conservation and restoration of biodiverse rich fens in wetlands that receive eutrophic water from their surroundings. This seems to implicate that biodiverse wetland vegetation requires larger areas, as long as eutrophication has not been seriously tackled.

A semantically integrated, user-friendly data model for species observation data

Recent decades have seen an increasing importance of large-scale ecological research, driven by increased awareness of the global influence of human activities on the biosphere. Such research requires species observation data covering many years, large areas and a broad range of taxonomic groups. As such data sets often cover small areas, and have been collected using varying methods, they can only be combined in a single analysis if they are made available at the same location and translated into a single format. Over the past decade, catalysed by the growth of the Internet, various technologies for data dissemination and data integration have been developed and applied in projects such as the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, the Knowledge Network for Biocomplexity, BioCASE and the British National Biodiversity Network (NBN). In the Netherlands, data are now made available from the National Database of Flora and Fauna (NDFF), which currently contains approximately 40 million observation records covering a broad variety of species. The NDFF uses a standardised, semantically integrated data model to combine effectively species observation data of various kinds. In this paper, we evaluate this approach and the NDFF data model, by comparison with Darwin Core, Access to Biological Collections Data (ABCD) and the Recorder 2000 model used by the NBN. We conclude that the high degree of standardisation in the NDFF data model has led to somewhat increased cost in data conversion, but also to improved semantic integration and ease-of-use of species observation data. Together with the relative simplicity, completeness and flexibility of the model, this enables effective reuse of species observations in a user-friendly manner.

Assessing temporal couplings in social–ecological island systems: historical deforestation and soil loss on Mauritius (Indian Ocean)

Temporal couplings, such as historical interactions between deforestation and soil loss, are responsible for the current state of a wide range of ecosystem services of the social–ecological system on Mauritius. Islands are suitable study sites for understanding temporal couplings and telecouplings because of their: (1) clearly defined physical boundaries, (2) finite local resources, and (3) relatively short human history. Six well-documented historical deforestation maps, starting from the first colonization of Mauritius in 1638, were used as input parameters to model two scenarios of cumulative soil loss, with and without deforestation, using the revised universal soil loss equation in a geographic information system. The scenarios show that historical deforestation since 1638 has resulted in a cumulative soil loss that drastically exceeds soil loss under a natural baseline scenario without deforestation. The adopted method illustrates to what extent the current state of the soil of a social–ecological system is negatively affected by past human–environment interactions. We suggest that potential negative impacts on insular societies are mitigated by telecouplings such as food, fuel, and fertilizer imports.

Occupancy dynamics of wild rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in the coastal dunes of the Netherlands with imperfect detection

Context Wild rabbits are considered a key species in the coastal dunes of the Netherlands, but populations have collapsed as a result of viral diseases. Aim We studied to what extent population collapse led to local extinction and whether recolonisation of empty patches in the dunes happened. Methods We investigated occupancy dynamics using data of 245 transects where rabbits were surveyed in 1984–2009. Dynamic site-occupancy models were used to analyse the data. These models adjust for imperfect detection to avoid bias in occupancy-trend estimation. Key results The decline of the rabbit population has resulted in many local extinctions, especially in woodland and in the northern part of the coastal dunes. Most transects along grassland and mixed vegetation have recently been reoccupied. The recovery of woodland occupancy is slow, probably not because of limited dispersal capacity of rabbits, but because the quality of woodland habitats is poor. Detection probability of rabbits varied considerably over the years and among habitat types, indicating the necessity of taking detection into account. Rabbits were slightly better detected when it was cloudy, windy and rainy and when lunar phase approached new moon. Conclusion Extinction and recolonisation of habitat patches varied considerably among habitat types. Implications The current slow recolonisation hampers the recovery of rabbit populations in woodland habitats in the Dutch coastal dunes. Furthermore, monitoring rabbit occupancy should take imperfect detection into account to avoid biased results.