E Samoli

Short-term effects of particulate air pollution on cardiovascular diseases in eight European cities

Study objective: As part of the APHEA project this study examined the association between airborne particles and hospital admissions for cardiac causes (ICD9 390–429) in eight European cities (Barcelona, Birmingham, London, Milan, the Netherlands, Paris, Rome, and Stockholm). All admissions were studied, as well as admissions stratified by age. The association for ischaemic heart disease (ICD9 410–413) and stroke (ICD9 430–438) was also studied, also stratified by age. Design: Autoregressive Poisson models were used that controlled for long term trend, season, influenza epidemics, and meteorology to assess the short-term effects of particles in each city. The study also examined confounding by other pollutants. City specific results were pooled in a second stage regression to obtain more stable estimates and examine the sources of heterogeneity. Main results: The pooled percentage increases associated with a 10 μg/m3 increase in PM10 and black smoke were respectively 0.5% (95% CI: 0.2 to 0.8) and 1.1% (95% CI: 0.4 to 1.8) for cardiac admissions of all ages, 0.7% (95% CI: 0.4 to 1.0) and 1.3% (95% CI: 0.4 to 2.2) for cardiac admissions over 65 years, and, 0.8% (95% CI: 0.3 to 1.2) and 1.1% (95% CI: 0.7 to 1.5) for ischaemic heart disease over 65 years. The effect of PM10 was little changed by control for ozone or SO2, but was substantially reduced (CO) or eliminated (NO2) by control for other traffic related pollutants. The effect of black smoke remained practically unchanged controlling for CO and only somewhat reduced controlling for NO2. Conclusions: These effects of particulate air pollution on cardiac admissions suggest the primary effect is likely to be mainly attributable to diesel exhaust. Results for ischaemic heart disease below 65 years and for stroke over 65 years were inconclusive.

Short-term effects of nitrogen dioxide on mortality: an analysis within the APHEA project

The short-term effects of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) on total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in 30 European cities participating in the Air Pollution on Health: a European Approach (APHEA)-2 project were investigated. The association was examined using hierarchical models implemented in two stages. In the first stage, data from each city were analysed separately, whereas in the second stage, the city-specific air pollution estimates were regressed on city-specific covariates to obtain overall estimates and to explore sources of possible heterogeneity. A significant association of NO2 with total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality was found, with stronger effects on cause-specific mortality. There was evidence of confounding in respiratory mortality with black smoke and sulphur dioxide. The effect of NO2 on total and cardiovascular mortality was observed mainly in western and southern European cities, and was larger when smoking prevalence was lower and household gas consumption was higher. The effect of NO2 on respiratory mortality was higher in cities with a larger proportion of elderly persons in the population and higher levels of particulate matter with a 50% cut-off aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm. The results of this large study are consistent with an independent effect of nitrogen dioxide on mortality, but the role of nitrogen dioxide as a surrogate of other unmeasured pollutants cannot be completely ruled out.

The temporal pattern of mortality responses to air pollution: a multicity assessment of mortality displacement.

Although the association between particulate matter and mortality or morbidity is generally accepted, controversy remains about the importance of the association. If it is due solely to the deaths of frail individuals, which are brought forward by only a brief period of time, the public health implications of the association are fewer than if there is an increase in the number of deaths. Recently, other research has addressed the mortality displacement issue in single-city analysis. We analyzed this issue with a distributed lag model in a multicity hierarchic modeling approach, within the Air Pollution and Health: A European Approach (APHEA-2) study. We fit a Poisson regression model and a polynomial distributed lag model with up to 40 days of delay in each city. In the second stage we combined the city-specific results. We found that the overall effect of particulate matter less than 10 &mgr;M in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) per 10 &mgr;g/m3 for the fourth-degree distributed lag model is a 1.61% increase in daily deaths (95% CI = 1.02–2.20), whereas the mean of PM10 on the same day and the previous day is associated with only a 0.70% increase in deaths (95% CI = 0.43–0.97). This result is unchanged using an unconstrained distributed lag model. Our study confirms that the effects observed in daily time-series studies are not due primarily to short-term mortality displacement. The effect size estimate for airborne particles more than doubles when we consider longer-term effects, which has important implications for risk assessment.

Flavonoid intake and breast cancer risk: a case--control study in Greece.

Flavonoids have been investigated for possible inverse associations with various chronic degenerative diseases, but there are no epidemiologic data concerning a possible association between several of the main flavonoid categories and breast cancer risk. We have applied recently published data on the flavonoid content of several foods and beverages on dietary information collected in the context of a large case–control study of 820 women with breast cancer and 1548 control women, conducted in Greece. We found a strong, statistically significant inverse association of flavone intake with breast cancer. The odds ratio for an increment equal to one standard deviation of daily flavone intake (i.e. 0.5 mg day−1) was 0.87, with 95% confidence interval 0.77–0.97. The association persisted after controlling for fruit and vegetable consumption, or for other flavonoid intake. This inverse association is compatible with and may explain the reported inverse association of breast cancer with consumption of vegetables, particularly leafy vegetables. After controlling for dietary confounding, there was no association of breast cancer risk with flavanones, flavan-3-ols, flavonols, anthocyanidins or isoflavones.

