Edmond Hansen

One more step toward a warmer Arctic

This study was motivated by a strong warming signal seen in mooring-based and oceanographic survey data collected in 2004 in the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean. The source of this and earlier Arctic Ocean changes lies in interactions between polar and sub-polar basins. Evidence suggests such changes are abrupt, or pulse-like, taking the form of propagating anomalies that can be traced to higher-latitudes. For example, an anomaly found in 2004 in the eastern Eurasian Basin took ∼1.5 years to propagate from the Norwegian Sea to the Fram Strait region, and additional ∼4.5–5 years to reach the Laptev Sea slope. While the causes of the observed changes will require further investigation, our conclusions are consistent with prevailing ideas suggesting the Arctic Ocean is in transition towards a new, warmer state.

Arctic Ocean Warming Contributes to Reduced Polar Ice Cap

Analysis of modern and historical observations demonstrates that the temperature of the intermediate-depth (150–900 m) Atlantic water (AW) of the Arctic Ocean has increased in recent decades. The AW warming has been uneven in time; a local 1°C maximum was observed in the mid-1990s, followed by an intervening minimum and an additional warming that culminated in 2007 with temperatures higher than in the 1990s by 0.24°C. Relative to climatology from all data prior to 1999, the most extreme 2007 temperature anomalies of up to 1°C and higher were observed in the Eurasian and Makarov Basins. The AW warming was associated with a substantial (up to 75–90 m) shoaling of the upper AW boundary in the central Arctic Ocean and weakening of the Eurasian Basin upper-ocean stratification. Taken together, these observations suggest that the changes in the Eurasian Basin facilitated greater upward transfer of AW heat to the ocean surface layer. Available limited observations and results from a 1D ocean column model support this surmised upward spread of AW heat through the Eurasian Basin halocline. Experiments with a 3D coupled ice–ocean model in turn suggest a loss of 28–35 cm of ice thickness after 50 yr in response to the 0.5 W m−2 increase in AW ocean heat flux suggested by the 1D model. This amount of thinning is comparable to the 29 cm of ice thickness loss due to local atmospheric thermodynamic forcing estimated from observations of fast-ice thickness decline. The implication is that AW warming helped precondition the polar ice cap for the extreme ice loss observed in recent years.

Variation of Measured Heat Flow Through the Fram Strait Between 1997 and 2006

The northernmost extension of the Atlantic-wide overturning circulation consists of the flow of Atlantic Water through the Arctic Ocean. Two passages form the gateways for warm and saline Atlantic Water to the Arctic: the shallow Barents Sea and the Fram Strait which is the only deep connection between the Arctic and the World Ocean. The flows through both passages rejoin in the northern Kara Sea and continue in a boundary current along the Arctic Basin rim and ridges (Aagaard 1989; Rudels et al. 1994). In the Arctic, dramatic water mass conversions take place and the warm and saline Atlantic Water is modified by cooling, freezing and melting as well as by admixture of river run-off to become shallow Polar Water, ice and saline deep water. The return flow of these waters to the south through the Fram Strait and the Canadian Archipelago closes the Atlantic Water loop through the Arctic. In the past century the Arctic Ocean evidenced close relation to global climate variation. Global surface air, upper North Atlantic Waters and Arctic intermediate waters showed coherently high temperatures in the middle of the last century and also in the past decades (Polyakov et al. 2003; Polyakov et al. 2004; Delworth and Knutson 2000). A likely candidate for this tight oceanic link is the flow through the Fram Strait. Through the Barents/Kara Sea, only the upper layer (200 m) of Atlantic Water can pass – thereby loosing much of its heat to the atmosphere – while the Fram Strait (sill depth 2,600 m) is deep enough to enable the through-flow of Atlantic Water at intermediate levels.

