Ed Garrett

Great tsunamigenic earthquakes during the past 1000 yr on the Alaska megathrust

Large to great earthquakes and related tsunamis generated on the Alaska megathrust produce major hazards for both the area of rupture and heavily populated coastlines around much of the Pacific Ocean. Recent modeling studies suggest that single-segment ruptures, as well as multi-segment, 1964-type ruptures, can produce great earthquakes, >M8, and significant hazards both in the near field and to distant locations through the generation of tsunamis. We present new paleoseismological data from Kodiak Island and a new analysis of radiocarbon data based on Bayesian age modeling to combine our observations with previous geological, historical, and archaeological investigations. We suggest that, in addition to multi-segment ruptures in A.D. 1964 and 1020–1150 (95% age estimate), a single-segment rupture occurred in 1788, with coseismic land-surface deformation across Kodiak Island and a tsunami that is recorded in historical documents and in sediment sequences, and another, similar rupture of the same Kodiak segment at A.D. 1440–1620. These indicate shorter intervals between ruptures of the Kodiak segment than previously assumed, and more frequent ruptures than for the Prince William Sound segment.

Historical Nankai-Suruga megathrust earthquakes recorded by tsunami and terrestrial mass movement deposits on the Shirasuka coastal lowlands, Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan:

Geological investigations of coastal sediment sequences play a key role in verifying earthquake and tsunami characteristics inferred from historical records. In this paper, we present a multi-proxy investigation of a coastal lowland site facing the Nankai-Suruga megathrust and appraise evidence for tsunamis and earthquake-triggered terrestrial mass movements occurring over the last 800 years. Combining a high-resolution chronology with X-ray computed tomography and analyses of particle size, diatoms, pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs and aerial photographs, we present the most compelling geological evidence of the 1361 CE Kōan (also known as Shōhei) tsunami reported to date from any site along the megathrust. This finding is consistent with either of two recent hypotheses: a single larger rupture of both the Nankai and Tōnankai regions or two smaller ruptures separated by a few days. Enhancing the site chronology using Bayesian age modelling, we verify evidence for inundation during the 1498 CE Meiō tsunami. While previous investigations identified evidence for historically recorded tsunamis in 1605, 1707 and 1854 CE and a storm surge in 1680 or 1699 CE, we encountered a thick sand layer rather than discrete extreme wave deposits in this interval. The overprinting of evidence highlights the potential for geological records to underestimate the frequency of these events. A terrestrial mass movement also deposited a sand layer at the site; radionuclide dating and aerial photographs provide independent confirmation that this may have been triggered by intense shaking in 1944 CE during the most recent great Nankai-Suruga megathrust earthquake.