Earl J. Baker

Modeling the Hurricane Evacuation Response Curve

The objective of this study is to develop a hurricane evacuation response curve that is sensitive to the characteristics of the hurricane, the time of day, and the type and timing of evacuation notice issued. Two data sets from past hurricanes, Floyd in South Carolina and Andrew in southeastern Louisiana, were used for model development and testing. A model developed on the Hurricane Floyd data set produced plausible results when it was tested with a series of storm scenarios and different evacuation notice policies. The same model predicted evacuation response behavior for Hurricane Andrew that was similar to observed behavior.

A parcel-based GIS method for evaluating conformance of local land-use planning with a state mandate to reduce exposure to hurricane flooding

This article illustrates how a parcel-based geographic information system can be used to identify and quantify land-use changes within subareas of individual planning jurisdictions as the basis for evaluating the implementation of local land-use policies. We describe a method for using property-parcel polygons and property-appraiser tax-roll data to analyze the effects of changes in land use on the exposure of people and property to hurricane flooding in coastal communities in Florida. This method allows us to test the conformity of local government growth-management practices to a state mandate which calls for the limiting of development in hurricane hazard zones. We apply this method to analyze hurricane hazard exposure in Okaloosa County, which is a coastal county located in the Panhandle of Florida.

The Proof of the Planning Is in the Platting: An Evaluation of Florida's Hurricane Exposure Mitigation Planning Mandate

Problem: Floridas 1985 Growth Management Act required the states coastal communities to include policies for two types of hurricane hazard zones in their comprehensive plans: to direct populations away from coastal high hazard areas (CHHAs) and to maintain evacuation times within larger hurricane vulnerability zones (HVZs). State law requires local governments to initiate measures to implement these policies within one year of state approval of the local plan. Have communities complied with these state mandates? Purpose: This research aims to determine the extent to which post-plan residential development intensities within hurricane hazard zones conform to the states policy mandate and the degree to which success in this regard can be explained by the quality of local plan maps and policies. Methods: We conducted graphical analysis of development trends, and undertook quasi-experimental analysis of pre- and post-plan residential development inside and outside CHHAs, as well as analyzing correlations between plan quality and post-plan residential development intensity. We also conducted interviews for case studies. Results and conclusions: We found residential exposure to hurricane flood hazards to have increased substantially in the majority of 74 municipalities and 15 coastal counties in Florida after the state approved local comprehensive plans. Residential development inside CHHAs did not slow after plans were adopted by most of these coastal communities. We found better maps and stronger policies to be correlated with lower post-plan development intensity, but the policy quality effect, though not the map quality effect, disappeared after controlling for pre-plan development intensities. These results may be due in part to vesting of development approved prior to adopting the plans, pre-existing zoning entitlements, and Floridas 1995 property rights law. Takeaway for practice: State planning mandates aimed at managing development in critical areas are likely to have only marginal effects because of prior entitlements and the legal and political inertia of existing local plan policies and land development regulations. Research support: Research support was received from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Office of Sea Grant, the Florida Department of Community Affairs, and Florida State Universitys DeVoe Moore Center.

Sequential Logit Dynamic Travel Demand Model and Its Transferability

A dynamic hurricane evacuation travel demand model was estimated by using sequential logit with the data from Hurricane Floyd in South Carolina. The model was estimated on a random sample of 75% of the observations and applied to the remaining 25% as a test. In the test data, a total of 241 evacuations were predicted when 246 were observed, and the model estimated the number of evacuations in each 2-h period over 4 days with a root-mean-square error of 2.79 evacuations. Evacuation orders were modeled as a time-dependent variable. This significantly enhanced model performance over that achieved with evacuation orders as a stationary variable in previous work and provided the capability to analyze the impact of the type and timing of evacuation orders. That capability permits analyzing staged evacuation, in which areas are directed to evacuate in a sequence that optimizes network use. A model estimated on Hurricane Floyd evacuation data was transferred to Southeast Louisiana; its predictions were similar to evacuation behavior observed during Hurricane Andrew. With updating of the alternative specific constant of the transferred model to ensure the correct prediction of the total number of evacuations, the model predicted evacuation with a root-mean-square error of 4.53 evacuations per 6-h period. It was discovered that applying the same distance function to the two different hurricanes was a major source of error in model transfer. The representation of distance and its interactions with other variables need to be investigated further. The procedures and the information needed for model update warrant further study.

