E. Eroshenko

Solar and Heliospheric Phenomena in October-November 2003: Causes and Effects

We present new observational data on the phenomena of extremely high activity on the Sun and in the heliosphere that took place in October–November 2003. A large variety of solar and heliospheric parameters give evidence that the interval under consideration is unique over the entire observation time. Based on these data, comparing them with similar situations in the past and using available theoretical concepts, we discuss possible cause-and-effect connections between the processes observed. The paper includes the first results and conclusions derived by the collaboration “Solar Extreme Events-2003” organized in Russia for detailed investigations of these events. As a result of our consideration, it is beyond question that the physical causes of solar and heliospheric phenomena in October–November 2003 are not exclusively local and do not belong only to the active regions and solar atmosphere above them. The energy reservoirs and driving forces of these processes have a more global nature. In general, they are hidden from an observer, since ultimately their sources lie in the subphotospheric layers of the Sun, where changes that are fast and difficult to predict can sometimes take place (and indeed they do). Solar flares can serve as sufficiently good tracers of these sudden changes and reconstructions on the Sun, although one can still find other diagnostic indicators among the parameters of magnetic fields, motions of matter, and emission characteristics.

Modeling ground level enhancements: Event of 20 January 2005

[1] The solar cosmic ray event associated with an X7.1 class solar flare on 20 January 2005 was one of the greatest enhancements ever recorded by the ground level worldwide network of neutron monitors. The event occurred during a Forbush decrease, almost at the end of the 23rd cycle of solar activity. In this work a ground level enhancement model for getting the broadest possible picture, as well as for understanding the physics of solar cosmic ray particles under extreme solar conditions, is proposed. Neutron monitors responses from 41 stations widely distributed around the Earth have been modeled to an anisotropic solar proton flux, using an optimization method based on the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. The parameters of the primary solar particles outside the magnetosphere and their dynamics, as well as the characteristics of solar cosmic rays during this event are obtained and discussed.

What determines the magnitude of forbush decreases

Abstract Cosmic ray Forbush effects (FEs) have been studied for more than 60 years, but even today this phenomenon has no universally accepted definition, which leads to misunderstanding among researchers. There are no complete and convincing answers to the following questions: What are the distinctive features of FEs? What determines the magnitude of FEs and their variety? How are FEs associated with disturbances of the interplanetary medium, coronal mass ejections and high speed flows of the solar wind? What relation exists between FEs and geomagnetic storms? In order to answer these and other questions a data base of transient effects in cosmic rays and in the interplanetary medium is constructed and is being upgraded continuously. It combines variations in cosmic ray densities and anisotropies obtained from data of the world-wide neutron monitor (NM) network, characteristics of solar wind disturbances, solar and geomagnetic data. This data base presently contains more than 1400 events, observed during 1978–1996. The preliminary analysis allowed us to get the main characteristics of FEs, to determine what distinguishes this phenomenon among other cosmic ray variations, and propose a definition of the Forbush effect. In addition, an interplanetary disturbance parameter was derived, which is most closely associated with the magnitude of a FE. Using this large observational database, a relation between FEs and geomagnetic activity was analyzed statistically as a dependence of the FE magnitude on the maximum Kp-index measured during the associated magnetic storm.

Ground level enhancements of solar cosmic rays during the last three solar cycles

The catalog of ground level enhancements of solar cosmic rays during cycles 21—23 of solar activity has been presented. The main properties, time distribution, and relation of these events to solar sources and proton enhancements observed on satellites have been studied.

GLEs as a Warning Tool for Radiation Effects on Electronics and Systems: A New Alert System Based on Real-Time Neutron Monitors

Ground level cosmic ray enhancements (GLEs) are the manifestations of short-time solar energetic particles radiation near the Earth causing damage to electronic devices carried on board the satellite platforms. A test alert system based on a real-time ground-level neutron monitor network is proposed in order to protect devices and electronics from space weather radiation effects.

Temperature effect of the muon component and practical questions for considering it in real time

A method for real-time practical consideration of the temperature effect on the cosmic ray muon component using muon telescopes of different geometries is developed. The method is applied to the real-time data of muon detectors. It is shown that the accuracy attainable in such an approach is sufficient for studying all classes of variations.

Cosmic-ray forecasting features for big forbush decreases

It is well known that big geomagnetic storms have an adverse influence on technological devices and radio wave propagation. Major geomagnetic storms, associated with Forbush decreases (FDs) in cosmic ray (CR) intensity, have also been found to increase the incidence of some diseases (in particular, the frequency of myocardial infarction increases by 13 ± 1.4%). We discuss here three phenomena that can be used for forecasting FDs: 1) CR intensity increase, of non solar-flare origin, occurring before sudden commencement of a major geomagnetic storm connected with FD (preincrease effect), 2) CR intensity decrease before FD (predecrease effect), 3) change in CR fluctuations before FD. First we investigate several such events by the global survey method for the years 1989–1991. We analyse the behaviour of the isotropic CR intensity and of the 3-dimensional vector of CR anisotropy before FDs, as well as results on CR scintillation of 1-hour and 5-minute data. We discuss a possible procedure of data treatment for future FD-forecasting analyses.

A New Version of the Neutron Monitor Based Anisotropic GLE Model: Application to GLE60

In this work we present a cosmic ray model that couples primary solar cosmic rays at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere with the secondary ones detected at ground level by neutron monitors during Ground-Level Enhancements (GLEs). The Neutron Monitor Based Anisotropic GLE Pure Power Law (NMBANGLE PPOLA) model constitutes a new version of the already existing NMBANGLE model, differing in the solar cosmic ray spectrum assumed. The total output of the model is a multi-dimensional GLE picture that reveals part of the characteristics of the big solar proton events recorded at ground level. We apply both versions of the model to the GLE of 15 April 2001 (GLE60) and compare the results.

Space weather forecasting at the new Athens center: the recent extreme events of January 2005

From the beginning of this year a new data analysis center [Athens Neutron Monitor Data Processing (ANMODAP) Center] is operated in Athens University producing a real-time prediction of space weather phenomena. At this moment there has been a multi-sided use of twenty-three neutron monitors providing real-time data on the Internet. Moreover, interplanetary space parameters data from Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellite and Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite are also collected in this center. The ANMODAP Center in real-time is of high potential interest, as it is expected to give alerts for ground level enhancements (GLEs) of solar cosmic rays (CRs) and geomagnetic storms and therefore to provide crucial information for Space Weather applications. Forecasting of the last GLE and the geomagnetic variations of CRs on January 2005, is presented.

Cosmic Ray Modulation during the Solar Activity Growth Phase of Cycle 24

Recent years allowed us to study long-term variations in the cosmic ray (CR) intensity at an unusually deep solar activity (SA) minimum between cycles 23 and 24 and during the SA growth phase in cycle 24, which was the cycle when SA was the lowest for the epoch of regular ground-based CR observations since 1951. The intensity maximum, the value of which depends on the particle energy, was observed in CR variations during the period of an unusually prolonged SA minimum: the CR density during the aformentioned period (2009) is higher than this density at previous CR maxima in cycles 19–23 for low-energy particles (observed on spacecraft and in the stratosphere) and medium-energy particles (observed with neutron monitors). After 2009 CR modulation at the SA growth phase was much weaker over three years (2010–2012) than during the corresponding SA growth periods in the previous cycles. The possible causes of this anomaly in CR variations, which are related to the CR residual modulation value at a minimum between cycles 23 and 24 and to variations in SA characteristics during this period, were examined. The contribution of different solar magnetic field characteristics and indices, taking into account sporadic solar activity, has been estimated.