Eberhard Jochem

Introduction to Energy Systems Modelling

SummaryThe energy demand and supply projections of the Swiss government funded by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy and carried out by a consortium of institutes and consulting companies are based on two types of energy models: macroeconomic general equilibrium models and bottom-up models for each sector. While the macroeconomic models are used to deliver the economic, demographic and policy framework conditions as well as the macroeconomic impacts of particular scenarios, the bottom-up models simulate the technical developments in the final energy sectors and try to optimise electricity generation under the given boundary conditions of a particular scenario. This introductory article gives an overview of some of the energy models used in Switzerland and — more importantly — some insights into current advanced energy system modelling practice pointing to the characteristics of the two modelling types and their advantages and limitations.

Obstacles to rational electricity use and measures to alleviate them

Abstract There is a large potential for economically justified efficiency improvement in electricity use but obstacles and market imperfections hinder it from being fully realized. Efficiency improvements are mostly group specific and have to be matched with a suitable mix of energy policy instruments. The obstacles and the cost-effective measures are described for three sectors — private households (including space heating and air-conditioning and electrical appliances), small and medium-sized companies, and small communities.

Plastics Streams in Germany: An Analysis of Production, Consumption and Waste Generation

This paper traces plastics streams through the German economy. A material flow simulation model is used to analyze the production of plastics products, their use and residence times in the economy and finally to calculate the present and future amounts of waste. We find that there is an indirect net export of plastics products incorporated in final products which amounts to 3–6% of domestic consumption. Residence times of plastics products range from a few months to 30 years and more, with the weighted average amounting to 14 years. In Germany, total post-consumer plastics waste will rise from 4.6 Mt in 1995 to 6.2–7.2 Mt in 2005 and could easily reach a value in the range of 12–14 Mt in 2025. At the same time, the accumulation of plastics in the economy will increase from about 72 Mt in 1995 to 180 Mt in 2025 in the business-as-usual scenario. The share of waste from long-lived products will continue to grow in the next decades. For polyolefins, PVC and polystyrene in plastics waste, we expect that the total amounts will more than double within the next 25 years. Analyses as presented in this paper can help to establish strategic waste management policies.

Society, Behaviour, and Climate Change Mitigation

Preface. Introduction. Incorporating Behavioural, Social, and Organizational Phenomena in the Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Options J.A.S. Laitner, et al. Cultural Discourses in the Global Climate Change Debate S. Ney, M. Thompson. Consumption, Motivation and Choice Across Scale: Consequences For Selected Target Groups M. Thompson. The Legacy of Twenty Years of Energy Demand Management: we know more about Individual Behaviour but next to Nothing about Demand H. Wilhite, et al. Group Identity, Personal Ethics and Sustainable Development Suggesting New Directions for Social Marketing Research J. Moisander. European Narratives about Human Nature, Society and the Good Life L. Michaelis. Gender-Specific Patterns of Poverty and (Over-)Consumption in Developing and Developed Countries M. Hemmati. Climate Change and Relative Consumption R.B. Howarth. Social Interactions and Conditions for Change in Energy-Related Decision-Making in SMCs - an empirical socio-economic analysis S. Ramesohl. Motivation and decision criteria for energy efficiency in private households, companies and administrations in Russia I. Gritsevich. List of Editors and Authors. List of Reviewers, Rapporteurs, and Discussants.

Energy conservation indicators

Energy Conservation Indicators are the result of a detailed analysis of energy consumption data of ten member states of the European Community. Using a method that breaks down energy consumption data into their component parts, the book presents a detailed and consistent basis for measuring energy intensity and efficiency for the period from 1979 to 1984.

R&D and Innovation Policy - Preconditions for Making Steps Towards a 2000 Watt/Cap Society

The paper reports on the methodology and results of several studies on the long-term efficiency potentials in the two energy transformation steps from primary energy to final and useful energy and, more importantly, from useful energy to energy services. The examination of these potentials considers the lifetimes and periods of refurbishment of manufactured artefacts: Buildings and infrastructure that will save or waste energy in 2050 that are being built or restored today. The paper emphasises the enormous size of energy conservation potentials achievable not only by reducing energy losses but also by decreasing the specific activity levels for several energy services through improved material efficiency and intensified use of products, plants, and vehicles. It also reports on major definitive conclusions on R&D needs and challenges to R&D-policies as well as immediate policy action in OECD-countries in order to realise the vision of reducing primary energy use per capita by two thirds in industrialised countries within the next five decades.