The Arctic Ocean in summer: a quasi-synoptic inverse estimate of boundary fluxes and water mass transformation

The first quasi-synoptic estimates of Arctic Ocean and sea ice net fluxes of volume, heat and freshwater are calculated by application of an inverse model to data around the ocean boundary. Hydrographic measurements from four gateways to the Arctic (Bering, Davis and Fram Straits, and the Barents Sea Opening) completely enclose the ocean, and were made within the same 32-day period in summer 2005. The inverse model is formulated as a set of full-depth and density-layer-specific volume and salinity transport conservation equations, with conservation constraints also applied to temperature, but only in non-outcropping layers. The model includes representations of Fram Strait sea ice export and of interior Arctic Ocean diapycnal fluxes. The results show that in summer 2005 the transport-weighted mean properties are, for water entering the Arctic: potential temperature 4.53?C, salinity 34.50 and potential density (?0) 27.33 kg m-3; and for water leaving the Arctic, including sea ice: 0.25?C, 33.81 and 27.14 kg m-3, respectively. The net effect of the Arctic in summer is to freshen and cool the inflows by 0.69 in salinity and 4.28 ?C, respectively, and to decrease density by 0.19 kg m-3. The volume transport into the Arctic of waters above ~1000 m depth is 9.2 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s-1), and the export (similarly) is 9.3 Sv. The net oceanic and sea ice freshwater flux is 186 {plus minus} 48 mSv. The net heat flux (including sea ice) is 192 {plus minus} 37 TW, representing loss from the ocean to the atmosphere.

Spatial variability of chlorophyll-a in the Marginal Ice Zone of the Barents Sea, with relations to sea ice and oceanographic conditions

Abstract The distribution of chlorophyll- a in the Barents Sea was observed from the optical satellite instrument Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) during May 1999. In the same period water samples were collected in situ and analysed. Contrary to previous studies of phytoplankton distribution in the Barents Sea, we rigourously analysed the chlorophyll- a distribution characteristics with respect to sea ice and oceanographic conditions, spatially and temporally. The spatial distribution of surface chlorophyll- a was analysed and related, statistically, to the ice edge and sea ice concentrations from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) satellite instrument. The highest chlorophyll- a concentrations were observed near the ice edge, and then decreased further into the ice. The spatial variability of the chlorophyll- a concentrations in this region was high, even in open water along the ice edge. The chlorophyll- a observations indicated a strong primary bloom about 2 weeks after the ice edge had retreated from a given measurement point. There were also indications of several minor blooms about 2 weeks after the initial bloom. The vertical distributions of chlorophyll- a are presented for nine different stations in the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) of the northern Barents Sea and discussed in terms of simultaneously measured temperature–salinity CTD profiles. Water mass properties and sea ice history have a significant impact on the vertical distribution of phytoplankton. The surface chlorophyll- a concentration was about 60% higher (±70% S.D.) than the total column average. The correlation coefficient was 0.87, indicating that surface values are good predictors for relative levels of total phytoplankton biomass during spring conditions. We propose a method to identify the stage of the phytoplankton bloom based on satellite observations of chlorophyll- a , temperature, salinity and sea ice history. Based on an extensive set of field measurements at different times from many locations in the Barents Sea, we have produced empirical formulae to estimate the integrated chlorophyll- a content for the water column from surface (satellite) measurements during early spring (homogeneous water masses) and bloom conditions.

Fate of early 2000s Arctic warm water pulse

The water mass structure of the Arctic Ocean is remarkable, for its intermediate (depth range ~150–900 m) layer is filled with warm (temperature >0°C) and salty water of Atlantic origin (usually called the Atlantic Water, AW). This water is carried into and through the Arctic Ocean by the pan-Arctic boundary current, which moves cyclonically along the basins’ margins (Fig. 1). This system provides the largest input of water, heat, and salt into the Arctic Ocean; the total quantity of heat is substantial, enough to melt the Arctic sea ice cover several times over. By utilizing an extensive archive Fate of Early 2000s Arctic Warm Water Pulse of recently collected observational data, this study provides a cohesive picture of recent large-scale changes in the AW layer of the Arctic Ocean. These recent observations show the warm pulse of AW that entered the Arctic Ocean in the early 1990s finally reached the Canada Basin during the 2000s. The second warm pulse that entered the Arctic Ocean in the mid-2000s has moved through the Eurasian Basin and is en route downstream. One of the most intriguing results of these observations is the realization of the possibility of uptake of anomalous AW heat by overlying layers, with possible implications for an already-reduced Arctic ice cover.