Impact of Offshore Nuclear Power Plants: Forecasting Visits to Nearby Beaches

A multiple method investigation was undertaken to project the impact of offshore nuclear power plants on beach visitation at adjacent beaches. (1) Related literature was reviewed concerning human adjustment to natural hazards, risk-taking behavior, and public attitudes toward nuclear power. (2) People were interviewed at beaches in three states with respect to: (a) intended avoidance of beaches near a hypothetical floating nuclear plant (FNP), (b) relative importance of proximity to a FNP, when compared to other beach attributes, (c) onshore-offshore preference for coastal nuclear plant location, (d) behavioral impact of the licensing of FNPs, (e) relative tourism impact of coastal nuclear plant compared to coastal coal-fired plant, (f) public concerns about nuclear safety, (g) public attitudes toward alternative energy sources, (h) public confidence in sources of information about nuclear power, (i) visual impact of a FNP, and (j) knowledge about nuclear power. (3) Four beach areas near currently operating coastal nuclear power plants were studied to assess impacts on tourism resulting from plant construction.

Public Attitudes toward Hazard Zone Controls

Abstract During the year following Hurricane Eloise (1975–76), residents of two northwest Florida cities affected by the storm were contacted three times to assess their attitudes toward restrictiv...

Are We Any Safer? Comprehensive Plan Impacts on Hurricane Evacuation and Shelter Demand in Florida

Five coastal counties in Florida were studied to assess the effect of state-mandated local comprehensive plan policies on hurricane evacuation clearance times and public shelter demand. Numbers of residential units in 2002 and at the time of plan approval were estimated from property parcel data. Abbreviated transportation models were used to calculate 2002 evacuation times and shelter demand and to ascertain the impacts of post-plan residential growth within hurricane hazard areas. Calculated increases in clearance times and shelter demand are not in concert with the states mandate to maintain or reduce clearance times. State law currently limits the leverage of the state planning agency to compel local governments to implement the required comprehensive plan policies. We recommend a concurrency management strategy that parallels the states requirement to provide adequate transportation facilities to accommodate the impacts of future residential growth. Such a policy could be employed in other states as well.

Empirical Studies of Public Response to Tornado and Hurricane Warnings in the United States

Three studies (Hanson, Vitek, and Hanson, 1979; Glass et al., 1980; Hodler, 1982), and to a lesser degree a fourth (Taylor, Zurcher, and Key, 1970), provide most of the survey data documenting public response to tornado warnings.

Geographical variations in hurricane risk and legislative response

Abstract Risk from the “natural event system”; of hurricanes varies greatly along the U.S. coastline, and so do the property and lives at risk. Damage potential from storm surge in the Miami area is less than a third that of the Tampa area. However, damage potential from winds in the Boston and New York areas exceeds that of either the Miami or Tampa areas. Passage of time since the great hurricane disasters near the turn of the century and improvements in the warning system may make coastal dwellers underestimate the likelihood of a hurricane catastrophe. But population growth near the coast has been more than three times the national average, and 10 of 58 coastal segments 50 miles in width more than doubled in population between 1960 and 1970. Twenty‐two segments increased by more than 25,000 people with six increasing by 150,000. Legislative response to the growing hazard has varied as widely as risk but is not clearly correlated with risk.

Development of a Time-Dependent Disaggregate Hurricane Evacuation Destination Choice Model

A time-dependent disaggregate destination choice model for evacuees from a hurricane is developed and tested in this paper. Using data from a survey conducted among South Carolina residents following Hurricane Floyd in 1999 as the basic information, dynamic information regarding the storm, the network, the destination zones, and decisions made by the emergency managers regarding the issuing of evacuation notices was added to the sample to provide a database that contained time-dependent data in 48 2-h time periods preceding landfall. Separate models were established for evacuees seeking shelter at the homes of friends and relatives and those who went to hotels and motels. The models describe destination choice in terms of time-dependent travel time between origin and destination, the amount of accommodation remaining in each zone in each time period, the estimated likelihood that the storm’s path takes it over a destination zone, the ethnic similarity between origin and destination zones, and the presence of a large metropolitan area and/or interstate highways in a destination zone. When estimating the performance of the models, their trip length frequency distributions are not significantly different to the observed trip length frequency distribution at the 95% level of significance. Applying the friend/relative model to the neighboring state of Georgia produced a trip length frequency diagram that had a similar pattern to the observed distribution but underestimated short-distance destinations and overestimated distant destinations.