Edmund C. Penning-Rowsell

Vulnerability to flooding: health and social dimensions

This paper presents research results on the impacts that floods can have on the people affected, thus complementing the existing data on the monetary losses liable to occur in flood events. Both datasets should be used when deciding on investment in flood defence measures. We report on research on the vulnerability of flood–affected communities to adverse health effects, and the development of an index of community vulnerability based on extensive focus–group research and secondary–source census data.

Floods as Catalysts for Policy Change: Historical Lessons from England and Wales

The tied relationship between flood disasters and the demand for a policy response is well known. What is not well known is how and why particular policy ideas emerge as policy change options. Drawing on the public policy theoretical literature, the paper evaluates the policy impact of four of the most significant flood disasters in England and Wales in the past 50 years. In so doing, it seeks to highlight which of the environmental, contextual and behavioural drivers have, in the past, been critical factors in the elevation of policy options to policy agendas. By monitoring changes in such drivers we can offer an understanding of the potential policy changes that may occur in response to flood disasters in the future.

Floods : a geographical perspective

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Quantified scenarios analysis of drivers and impacts of changing flood risk in England and Wales: 2030–2100

Abstract Flood risk to the economy, society and the environment reflects the cumulative effects of environmental and socio-economic change over decades. Long-term scenarios are therefore required in order to develop robust and sustainable flood risk management policies. Quantified national-scale flood risk analysis and expert appraisal of the mechanisms causing change in flood risk have been used to assess flood risk in England and Wales over the period 2030–2100. The assessment involved the use of socio-economic and climate change scenarios. The analysis predicts increasing flood risk unless current flood management policies, practices and investment levels are changed—up to 20-fold increase in economic risk by the 2080s in the scenario with highest economic growth. The increase is attributable to a combination of climate change (in particular increasing precipitation and relative sea level rise in parts of the UK) and increasing socio-economic vulnerability, particularly in terms of household/industrial contents and infrastructure vulnerability. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.

The English beach: experiences and values

This paper reports on a decade of empirical research on the experiences and perceptions of English beach users. Surveys have been conducted at 15 locations and interviews held with nearly 4000 people to gain insights into the meanings that beach experiences have for them, and the values that they attach to these and their associations. This research indicates that the dominant meanings of beaches for those interviewed are linked to concepts of naturalness and their own personal experiences in childhood and earlier years, while the values relate to the associations that beaches have, and to the games and other activities carried out there. There is a strong conservative tendency in the wish to see the coastal status quo maintained, despite the fact that the typical English beach of the resort type mainly surveyed here is actively managed and is the product of intensive human intervention.

Flood risk assessments at different spatial scales

Managing flood risk, i.e. both the hazard and the potential consequences, is an important aspect of adapting to global change and has gained much traction in recent decades. As a result, a priori flood risk assessments have become an important part of flood management practices. Many methodologies have been set up, ranging from global risk assessments for the world as a whole, to local assessments for a particular stretch of a river/coast or small town. Most assessment frameworks generally follow a similar approach, but there are also notable differences between assessments at different spatial scales. This review article examines these differences, for instance those related to the methodology, use of assessments and uncertainties. From this review, future research needs are identified in order to improve flood risk assessments at different scales. At global/continental scale, there is a clear need for harmonised information on flood defences to improve assessments. Furthermore, inclusions of indirect economic effects at the macro-/meso-scale would give a better indication of the total effects of catastrophic flooding. At the meso-/micro-scale, there is an urgent need to improve our understanding of the effects of flooding on critical infrastructures, given their importance to society, the economy, emergency management and reconstruction. An overarching theme at all scales is the validation of flood risk assessments, which is often limited. More detailed post-disaster information would allow for improved calibration, validation and thus performance of flood risk models. Lastly, the link between spatial scales also deserves attention, for instance up- or downscaling methodologies.

Adaptive flood risk management planning based on a comprehensive flood risk conceptualisation

Densely populated deltas are so vulnerable to sea level rise and climate change that they cannot wait for global mitigation to become effective. The Netherlands therefore puts huge efforts in adaptation research and planning for the future, for example through the national research programme Knowledge for Climate and the Delta Programme for the Twenty-first century. Flood risk is one of the key issues addressed in both programmes. Adaptive management planning should rely on a sound ex-ante policy analysis which encompasses a future outlook, establishing whether a policy transition is required, an assessment of alternative flood risk management strategies, and their planning in anticipation without running the risk of regret of doing too little too late or too much too early. This endeavour, addressed as adaptive delta management, calls for new approaches, especially because of uncertainties about long-term future developments. For flood risk management, it also entails reconsideration of the underlying principles and of the application of portfolios of technical measures versus spatial planning and other policy instruments. To this end, we first developed a conceptualisation of flood risk which reconciles the different approaches of flood defence management practice and spatial planning practice in order to bridge the gap between these previously detached fields. Secondly, we looked abroad in order to be better able to reflect critically on a possible Dutch bias which could have resulted from many centuries of experience of successful adaptation to increasing flood risk, but which may no longer be sustainable into the future. In this paper, we explain the multiple conceptualisation of flood risk and argue that explicitly distinguishing exposure determinants as a new concept may help to bridge the gap between engineers and spatial planners, wherefore we show how their different conceptualisations influence the framing of the adaptation challenge. Also, we identify what the Netherlands may learn from neighbouring countries with a different framing of the future flood risk challenge.

Who Benefits and Who Loses from Flood Risk Reduction

The distributional effects of investment for the reduction of flood risk are explored, with the UK as an example. Using three case studies, we initially investigate the ‘gainers’ and the ‘losers’ from three contrasting engineering-oriented flood alleviation and land drainage schemes, the results of which appear to show that property owners at risk of flooding were the gainers and the general flood-free taxpayer was the loser. An analysis of flood damages, however, shows that those losing work from repairing or replacing flood damaged goods are a primary loser group as risk is reduced. Investigating insurance cover for flooding (near-universal in the UK) also shows that the principal real gainers appear to be insurance companies and their shareholders, since premiums generally do not appear to fall as risk is reduced. The implication of these novel results are evaluated both for the UK and, briefly, for elsewhere in the world.

Explaining differences in flood management approaches in Europe and in the USA – a comparative analysis

Flood risk management in Europe and worldwide is not static but constantly in a state of flux. There has been a trend towards more integrated flood risk management in many countries. However, the initial situation and the pace and direction of change is very different in the various countries. In this paper, we will present a conceptual framework that seeks to explain why countries opt for different flood risk management portfolios. The developed framework utilises insights from a range of policy science concepts in an integrated way and considers, among others, factors such as geographical characteristics, the experience with flood disasters, as well as human behavioural aspects.

Inherent conflicts at the coast

Because choice is conflict, decision-making is necessarily about conflict resolution. Choices are necessary because the options are mutually exclusive but the nature of this inherent conflict varies. Typically, these conflicts are multidimensional. In coasal zones, the complex interactions between systems makes decision-making particularly complex; in particular, environmental interests are themselves frequently in conflict. In making a choice, it is important to determine why that choice is necessary in the first place.There are further conflicts about the objectives to be satisfied by the decision process; between the determination of the best outcome and the best decision process. Social scientists centre upon the requirement for a fair decision process rather than upon seeking an optimum outcome. Unlike physical scientists who seek more and better information, social scientists focus upon the development and maintenance of institutions.