Evidence of Arctic sea ice thinning from direct observations

The Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly shrinking, but a direct, longer-term assessment of the ice thinning remains challenging. A new time series constructed from in situ measurements of sea ice thickness at the end of the melt season in Fram Strait shows a thinning by over 50% during 2003-2012. The modal and mean ice thickness along 79 degrees N decreased at a rate of 0.3 and 0.2 m yr(-1), respectively, with long-term averages of 2.5 and 3 m. Airborne observations reveal an east-west thickness gradient across the strait in spring but not in summer due to advection from more different source regions. There is no clear relationship between interannual ice thickness variability and the source regions of the ice. The observed thinning is therefore likely a result of Arctic-wide reduction in ice thickness with a potential shift in exported ice types playing a minor role.

Observational program tracks Arctic Ocean transition to a warmer state

Over the past several decades, the Arctic Ocean has undergone substantial change. Enhanced transport of warmer air from lower latitudes has led to increased Arctic surface air temperature. Concurrent reductions in Arctic ice extent and thickness have been documented. The first evidence of warming in the intermediate Atlantic Water (AW, water depth between 150 and 900 meters) of the Arctic Ocean was found in 1990. Another anomaly, found in 2004, suggests that the Arctic Ocean is in transition toward a new, warmer state [Polyakov et al., 2005, and references therein].

Characteristics of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in the Arctic outflow in the Fram Strait: Assessing the changes and fate of terrigenous CDOM in the Arctic Ocean

Absorption coefficients of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) were measured together with salinity, delta O-18, and inorganic nutrients across the Fram Strait. A pronounced CDOM absorption maximum between 30 and 120 m depth was associated with river and sea ice brine enriched water, characteristic of the Arctic mixed layer and upper halocline waters in the East Greenland Current (EGC). The lowest CDOM concentrations were found in the Atlantic inflow. We show that the salinity-CDOM relationship is not suitable for evaluating conservative mixing of CDOM. The strong correlation between meteoric water and CDOM is indicative of the riverine/terrigenous origin of CDOM in the EGC. Based on CDOM absorption in Polar Water and comparison with an Arctic river discharge weighted mean, we estimate that a 49-59% integrated loss of CDOM absorption across 250-600 nm has occurred. A preferential removal of absorption at longer wavelengths reflects the loss of high molecular weight material. In contrast, CDOM fluxes through the Fram Strait using September velocity fields from a high-resolution ocean-sea ice model indicate that the net southward transport of terrigenous CDOM through the Fram Strait equals up to 50% of the total riverine CDOM input; this suggests that the Fram Strait export is a major sink of CDOM. These contrasting results indicate that we have to constrain the (C)DOM budgets for the Arctic Ocean much better and examine uncertainties related to using tracers to assess conservative mixing in polar waters. Citation: Granskog, M. A., C. A. Stedmon, P. A. Dodd, R. M. W. Amon, A. K. Pavlov, L. de Steur, and E. Hansen (2012), Characteristics of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in the Arctic outflow in the Fram Strait: Assessing the changes and fate of terrigenous CDOM in the Arctic Ocean, J. Geophys. Res., 117, C12021, doi:10.1029/2012JC008075.

The freshwater composition of the Fram Strait outflow derived from a decade of tracer measurements

The composition of the Fram Strait freshwater outflow is investigated by comparing 10 sections of concurrent salinity, ?18O, nitrate and phosphate measurements collected between 1997 and 2011. The largest inventories of net sea ice meltwater are found in 2009, 2010 and 2011. The 2009–2011 sections are also the first to show positive fractions of sea ice meltwater at the surface near the core of the EGC. Sections from September 2009–2011 show an increased input of sea ice meltwater at the surface relative to older September sections. This suggests that more sea ice now melts back into the surface in late summer than previously. Comparison of April, July and September sections reveals seasonal variations in the inventory of positive sea ice meltwater, with maximum inventories in September sections. The time series of sections reveals a strong anti-correlation between meteoric water and net sea ice meltwater inventories, suggesting that meteoric water and brine may be delivered to Fram Strait together from a common source. We find that the freshwater outflow at Fram Strait exhibits a similar meteoric water to net sea ice meltwater ratio as the central Arctic Ocean and Siberian shelves, suggesting that much of the sea ice meltwater and meteoric water at Fram Strait may originate from these regions. However, we also find that the ratio of meteoric water to sea ice meltwater inventories at Fram Strait is decreasing with time, due to an increased surface input of sea ice meltwater in recent sections.