E. Terrence Jones

Political Change and Spending Shifts in the American States

one moves from state to state at a single point in time, changes in scores on various political factors are not associated with changes in various governmental expenditure variables after controlling for changes in certain socioeconomic conditions. This body of research, however, reveals very little as to whether changes in political factors in a single state from one point in time to the next are associated with changes in state expenditures, again controlling for changes in socioeconomic conditions. The little work which has been done is inconclusive. Sharkansky (1968) analyzed changes, by category, in state government expenditures for eleven periods from 1903 to 1965. Although, as one might expect, he found high correlations between expenditures for any two consecutive points in time,

Pursuing the Early Voter: Does the Early Bird Get the Worm?

ABSTRACT In the 2004 election, 30 states offered the option to vote before Election Day with no excuse (National Conference of State Legislators, 2004), up from 26 in 2002. For parties, interest groups, and campaigns that have begun early voting campaign efforts, have the efforts changed the composition of the electorate—or are early voters largely similar to Election Day voters? By examining two battleground states from the 2002 midterm election in which the partisan, interest group, and campaign efforts were highly competitive, we are able to analyze this question. Drawing upon a unique panel survey including early, absentee, and Election Day voters in the 2002 Arkansas and Missouri midterm elections, we are able to analyze demographic and attitudinal information about voters, as well as issue preference and vote certainty over time. We show that early voters and Election Day voters are largely similar. We also show that while there is weak evidence that issue preference of early voters may change over time, vote choice is firm. Thus, we conclude that early voting campaigns may have limited effectiveness in mobilizing new voters or persuading voters to change their minds.

Reducing Overclaiming in Needs Assessment Studies an Experimental Comparison

A randomized experiment investigated the effect of various instructional sets on reducing agency awareness overclaiming, that is, claiming knowledge of fictitious agencies. As predicted, respondents who were warned that the list contained fake agencies exhibited less agency awareness overclaiming than respondents who were not warned. However, providing respondents a memory retrieval strategy had no effect on agency awareness overclaiming. A multivariate model, which included demographic variables, response style variables, and knowledge variables, explained 40% of the variance of agency awareness overclaiming.

Using Ecological Regression

Using Ecological Regression I am delighted to find that my examination of the ability of ecological regression to generate accurate estimates of individual-level voting behavior has stirred such interest among contributors to The Journal of Interdisciplinary History.I Cumulative work is rightfully regarded as an essential element in the development of new knowledge, and this is especially so when scholars attempt to assess the utility of a new methodological tool. The primary purpose of my contribution was to see if a technique which made some sense a priori seemed as efficacious after it had been applied to actual data. I found that it did. Kousser then supplemented my work by presenting a step-by-step exposition of the procedures for obtaining ecological regression estimates of individual proportions and by giving some additional evidence concerning the techniques ability to generate accurate descriptions. In addition, his contribution carries the discussion forward by showing how ecological regression can be extended from dichotomous to polychotomous groups, by highlighting the different substantive assumptions underlying the direct and indirect estimation methods, and by pointing out how to handle some practical problems which one confronts when using the ecological regression method.

Formula Feedback and Central Cities The Case of the Comprehensive Employment and Training Act

This study critically examines the measurement of the Comprehensive Employment and Training Acts key allocation variable, unemployment. The analysis indicates that (1) actual unemployment rates during the study period (September-November 1975) in the research site (City of St. Louis), as measured by three independently conducted surveys, are much higher than the official government estimates; and (2) the methods used by the U.S. Bureau of the Census and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to measure state and local unemployment have several weaknesses, some of which apparently lead to an under estimation of unemployment in older central cities.

Crime change patterns in American cities

Abstract A longitudinal analysis of the changes in crime rates between the late 1950s and 1970 in the 155 largest U.S. cities indicates that (1) there is virtually no relationship between the four major crimes against persons although there is strong mutual association between the four major crimes against property; (2) changes in racial composition account for more variation in changes in crime than do changes in income, thereby suggesting the need for more detailed studies of the noneconomic ways in which a citys racial composition affects crime incidence; and (3) there is a modest relationship between changes in the number of male youth and changes in certain types of crime. Since these findings are based on highly aggregated data with both known and unknown measurement errors, they must be treated cautiously.

Issue Saliency, Opinion-Holding, and Party Preference

notes that, in order to have any issue meaning for the vote decision, citizens must be aware of the issue’s existence, have an opinion, and perceive one party as being closer to his position.2 After applying these criteria to the citizens’ knowledge on a large number of issues, the Survey Research Center group concludes &dquo;that articulation between party program, party member opinion, and individual political decision is weak indeed.&dquo; 3 At the same time, the authors note that their tests might be unrealistic and, at one point, allude to a different perspective on the entire problem. After examining the differences between racial groups on a question involving discrimination, they remark: &dquo;Thus within parts of the population selected so as to isolate peculiar values, we find evidence of heightened intensity of opinion on issues relevant to those values; ... It is at these pressure points that issues are most