Short-term effects of ambient particles on mortality in the elderly: results from 28 cities in the APHEA2 project

Within the framework of the APHEA2 (Air Pollution on Health: a European Approach) project, the effects of ambient particles on mortality among persons ≥65 yrs were investigated. Daily measurements for particles with a 50% cut-off aerodynamic diameter of 10 µm (PM10) and black smoke (BS), as well as the daily number of deaths among persons ≥65 yrs of age, from 29 European cities, have been collected. Data on other pollutants and meteorological variables, to adjust for confounding effects and data on city characteristics, to investigate potential effect modification, were also recorded. For individual city analysis, generalised additive models extending Poisson regression, using a locally weighted regression (LOESS) smoother to control for seasonal effects, were applied. To combine individual city results and explore effect modification, second stage regression models were applied. The per cent increase (95% confidence intervals), associated with a 10 µg·m−3 increase in PM10, in the elderly daily number of deaths was 0.8% (0.7–0.9%) and the corresponding number for BS was 0.6% (0.5–0.8%). The effect size was modified by the long-term average levels of nitrogen dioxide (higher levels were associated with larger effects), temperature (larger effects were observed in warmer countries), and by the proportion of the elderly in each city (a larger proportion was associated with higher effects). These results indicate that ambient particles have effects on mortality among the elderly, with relative risks comparable or slightly higher than those observed for total mortality and similar effect modification patterns. The effects among the older persons are of particular importance, since the attributable number of events will be much larger, compared to the number of deaths among the younger population.

Investigating the dose-response relation between air pollution and total mortality in the APHEA-2 multicity project

Background: Several recent studies have reported significant health effects of air pollution even at low levels of air pollutants, but in most of these studies linear non-threshold relations were assumed. Aims: To investigate the NO2 mortality dose-response association in nine cities participating in the APHEA-2 project using two different methods: the meta-smooth and the cubic spline method. Methods: The meta-smooth method developed by Schwartz and Zanobetti is based on combining individual city non-parametric smooth curves; the cubic spline method developed within the APHEA-2 project combines individual city estimates of cubic spline shaped dose-response relations. The meta-smooth method is easier and faster to implement, but the cubic spline method is more flexible for further investigation of possible heterogeneity in the dose-response curves among cities. Results: In the range of the pollutant common to all cities the two methods gave similar and comparable curves. Using the cubic spline method it was found that smoking prevalence acts as an effect modifier with larger NO2 effects on mortality at lower smoking prevalence. Conclusions: The NO2–mortality association in the cities included in the present analysis, could be adequately estimated using the linear model. However, investigation of the city specific dose-response curves should precede the application of linear models.

Intake of specific flavonoid classes and coronary heart disease--a case-control study in Greece.

Objective: Dietary intake of flavonoids has been reported to protect against coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, but associations of specific classes of flavonoids with CHD have not been adequately studied.Design: Hospital-based case–control study relying on interviewer administered questionnaires.Setting: Cardiology Department of the University of Athens Medical School in the Hippokrateion General Hospital (1990–1991).Subjects: Cases were 329 patients with electrocardiographically confirmed first coronary infarct or a first positive coronary arteriogram, or both (participation fraction 93%). Controls were 570 patients admitted to the same hospital for minor conditions unrelated to nutrition (participation fraction 95%). All cases and controls were interviewed in the hospital wards by experienced interviewers, and a 110-item food frequency questionnaire was administered.Results: There was statistically significant evidence (P∼0.03) for an inverse association between intake of flavan-3-ols and CHD risk, an increase of about 21 mg per day corresponding to a 24% decrease in CHD risk. The inverse association between flavan-3-ols and CHD risk was largely accounted for by the intake of wine and to a lesser extent tea. For none of the other flavonoid classes was there statistically significant evidence of an association.Conclusion: Flavan-3-ols, which are largely found in wine and tea, are inversely associated with, and may be protective against, coronary heart disease.

The temporal pattern of mortality responses to ambient ozone in the APHEA project

Background: The temporal pattern of effects of summertime ozone (O3) in total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality were investigated in 21 European cities participating in the APHEA-2 (Air Pollution and Health: a European Approach) project, which is fundamental in determining the importance of the effect in terms of life loss. Methods: Data from each city were analysed separately using distributed lag models with up to 21 lags. City-specific air pollution estimates were regressed on city-specific covariates to obtain overall estimates and to explore sources of possible heterogeneity. Results: Stronger effects on respiratory mortality that extend to a period of 2 weeks were found. A 10 μg/m3 increase in O3 was associated with a 0.36% (95% CI −0.21% to 0.94%) increase in respiratory deaths for lag 0 and with 3.35% (95% CI 1.90% to 4.83%) for lags 0–20. Significant adverse health effects were found of summer O3 (June–August) on total and cardiovascular mortality that persist up to a week, but are counterbalanced by negative effects thereafter. Conclusions: The results indicate that studies on acute health effects of O3 using single-day exposures may have overestimated the effects on total and cardiovascular mortality, but underestimated the effects on respiratory mortality.

Insulin-like growth factor levels in cord blood, birth weight and breast cancer risk

Breast cancer incidence and birth weight are higher among Caucasian than Asian women, and birth size has been positively associated with breast cancer risk. Pregnancy hormone levels, however, have been generally lower in Caucasian than Asian women. We studied components of the insulin-like growth factor (IGF) system in cord blood from 92 singleton babies born in Boston, USA, and 110 born in Shanghai, China, in 1994–1995. Cord blood IGF-1 was significantly higher among Caucasian compared with Chinese babies (P<10−6). The opposite was noted for IGF-2 (P∼10−4). IGF-1 was significantly positively associated with birth weight and birth length in Boston, but not Shanghai. In contrast, stronger positive, though statistically non-significant, associations of IGF-2 with birth size were only evident in Shanghai. The associations of birth weight and birth length were positive and significant in taller women (for IGF-1 in Boston P∼0.003 and 0.03, respectively; for IGF-2 in Shanghai P∼0.05 and ∼0.04, respectively), among whom maternal anthropometry does not exercise strong constraints in foetal growth. The documentation of higher cord blood levels of IGF-1, a principal growth hormone that does not cross the placenta, among Caucasian than in Asian newborns is concordant with breast cancer incidence in these populations.