Reducing CO2 emissions -- the West German plan

Abstract The Enquete-Commission on ‘Preventive Measures to Protect the Earths Atmosphere’ of the German Bundestag has proposed a 30% reduction target for CO 2 emissions by the year 2005 for Germany, of 20–25% for the European Community and 5% worldwide, which would allow developing countries an increase in CO 2 emissions of 50%. The Enquete-Commission expects that one half of this reduction target could be achieved by more efficient energy-use (−17% on top of trend energy savings) and by modifications in consumer behaviour (−5%). This ambitious vision is not inconsistent with the available technical and theoretical potential for rational energy-use. The German Cabinet has taken up the issue and voted for a 25% reduction in CO 2 emissions by 2005, relative to 1987, including the former East Germany. A few other countries, Denmark, the Netherlands, New Zealand and Australia, have decided to aim for similar reduction targets. In most cases, the efficient use of energy is expected to be the major contributer to achieving these targets. The necessary changes in energy and transportation policy will be substantial and represent a complete turn-around of the ‘wait and see’ policy of the last five years.

Carbon use for synthetic materials in Germany — current situation and saving potentials for energy and CO2

Abstract This study deals with the use of fossil carbon (oil, natural gas, coal) to manufacture materials (‘products of non-energy use’) and with the potential to reduce the inputs of fossil resources and the emissions of fossil CO2 in Germany. An overview of the material flows is given for Germany in 1995. Recycled and re-used products still accounted for less than 10% of the end products consumed domestically. The energy requirements and CO2 emissions from the production and waste management processes related to non-energy use have been calculated: it is estimated that approximately 1700 PJ of finite primary energy are consumed and 57 Mt of fossil CO2 emissions are released (1995). Compared with the total German industry (without non-energy use) this represents 44% of the energy use and 20% of the fossil CO2 emissions. Detailed analyses are performed in order to determine the extent to which the energy consumed by and the CO2 emissions released from this system could be reduced. This is done by estimating the possible effects of (a) using waste as a resource, and (b) using biomass as a feedstock. In the first group recycling, re-use and enhanced energy recovery are investigated for plastics, discarded tyres, technical rubber products, asphalt, industrial bitumen and waste lubricants. The second group, i.e. the analysed bio-based materials, comprises of oleochemical surfactants, lubricants from vegetable oils, starch polymers and selected bulk chemicals. The total potential savings related to waste use and biomass use (see above (a) and (b)) are estimated at 220 PJ of gross finite energy and 14 Mt of gross fossil CO2. This is the equivalent of a 13% saving in energy and a 24% reduction in CO2 emissions. Hence, the saving potential identified on the non-energy side is comparable with the saving potential discussed and negotiated for CO2 mitigation through energy efficiency improvements.

From primary to final energy consumption : Analysing structural and efficiency changes on the energy supply side

Abstract A methodology for analysing changes in Total Primary Energy Consumption (TPC) and the ratio of Total Primary to Total Final Energy Consumption (TFC) is presented using the principles of factor analysis. It allows us to separate influences of trade with transformation products, changes in structure of energy carriers, and changes in transformation structure and efficiency. The approach is applied to analyse West Germanys recent TPC changes and as a means to compare trends in TPC/TFC across a set of European countries. It therefore adds to the interpretation of widely used indicators such as primary and final energy intensity. Amongst others, the global influence of electricity and natural gas penetration, nuclear and CHP programmes on TPC are consistently quantified and compared along with the import or export effects of transformation products. An evaluation of actual trends and the policy elements behind is therefore made possible.

Voluntary Agreements as an Instrument to Substitute Regulating and Economic Instruments. Lessons from the German Voluntary Agreements on CO2 Reduction

Declarations and voluntary agreements of individual industrial associations or large companies have been increasingly discussed and practised in attempts to limit CFC production and emissions, to increase the energy efficiency of massproduced products, and to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions in the industrialized countries. The hypothesis which is explicitly, or implicitly, assumed for this instrument is that the actors using it in individual branches and companies can achieve similar environmental benefits as dictated by the state in regulations or taxes, but at lower costs (CEC, 1996; lEA, 1995; Solsbery and Wiederkehr, 1995; van Dunne, 1993; Schafhausen, 1994). For several years, German industry has been signalling its interest in voluntary agreements through talks between the head organisation of German industrial associations, BDI, a few member associations and the Federal Government. The industry sees such agreements as their contribution to climate protection if regulating or price measures of the state, i.e. the impending heat recovery ordinance and CO2 /energy tax, could be avoided or delayed. A similar situation also exists in the Netherlands. The German economy, which is represented by the BDI as well as by several associations of the energy supply sector, is convinced that improving energy efficiency and reducing CO2 emissions are more likely to be achieved at a reasonable cost through voluntary agreements with clear targets than by imposing a CO2 /energy tax or regulation (BDI, 1995). In support of this position, the industry argues that, on the one hand, energy-intensive branches introduce, when it comes to reinvestments, the most recent and energy-efficient technologies anyway, and that, on the other hand, energy-related regulation